Decline in Purchase Prices
Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine continue to fall due to reduced export demand and increased competition from Russia and other Black Sea countries. Despite world quotations gradually recovering from a three-year low, and increasing by 1.4-3.4% over the week on forecasts of decreased harvests in the EU, the local market remains pressured.
Harvest Progress and Yield
As of August 2, Ukraine harvested 19.441 million tons of wheat from 4.466 million hectares, with a yield of 4.35 tons per hectare, aligning with the USDA’s July forecast of 19.5 million tons.
Price Trends
Over the week, food wheat prices in Ukraine fell by $1-2 per ton to $195-205 per ton (UAH 9,300-9,600 per ton). Feed wheat prices also dropped by $1-3 per ton to $175-180 per ton (UAH 8,200-8,300 per ton).
Export Performance
Ukraine exported only 79,000 tons of wheat from August 1-5, compared to 156,000 tons in the same period last year. Overall, in the 2024/25 marketing year, wheat exports have reached 1.517 million tons, up from 0.977 million tons last year.
Global Wheat Futures
September wheat futures rose yesterday:
- Soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago increased by 0.7% to $199.33 per ton (+3.4% for the week, -5% for the month).
- Hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City rose by 0.2% to $206.32 per ton (+2.3%, -2.7%).
- Hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis climbed by 0.8% to $217.7 per ton (+2%, -4.3%).
- Wheat on the Paris Euronext went up by 1.1% to €218.25 per ton ($238.2 per ton) (+1.4%, -4.6%).
US and EU Harvest Updates
In the US, by August 4, winter wheat was harvested on 88% of the area (compared to 85% last year), and spring wheat on 6% (down from 8% last year). In the first two months of the 2024/25 marketing year, the US exported 3.539 million tons, 15.68% ahead of last year’s pace.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) representative in the EU revised the wheat harvest forecast for the EU in 2024/25 down from 130 to 127.4 million tons, marking a 5.9% decrease from the 2023/24 figure of 134.9 million tons. This reduction is attributed to lower production in Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and particularly in France, which is expected to harvest just 25 million tons, the smallest since 1983.
EU and Russian Export Data
According to the European Commission, wheat exports from the EU for July 29 – August 4 decreased by 14% from the previous week to 265,000 tons, totaling 2.18 million tons for the season, 39% lower than last year’s pace.
In July, Russia exported 3.6 million tons of wheat (including to EAEU countries), which is less than the 5 million tons in July 2023 but exceeds the five-year average of 3.1 million tons by 0.5 million tons.
Upcoming Egyptian Tender
On August 12, the Egyptian General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) will hold an international tender to purchase 3.8 million tons of wheat on an FOB basis with payment in 270 days, which could significantly support global wheat prices.
The Ukrainian wheat market is facing significant challenges due to reduced export demand and increased competition from neighboring countries. While global prices show signs of recovery, local prices continue to decline. The upcoming Egyptian tender may provide some relief, but stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptive to navigate these turbulent times. Monitoring global market trends and local conditions will be crucial for making informed decisions and maintaining stability in the Ukrainian wheat sector.