The global cinnamon market is experiencing a new wave of dynamism in 2025, driven by Vietnam’s aggressive expansion and rising quality benchmarks. With the world’s preference for spices on the rise, Vietnam has cemented itself as the largest cinnamon exporter through robust investments in cultivation, re-processing, and international partnerships. The country exported an impressive 83,045 tons valued at USD 210.4 million in the first eight months of 2025—a volume growth of nearly 19% and a value jump of 32% year-on-year. This performance is even more significant considering intensifying competition from Indonesia and China, stricter import rules, and a strong push from India, the largest importer of Vietnamese cinnamon.
Despite ranking third in global output, Vietnam leads in export value, underpinned by vast plantation growth and advanced processing. While stricter global quality standards pose challenges, Vietnamese exporters are responding with innovation—organic certification, direct farmer engagement, and sustainable agriculture. Import trends show continued re-processing demand, mostly sourcing cinnamon from Indonesia to supplement increasing local output. With spicy demand hotspots in South Asia, North America, and the Middle East, and tightening supply out of major origins, the global cinnamon trade is poised for further growth, keeping prices steady-to-firm and Vietnam firmly in the spotlight.
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Ceylon cinnamon
sticks
FOB 7.65 €/kg
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Ceylon cinnamon
powder
FOB 7.10 €/kg
(from IN)
Cinnamon
cassias sticks
FOB 7.20 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Organic | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceylon cinnamon | Sticks | IN | New Delhi | Yes | €7.65 | 0% | Stable |
| Ceylon cinnamon | Powder | IN | New Delhi | Yes | €7.10 | 0% | Stable |
| Cassia cinnamon | Sticks | IN | New Delhi | Yes | €7.20 | 0% | Stable |
| Cassia cinnamon | Split | VN | Hanoi | No | €2.62 | 0% | Stable |
| Cassia cinnamon | Powder | IN | New Delhi | Yes | €4.85 | 0% | Stable |
| Cassia cinnamon | Cigarette | VN | Hanoi | No | €4.97 | 0% | Stable |
| Cassia cinnamon | Broken | VN | Hanoi | No | €2.05 | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam’s Dominance: Leading the world in export value despite being third in output.
- Expanding Exports: Shipments up 32% in value and 19% in volume year-on-year (Jan–Aug 2025).
- Key Buyers: India (top), followed by USA, EU, Bangladesh, and China.
- Import/Export Mix: 3,102 tons imported Jan–Aug (mainly from Indonesia), down slightly as domestic output rises.
- Broadening Cultivation: Area under cinnamon has increased over tenfold since 2000 to 186,000 ha in 2023; 80%+ production from Yen Bai & Lao Cai provinces.
- Surging Demand: Especially in India, Middle East, US—fueled by health, food service, and flavor industries.
📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers
- Output Trends: Global supplies steady; Vietnam output climbing, Indonesia and China balancing as demand grows.
- Quality Standards: Heightened food safety, traceability, and organic certification requirements—particularly from Europe and the US.
- Prices: Stable, reflecting adequate supply but sustained global demand; no major rallies as re-processing covers market.
- Speculation: Little speculative froth, as price volatility has been low and inventory levels stable.
🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook
- Recent Weather: Vietnam’s major producing provinces have reported favorable rainfall and temperatures through the main season. No significant droughts or floods have impacted 2025 output to date.
- Yield Impact: Expect above-trend yields in northern Vietnam, which underpins export availability. If monsoon patterns continue moderate, 2025/26 supply will remain ample.
- Indonesia: Mixed rain distribution could modestly slow future Indonesian exports.
- India: Monsoon normal, supporting minimal disruption to South Asian spot demand.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023 Output (Est., tons) | 2025 YTD Exports (tons) | Stocks/Inventories (trend) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | ~170,000 | 83,045 (Jan–Aug) | Steady |
| Indonesia | ~210,000 | – | Steady/slight decline |
| China | ~77,000 | – | Steady |
| Sri Lanka (Ceylon) | ~23,000 | – | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🌿 Buyers: Secure contracts for Q4 2025, particularly for organic/Vietnamese varieties. Consider spot purchases for Indian origins amid steady pricing.
- 🌱 Sellers: Maintain focus on quality certification and traceability. Prioritize direct trade with major importing regions (India, North America, EU).
- 🚢 Exporters: Use dip in Indonesian supply as leverage for new contracts. Ensure compliance with tightening quality standards, especially for EU/US markets.
- 📉 Speculators: Price volatility is low; long-term positions in organic/traceable cinnamon may offer upside if regulations tighten further.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Price Range (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | Ceylon cinnamon sticks | €7.65 | €7.60–7.70 | Stable |
| New Delhi | Ceylon cinnamon powder | €7.10 | €7.05–7.15 | Stable |
| New Delhi | Cassia sticks | €7.20 | €7.15–7.25 | Stable |
| Hanoi | Cassia split | €2.62 | €2.60–2.65 | Stable |
| Hanoi | Cassia cigarette | €4.97 | €4.95–5.00 | Stable |
| Hanoi | Cassia broken | €2.05 | €2.05–2.08 | Stable |
