The global cashew market is experiencing a notable shift, with Vietnam once again solidifying its role as the world’s dominant exporter. In the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam posted an export value surge of 18.3%, reaching USD 2.8 billion despite a minor decrease in volume. This impressive growth is fueled by a sharp rally in cashew prices—up 21.5% year-on-year—helping to offset the slight drop in shipped tonnage. The country’s robust performance is particularly significant as it comes amid diverging trends across key destination markets and heightened focus on sustainability in supply chains. Strong demand from China and stable markets within Europe have bolstered performance, while the US saw lower volumes and values, highlighting shifting consumption patterns and possibly higher substitution or inventory build in North America.
Sustaining this momentum, experts emphasize, will require continuing investments in quality assurance, technological upgrades, and climate resilience, as erratic weather remains an ongoing challenge to both supply and price stability. As the industry gears up for a seasonal demand boost during year-end festivities and Tet, eyes are on whether Vietnam can meet its ambitious 2025 export target of USD 4.5 billion. This environment presents nuanced opportunities and risks for traders, processors, and end-users alike, making timely market intelligence and agile strategies more crucial than ever.
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Cashew kernels
WW240
FOB 7.75 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WS
FOB 5.75 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
SP
FOB 4.30 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Product | Grade/Type | Organic | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Cashew kernels | WW240 | No | Hanoi | FOB | 7.75 | 7.7 | 2025-08-23 | Firm |
| Vietnam | Cashew kernels | WW320 | No | Hanoi | FOB | 6.85 | 6.8 | 2025-08-23 | Bullish |
| Vietnam | Cashew kernels | WS | No | Hanoi | FOB | 5.75 | 5.7 | 2025-08-23 | Stable |
| Vietnam | Cashew kernels | SP | No | Hanoi | FOB | 4.3 | 4.25 | 2025-08-23 | Stable |
| India | Cashew kernels | W320 | No | New Delhi | FOB | 6.92 | 6.92 | 2025-08-23 | Neutral |
| NL | Cashew kernels | WW320 | Yes | Dordrecht | FCA | 6.34 | 6.34 | 2025-08-21 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam remains global leader, controlling 80%+ of world cashew export share for 18 consecutive years.
- Export performance: Jan-Jul 2025 output: 412,710 tons (-2.6% YOY); Value: USD 2.8bn (+18.3%). Average export price: USD 6,805/ton (+21.5%).
- Top buyers: China (96,230 tons, +28.8%) and the Netherlands (stable), while US demand falls (83,020 tons, -27.5%). Growth in Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Japan, Singapore, Pakistan. Declines in UK, Australia, Canada, Russia, Spain, Thailand.
- Domestic raw supply tightness and strong year-end demand (holidays, Tet) likely to uphold high prices.
- 2025 export target: USD 4.5bn (+4% YOY), requiring USD 1.7bn in next 5 months – seen as achievable.
📊 Fundamentals
- Vietnam’s competitiveness: Premium quality, robust processing, stable global demand.
- Risks: Climate change affecting raw nut supply, need for further investment in food safety, modern tech, and supply chain sustainability.
- Speculative positioning: Bullish, supported by higher forward bids and seasonally strong demand outlook.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Vietnam: Wetter-than-usual monsoon spells interrupted by hot, dry days. Short-term weather is mostly normal, but lingering concerns persist on longer-term rainfall distribution.
- India: Normal-to-above normal rains in southern cashew belts boosting flowering. Crop prospects slightly improved since June but not enough to offset Vietnam’s dominance.
- West Africa: Scattered rainfall with some regional dryness; overall, a neutral-to-slightly supportive picture for raw nut supplies.
- Outlook: Supply-side weather risk is moderate but could flare up if late monsoon delays or El Niño patterns return in Q4.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Overview
| Country | 2024 Output (tons) | 2025 YTD Output (tons) | Share (%) | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 723,808 | 412,710 | 80+ | Below average, strong forward buying |
| India | ~180,000 | N/A | 8–10 | Tight, limited exportable surplus |
| Nigeria | ~240,000 | N/A | Second largest grower | Steady, mostly for Asian processors |
| Ivory Coast | ~210,000 | N/A | Major African source | Normal |
| Cambodia | ~65,000 | N/A | Rising role | Stable |
📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Prices likely to remain elevated through Q4 on robust demand and ERP (export realization price) momentum.
- Processors should lock in supply for Q4 and Q1 2026 needs, hedging against further upside.
- Traders: Favor long positions in Vietnam WW320/WW240 grades, with attention to seasonal spikes pre-Tet and Western holidays.
- End-users: Secure coverage early as markets could tighten further if weather disrupts late harvests in Viet/India.
- Keep vigilant for policy changes in importing countries (US, EU food safety).
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Grade/Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Outlook | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| WW240 Vietnam (FOB) | 7.75 | 7.75 – 7.85 | Firm to Higher |
| WW320 Vietnam (FOB) | 6.85 | 6.85 – 7.00 | Slightly Higher |
| WS Vietnam (FOB) | 5.75 | 5.75 – 5.90 | Stable |
| SP Vietnam (FOB) | 4.3 | 4.3 – 4.4 | Stable |
