Vietnam Coconut Market Surges: Export Growth, Supply Shifts, and Price Outlook

The coconut market is experiencing a dynamic transformation in 2025, led by the robust performance of Vietnam—the world’s fifth-largest exporter and a rapidly emerging source of high-value coconut products. Driven by a 40.1% year-on-year increase in export value (reaching $216.3 million for H1 2025), Vietnam’s coconut industry is reaping the rewards of strong global demand, strategic investment in organic output, and escalating disruptions among other major producing countries.

With Ben Tre province at the core of this resurgence and a third of Vietnam’s coconut cultivation now certified organic, the country is determined to ride this growth wave by expanding capacity, advancing traceability, and building a global coconut brand identity. Prices remain stable to firm, while deep processing boosts competitiveness and rural livelihoods. As the global supply landscape shifts and with advanced digital mapping initiatives underway, all eyes are on how Vietnam and its regional peers will shape the coconut trade for the rest of the year.

📈 Latest Market Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	W-o-W Change	Market Sentiment
Coconut Dried	Flakes	Vietnam	Hanoi, VN	FOB	4.60	0%	Firm
Coconut Dried	Flakes (Organic)	Philippines	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	3.04	0%	Balanced
Coconut Dried	Flakes	Philippines	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.66	0%	Slightly Active
Coconut Dried	Desiccated, Medium Grade	Indonesia	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.91	0%	Steady
Coconut Dried	Desiccated	Indonesia	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.94	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Vietnam: 200,000 hectares harvested, yielding 2 million tons/year; 33% area certified organic (US/EU).
• Growth Drivers: 40.1% YoY surge in exports (H1 2025), strong demand from food, beverage, and cosmetics industries. Supply chain disruptions in Indonesia and the Philippines tighten regional availability.
• Export Position: #5 globally, powered by 600 processing enterprises. Major destinations: USA, EU, China.
• Product Strategy: Move toward value-added, processed products to increase margins and attract FDI.
• Geographical Indication: Ben Tre’s GI status and 8,300 ha of certified zones provide quality and traceability.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Strategic Trends

• Inventories: Global coconut stocks are tightening, driven by drought in Indonesia (El Niño impact) and disease issues in the Philippines.
• Vietnam Investments: Digital mapping and traceability infrastructure are underway; national coconut brand launch expected within 12 months.
• Global Competition: Southeast Asia and India compete for contract supply, but Vietnam’s organic, value-added focus offers premium positioning.
• US/EU Demand: Health trends and plant-based product adoption sustain demand for organic, certified coconut derivatives.

☁️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Mekong Delta (Ben Tre, Vietnam): Rainfall averages improved since June 2025 after an El Niño-affected dry season. Moisture now favorable; slight concerns over flooding in low-lying areas. Overall, 2025 crop output on track to exceed 2024.
• Philippines & Indonesia: Intermittent rains improve yield prospects after extended droughts, but tree recovery is gradual—ongoing risk of lower output this harvest.
• India & Sri Lanka: Monsoon patterns normalizing after recent deficits—gradual output improvement expected late 2025.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks (2025, est.)

Country	2025 Output (mil tons)	Share (%)	2024 vs 2025
Indonesia	17.5	35%	-2.5%
Philippines	15.2	30%	-1.8%
India	15.1	30%	+0.2%
Vietnam	2.0	4%	+5.3%
Sri Lanka	2.1	4%	+0.5%

Note: Vietnam’s growth outpaces regional peers due to innovation and brand strategy.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔹 Producers: Consider expanding certified organic acreage to capture premium export prices as buyers focus on traceability.
• 🔹 Exporters: Leverage Ben Tre’s GI certification in negotiations; prioritize value-added and deeply processed products for higher margins.
• 🔹 Buyers: Secure contracts early for Q4 2025 delivery—tightening supply and strong demand forecast to continue into next year.
• 🔹 Traders/Investors: Watch for weather shifts in Indonesia and the Philippines; sudden improvements or setbacks could swing market sentiment significantly.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Hanoi, VN (EUR/kg)	Dordrecht, NL (EUR/kg, Non-Organic)	Dordrecht, NL (EUR/kg, Organic)	Market Bias
2025-07-19	4.60	2.66	3.04	Firm to Up
2025-07-20	4.60-4.65	2.67	3.05	Stable
2025-07-21	4.65	2.68	3.06	Slightly Bullish

Price support expected; no major weather shocks anticipated short-term. Market remains alert to regional supply news.