The global coffee market is entering a period of remarkable turbulence and opportunity, with Vietnam at the epicenter. Driven by robust demand from both traditional buyers in Europe and a surging coffee culture in Russia, Vietnam’s coffee sector is experiencing record-high export revenues, rising global prices, and intensifying competition for available supplies. June 2025 saw a notable contraction in exported volumes, down more than 20% from May, even as value per ton continues its spectacular upward climb. European markets, especially Germany, Italy, and Spain, are ramping up their imports—often paying double-digit percentage premiums over last year. In Russia, shifting consumer preferences are amplifying demand for high-quality coffee while fueling price escalations.
Overall, despite a drop in the total volume for June, strong global demand and limited inventories have pushed Vietnam’s coffee export revenue projections for 2025 to unprecedented heights, likely shattering previous records and reaffirming the country’s pivotal role in the coffee trade.
📈 Prices: Latest Market Snapshot
| Exchange | Product | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE (London) | Robusta (Sep 2025) | EUR 4,455/t | +4.7% | Bullish |
| ICE (New York) | Arabica (Sep 2025) | EUR 3,569/t | +3.4% | Bullish |
| Vietnam Export | Robusta | EUR 5,500–5,800/t | +8% YoY | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Vietnam’s coffee exports declined 20.7% in volume from May to June but year-to-date value climbed 66.2% YoY.
- Europe, led by Germany (up 115% in export value), remains the leading consumer; Italy and Spain follow with strong price gains despite volume shifts.
- Russia’s demand is rising, with average prices to Russia up 47% amid a 39% increase in import value.
- Global Robusta inventories hover near historic lows, exacerbated by weather disruptions and aging tree stocks in Vietnam and Brazil.
- Vietnam’s 0% export tax policy enhances competitiveness and buffers against global price shocks.
- Speculative net long positions on ICE exchanges indicate ongoing bullish sentiment.
📊 Fundamentals
- Revenue per ton for Vietnamese coffee exports continues to rise, reflecting global supply tightness and strong demand.
- Steady Russian coffee consumption growth (now 8.76 billion liters annually), led by younger demographics embracing Western coffee styles.
- Vietnam exported 947,000 tons in Jan–June 2025 (+4.5% volume YoY) worth $5.4 billion (+66.2% value YoY).
- European buyers are paying substantial premiums to secure supplies, with average export prices reaching over $5,800/t for Spain and $5,617/t for Russia.
- US, China, South Korea, and Japan are recovering as key outlets, adding to market tightness.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Impact on Crop Yields
- Vietnam (Central Highlands, Dak Lak): Dry patches persist after early 2025 drought, limiting groundwater for irrigation. Rainfall slightly above average in July, but not enough to offset previous deficits. Below-average production forecast for 2025/2026.
- Brazil (Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais): Recovery in Robusta output tempered by continued weather volatility. Persistent dryness and late flowering suggest a moderate rebound at best.
- Indonesia: Heavy rainfall in main Robusta regions threatens bean quality and further inflames global supply constraints.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025 Output (est.) | 2024 Output | Ending Stocks (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 1.62M t | 1.78M t | Minimal |
| Brazil | 1.15M t (Robusta) | 1.25M t | Low |
| Indonesia | 650,000 t | 700,000 t | Moderate |
| EU | Import | Import | Decreasing |
| Russia | Import | Import | Steady |
📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Trading sentiment remains robustly bullish as falling production, reduced inventories, and unrelenting demand dominate fundamentals.
- Global logistics concerns and weather risks may trigger additional price rallies, especially if South American weather fails to improve.
- Traders: Favor long positions in Robusta and Arabica futures; consider increased volatility and set stop-losses accordingly.
- Exporters in Vietnam: Lock in forward sales to capitalize on historic price levels while remaining flexible for potential upside.
- Buyers in Europe & Russia: Accelerate securing contracts to hedge against further supply tightness and price escalations.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | Product | Forecast Range (EUR/t) | Market Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE (London) | Robusta | 4,450–4,520 | Bullish |
| ICE (New York) | Arabica | 3,540–3,600 | Bullish |
| Vietnam Export | Robusta | 5,600–5,900 | Bullish |