The global cashew market is navigating a pivotal year marked by steadily rising international demand, higher average export prices, and shifting trade flows centered around Vietnam—the world’s largest exporter. As 2025 progresses, Vietnamese processors are poised to set a new export revenue record of USD 4.5 billion, undeterred by a modest domestic crop decline in early 2025. Dynamic import patterns, with Cambodia, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria delivering the bulk of raw supply, are helping to offset local shortfalls. Crucially, competitive pricing and modern processing have enabled Vietnam to maintain its dominance and weather market fluctuations, while tariff-free imports from ASEAN partners give its processors an edge.
Despite a recent dip in monthly import volumes and values, cashew prices have remained firm or appreciated, reflecting resilient demand, particularly from North America and Europe. With tight global inventories, rising import costs, and persistent weather uncertainties across key origins, the market outlook is cautiously bullish as buyers and sellers adapt rapidly to evolving fundamentals.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cashew kernels
WW320
FOB 6.80 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WW240
FOB 7.70 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WS
FOB 5.70 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices
| Product/Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashew WW320 | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 6.80 | 6.80 | 2025-09-27 | Stable |
| Cashew WW240 | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 7.70 | 7.70 | 2025-09-27 | Stable |
| Cashew WS | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.70 | 5.70 | 2025-09-27 | Stable |
| Cashew WW320 (Organic) | India | New Delhi | FOB | 8.59 | 8.55 | 2025-09-27 | Upward |
| Cashew WW320 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 6.88 | 6.84 | 2025-09-27 | Upward |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam’s 2025 exports projected at USD 4.5 billion (+2.7% YoY), offsetting early domestic crop declines with higher prices and robust processing.
- Imports (Jan-Aug 2025): 2.1 million tonnes (+8.6% YoY), value rising sharply (+36.6% YoY) – reflecting higher global prices.
- Cambodia is top supplier (936,000 tonnes, USD 1.4 billion; +17% volume, +38% value), benefiting from 0% ASEAN tariff.
- Ivory Coast delivered 403,000 tonnes (USD 615 million; +2% volume, +34% value), showing rising import costs (avg. price up 31% YoY).
- Nigeria supplied 240,000 tonnes (USD 351 million; +13% volume, +44% value); average price +27%.
- Demand trends remain strong, especially from developed markets amid lifestyle/health food trends.
📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers
- Higher average import prices: Cambodia (EUR 1,519/tonne), Ivory Coast (EUR 1,529/tonne), Nigeria (EUR 1,457/tonne).
- August import volume down 8.7% MoM, value -9.7% (seasonal correction).
- Zero-tariff regime for ASEAN imports supports Vietnam’s processing/export engine.
- Global inventory levels tight; end users show little resistance to price rises so far.
- Speculative positioning modest—buyers covering forward, sellers holding for higher pricing.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Vietnam: Post-harvest, but late 2025 rainfall forecast slightly above average in Central Highlands—may favor 2026 flowering/budding but not impact current stocks.
- Cambodia: Key provinces (Kampong Thom, Kratie, Ratanakiri) expecting normal-to-wet conditions for late monsoon; beneficial for next crop cycle.
- Ivory Coast, Nigeria: Near-term weather benign; focus shifts to 2026 crop as West African rainy periods finish.
- Yield Impact: Weather not expected to disrupt current stocks but may support good 2026 crop start.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2025 Output Estimate (kt) | Stock/Processing Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 420 | Strong processing; import-reliant |
| Cambodia | 700 | Fragmented processing; mainly exports raw |
| Ivory Coast | 1,000 | Largest African origin; export focused |
| Nigeria | 300 | Processing nascent |
| India | 690 | Major kernel exporter; import supplement |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish bias for premium grades (WW320, WW240): tight inventories, robust demand, and high import costs.
- Some downside risk if demand softens in late Q4, but currently strong retailer and industry buying interest.
- Buyers: Secure forward contracts to hedge against further price escalation, especially for higher grades and certified organic lots.
- Sellers: Hold for premium offers; cautious sales recommended given positive sentiment.
- Watch currency volatility (EUR/USD, VND/USD); could impact FOB offers from Vietnam/India.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Expected 3-Day Range | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | WW320 | 6.80 | 6.80 – 6.90 | Stable/Up |
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | WW240 | 7.70 | 7.70 – 7.80 | Stable/Up |
| India (New Delhi) | WW320 Organic | 8.59 | 8.55 – 8.70 | Up |
