The global cashew market is experiencing a dramatic turn, with Vietnam steadily cementing its dominance as the world’s top exporter. Despite facing a minor 2.6% year-on-year decline in export volumes during the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam’s cashew industry has posted an 18.3% leap in export value—driven by surging prices and tailored market strategies. The average export price soared to USD 6,805 per ton, up an impressive 21.5% from 2024, marking the highest levels seen in recent years. This resilience is notable given global headwinds such as inflation, shifting demand patterns, logistical disruptions, and stricter food safety requirements.
Key markets reveal a shifting mosaic: China has dramatically increased its purchases (+28.8% in volume, +47% in value), overtaking other traditional buyers, while exports to the U.S. have receded significantly. Smaller yet growing markets—including Germany, the UAE, and Japan—underscore how Vietnam’s exporters are diversifying risk and capitalizing on new opportunities. Still, sustained growth depends on continued investment in deep processing, supply chain traceability, and strict food safety compliance. As the global cashew market tightens, Vietnam’s consistency and adaptability position it well to achieve its ambitious USD 4.5 billion export target for 2025. For participants in the cashew value chain, understanding these shifting dynamics and global weather risks is critical for navigating price volatility and supply constraints in the months ahead.
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Cashew kernels
WW240
FOB 7.75 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WS
FOB 5.75 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
SP
FOB 4.30 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices & Market Overview
| Type | Origin | Delivery City | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WW240 | Vietnam | Hanoi | 7.75 | 0.00 | Firm |
| WW320 | Vietnam | Hanoi | 6.85 | 0.00 | Firm |
| WS | Vietnam | Hanoi | 5.75 | 0.00 | Stable |
| SP | Vietnam | Hanoi | 4.30 | 0.00 | Stable |
| LWP | Vietnam | Hanoi | 5.25 | 0.00 | Stable |
| W320 | India | New Delhi | 6.89 | -0.03 | Slightly Weak |
| W320 (Organic) | India | New Delhi | 8.59 | -0.03 | Slightly Weak |
| WW320 | Netherlands | Dordrecht | 5.25 | 0.00 | Stable |
Key Insights:
- Vietnamese FOB prices steady at multi-year highs with continued tightness in physical availability.
- Indian offers have softened marginally week-on-week amid muted export activity.
- WW240 and WW320 grades command a strong premium, reflecting robust demand, especially from China and Europe.
🌍 Supply & Demand Landscape
- Vietnam controls roughly 80% of global trade and aims for USD 4.5bn in exports for 2025.
- China increased import volume by 28.8%, signaling pent-up demand and strong retail restocking post-pandemic.
- U.S. demand decreased (–27.5% by volume) as recyclers manage high inventory and shifts in consumer snacking trends.
- Other growing markets: Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Japan, Singapore, and Pakistan.
- Challenging markets: Declines recorded for the UK, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Thailand due to inflation and consumer pullback.
📊 Fundamentals & Major Market Drivers
- Export Prices: Up 21.5% year-on-year, signaling a significant value-driven rally.
- Tight Farmgate Supply: Rising procurement costs in Vietnam and West Africa due to adverse weather and robust local consumption.
- Trade Flows: Increased intra-Asian shipments, especially to China, offset slower Western demand.
- Quality Concerns: Heightened scrutiny on food safety and quality may alter trade flows.
- Currency Factors: Stable VND versus USD has helped Vietnamese competitiveness.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Risks
- Vietnam: The recent transition into the dry season has produced favorable harvest conditions, supporting nut quality and farm returns.
- West Africa: Mild drought in Ivory Coast and Nigeria observed, with short-term improvement from September rains. Continued vigilance on rainfall is advised for the October harvest flush.
- India: Monsoon is nearing completion, with mixed rainfall distribution potentially reducing output in southern states.
Weather-Driven Risks: Further heatwaves or untimely rain could limit yields in Africa and India, supporting high prices into Q4 2025.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Output (Est., 1,000t) | 2025 YTD Export (1,000t) | Stock/Supply Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 510 | 412.7 | Tight |
| India | 180 | ~115 | Moderate |
| Nigeria | 240 | NA | Variable |
| Ivory Coast | 330 | NA | Variable |
- Vietnam: Exports remain robust but inventories are tight, limiting downside pressure on prices.
- India: Facing higher local prices due to weather risks and currency fluctuations.
- Africa: Harvest outlook uncertain, with quality likely below average due to erratic rainfall.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure forward contracts for premium grades (WW240, WW320) to hedge against further price increases.
- Sellers: Hold positions for high-quality kernels; market remains well supported by Chinese and EU demand.
- Industrial Users: Consider inventory buildup, especially for food manufacturing heading into the holiday season.
- Watch for: Weather developments in West Africa in September-October and consumer demand trends in the U.S. and EU.
- Risk: Non-compliance with food safety standards could jeopardize access to key markets and pressure prices lower.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, EUR/kg)
| Type/Origin | 30 Aug | 31 Aug | 1 Sep |
|---|---|---|---|
| WW240 (VN) | 7.75 | 7.80 | 7.82 |
| WW320 (VN) | 6.85 | 6.87 | 6.89 |
| W320 (IN) | 6.89 | 6.89 | 6.90 |
- Short-term price bias: Firm with mild upside risk due to weather and tight physical supplies.
Outlook Summary: The cashew market is likely to remain in a high-priced, supply-constrained phase through early September, with Vietnam’s supply leadership dominating trade sentiment. Monitor global weather, food safety, and shifting major buyer dynamics closely.
