The global pepper market is currently experiencing robust momentum, backed by record-high prices and evolving trade dynamics. Vietnam, the world’s top pepper exporter, has completed its 2025 harvest with an impressive 274,100 tons—an increase of nearly 12,000 tons over last year—on a slightly expanded cultivation area of 110,600 hectares. This bumper crop coincides with historically high prices: black pepper is quoted around 6,240–6,370 USD/ton for export, while in-country spot prices have surged to 139,000–144,000 VND/kg, reflecting a tight supply and strong downstream demand.
Despite a 12.4% drop in export volume in the first half of 2025, export value soared 35.7% year-on-year as average prices rose more than 54% to 6,881 USD/ton. Export destinations are diversifying, but competition—particularly with Brazil and Indonesia—is intensifying due to new US tariffs. Strategic shipment acceleration and market expansion are becoming crucial for Vietnamese exporters looking to hit the ambitious 1.35 billion USD annual target. Sustainability and traceability are also taking center stage, reflecting global buyers’ growing preferences for natural and organic spices. With shifting weather patterns, evolving trade policies, and rising global demand, the pepper market is at a pivotal point, and market participants must navigate both opportunity and volatility in the quarters ahead.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Pepper
black 600 g/l, clean
FOB 6.38 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, faq
FOB 6.00 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, clean
FOB 6.08 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices
| Type | Grade | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/ton) | Previous Price (EUR/ton) | Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper | Black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.38 | 6.38 | 2025-07-04 | Stable/Strong |
| Pepper | Black 550 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.00 | 6.00 | 2025-07-04 | Stable/Strong |
| Pepper | Black 550 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.08 | 6.08 | 2025-07-04 | Stable |
| Pepper | Black 500 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 5.80 | 5.80 | 2025-07-04 | Stable |
| Pepper | Black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.10 | 6.10 | 2025-07-04 | Stable |
| Pepper | Black 500 g/l, clean | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.67 | 5.60 | 2025-07-04 | Firming |
| Pepper | Black, 5 mm, extra bold | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.50 | 6.50 | 2025-07-04 | Strong |
Spot Domestic Prices
- Vietnam: 139,000–144,000 VND/kg (high and stable)
Export Prices, Reference (USD/ton)
- Black Pepper 500 g/l: 6,240
- Black Pepper 550 g/l: 6,370
- White Pepper: 8,950
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam Harvest 2025: 110,600 ha planted, 274,100 t output (up 1,000 ha/11,800 t YoY).
- Exports (Jan–June 2025): 124,900 t (-12.4%), 859.6 M USD (+35.7%), avg. 6,881 USD/t (+54.8%).
- Top Destinations: USA (26.8%), Germany (9.2%), India (7.7%)—significant YoY value gains.
- Export value to UK up 2.1x; sharpest drop: Netherlands (-12.5%).
- Growing pressure from Brazil and Indonesia, especially due to new US tariffs.
📊 Fundamentals
- Vietnam maintains a leading role, shipping to 125 countries/territories.
- Inventories: Global stocks are tightening, with higher domestic prices curbing farmer selling.
- Speculation: Funds and traders remain bullish on pepper, reflecting robust consumer and industrial demand.
- Value Chain: Rising focus on traceability, sustainability, and organic compliance.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Recent monsoon activity in Vietnam’s Central Highlands has generally supported crop development and harvest quality.
- Short-term forecast (next 10 days): Above-average rainfall across major pepper regions (Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Dak Nong), boosting moisture reserves but with some risk of localized flooding.
- Temperature outlook: Stable, with occasional heat spikes; no severe stress expected for established crops.
- Field reports: Favorable weather post-harvest; expected to support robust quality and preserve yields in main stockpiles.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025 Output (est. kt) | Global Share (%) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 274 | ~36% | Depleting (high exports, strong local demand) |
| Brazil | 100 | ~13% | Rising (but facing export logistics issues) |
| Indonesia | 85 | ~12% | Stable |
| India | 63 | ~8% | Low (domestic use strong) |
| Sri Lanka | 20 | ~3% | Stable |
📌 Key Market Drivers
- Global demand for natural, traceable, and organic spices remains strong.
- Supply-side tightness, with Vietnam’s increased output balancing lower ending stocks.
- Trade policy shifts, especially new US tariffs; higher competition from Brazil, Indonesia on the US market.
- Shifting logistics costs and freight rates.
- Farmer retention amid expectations for further price increases slows market flow.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers should accelerate procurement amid tight supply and uncertain future policy developments.
- Producers/exporters are advised to expedite shipments—avoid overreliance on carryover contracts.
- Monitor US, EU policy; new tariffs may alter flows and premiums.
- Diversify markets: tap into Asia, Middle East, broader Europe to reduce US dependency.
- Sustainability, quality certification, and traceability will be vital for maintaining price premiums.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Location | Product | Latest Price (EUR/ton) | Forecasted Range (EUR/ton) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 600 g/l, clean | 6.38 | 6.35–6.42 | Firm/Up |
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 550 g/l, faq | 6.00 | 5.95–6.05 | Steady/Firm |
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 500 g/l, clean | 6.10 | 6.08–6.13 | Firm |
| New Delhi (IN) | Black 500 g/l, clean | 5.67 | 5.65–5.73 | Firm/Up |