Vietnam Rises as Global Rice Export Powerhouse Amid Market Volatility

The global rice market is undergoing a pivotal transformation in 2025. Vietnam has surpassed Thailand to become the world’s second-largest rice exporter, just after India—a shift driven by surging demand from Asia and Africa, and a sharp realignment of trade due to India’s return to the export arena. From January to July, Vietnam shipped 5.5 million tons of rice, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, even as export revenue slipped by nearly 16% amid depressed global prices. Still, Vietnam’s unique ability to capture market share on both the value and volume fronts—especially in Africa—highlights the country’s growing importance. Meanwhile, India’s re-entry following the end of its export ban has intensified competition and further pressured prices, making strategy, quality, and diversification key to Vietnam’s future position. Despite these headwinds, niche segments like Vietnam’s ST25 premium rice remain resilient, with European buyers supporting high prices.

The end of India’s export ban and evolving weather patterns across Asia add crucial uncertainty for the coming months. With the USDA projecting Vietnam’s exports to reach 7.9 million tons in 2025 and Thailand set for a record low, the spotlight is on how producers react to shifting market signals and climate risks. As we look ahead, closely monitoring weather in the Mekong Delta, speculative trends, and top buyer activity will be critical for market participants navigating near-term volatility and long-term structural change.

📈 Prices: Market Snapshot & Exchange Overview

Variety & Origin	Location	Price (EUR/ton FOB)	Previous Price	Update Date	Sentiment
Rice, all golden, sella (IN)	New Delhi	1.05	1.05	2025-08-30	Neutral
Rice, all steam, pr11 (IN)	New Delhi	0.56	0.56	2025-08-30	Neutral
Rice, al ısteam, sharbati (IN)	New Delhi	0.71	0.71	2025-08-30	Neutral
Rice, white, non basmati (IN, organic)	New Delhi	1.61	1.61	2025-08-30	Neutral
Rice, white, basmati (IN, organic)	New Delhi	1.91	1.91	2025-08-30	Neutral
Rice, long, white, 5% (VN)	Hanoi	0.60	0.60	2025-08-30	Soft
Rice, Jasmine (VN)	Hanoi	0.62	0.62	2025-08-30	Neutral
Rice, ST25 (VN, EU market)	EU	~1.20	~1.20	2025-07	Strong (premium)

🌍 Supply & Demand: Exporters, Destinations, and Trade Shifts

• Vietnam: 5.5 million tons shipped Jan–Jul 2025 (+3.1% YoY), but export value -15.9% due to lower prices.
• Main buyers: Philippines (2.4 Mt), Ghana (586 Kt), Ivory Coast (648 Kt — up 148% in volume).
• India: 11.68 million tons Jan–Jun after lifting export ban, now the market leader by volume.
• Thailand: 3.73 million tons Jan–Jun, now #3 in the world.
• USDA forecast: Vietnam may export 7.9 Mt and Thailand only 7 Mt in 2025; continued structural shift expected.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global prices down 18–24% YoY for key Vietnamese varieties, even as exports grow in volume.
• India’s export normalization keeps downward pressure on world prices.
• Premium Vietnamese rice (ST25) holding value in specialty markets (Europe >EUR 1,100 per ton).
• Competitive pricing and African demand offset price drop for Vietnamese growers/exporters.
• Supply chain focus: Vietnam urged to enhance quality, chemical standards, and diversify as market gains solidify.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Risks

• Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Favorable monsoon rains so far in 2025, but local flooding risk in lowlands and potential disease outbreaks remain for late season.
• India: Near-normal conditions in primary producing regions; late-monsoon patches could affect some areas, but most crops progressing steadily.
• Thailand: Slightly below average rainfall raises mild drought concerns, potentially capping output in dryland production areas.

📦 Global Production & Stock Comparisons

Country	2024/25 Export Forecast (Mt)	2023/24 Exports (Mt)	Stock Situation
India	~17.5	11.6 (Jan-Jun 2025)	High, normalizing after ban lift
Vietnam	7.9	8.1	Stable, ample domestic supply
Thailand	7.0	8.5	Down, possible multi-year low

💡 Trading Outlook: Key Insights & Recommendations

• Monitor Vietnamese ex-farm prices—further declines may spur government support or yield shifts to premium grades.
• For buyers: Favor securing Vietnamese long white and ST25 while supply volumes and price spreads remain favorable vs. India and Thailand.
• Expect tightness in Thai origins in late 2025 if weather/drought risks persist.
• Speculators: Volatility likely as weather and export figures update; prepare for both bullish and bearish triggers.
• Watch for new policy interventions or tariff changes post-Indian export stabilization.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region & Exchange	Current Price (EUR/ton FOB)	Forecast Range (3 days)	Bias
Vietnam, Hanoi (5% long white)	0.60	0.59 – 0.61	Soft/Neutral
India, New Delhi (all golden)	1.05	1.05 – 1.06	Stable
Vietnam, EU ST25 premium	~1.20	1.18 – 1.21	Strong (premium niche)