Vietnam Star Anise Market: Export Recovery Fades in July, Prices Hold Firm Amid Global Fluctuations

After a stellar start to 2025, Vietnam’s star anise export momentum slowed notably in July, weighing on market sentiment but leaving export prices relatively supported. July exports dropped sharply by 39.3% from June, with just 602 tons shipped and USD 2.5 million in value, according to the Vietnam Pepper Association. Despite this downturn, year-to-date volumes (Jan–Jun) still exceeded last year’s pace by 14.3%, even as values lagged due to international price softness and ongoing global spice market volatility.

India remains the essential anchor market, taking nearly half the July export share, while Pakistan and emerging buyers in South Korea, Japan, and the US gradually diversify demand. Vietnamese prices held steady to firmer in August trading, with FOB Hanoi offers for organic origin reaching up to EUR 7.27/kg, outpacing Indian and non-organic quotations. This resilience reflects both the sector’s improving quality, value-added potential, and the broader global trend toward natural and plant-derived ingredients. Yet, headwinds persist: the sector faces pressures from stricter traceability, shifting weather patterns, and the need for deeper processing and branding to lift export value in a competitive international environment.

📈 Prices and Market Snapshot

Product	Origin	Location	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Anise star	VN	Hanoi	Yes	FOB	7.27	7.22	2025-08-09	Firm/Bullish
Anise star	IN	New Delhi	Yes	FOB	6.32	6.27	2025-08-09	Steady
Anise star	VN	Hanoi	No	FOB	7.85	7.80	2025-08-09	Firm/Bullish
Anis seed	SY	Dordrecht (NL)	No	FCA	3.25	3.25	2025-08-08	Flat

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Vietnam Export Flow: July shipments slumped by 39.3% from June, but the Jan–Jun 2025 total (9,276 tons, USD 35.7 million) was up 14.3% YoY in volume, yet down 8.3% in value, as international prices softened.
• Key Destinations: India took 48.2% of July’s exports (290 tons), followed by Pakistan (56 tons). Growth in South Korea, Japan, and the US highlights diversification opportunities.
• Production: Annual Vietnamese output ranges 10,000–12,000 tons, with over 70% from Lang Son. Competitor China remains the only larger global supplier.
• Market Structure: Export prices range USD 4,000–6,000/ton, peaking above USD 7,000/ton in high-demand periods. Current EUR prices equate to the upper range of this band.

📊 Fundamentals & Recent Trends

• 2024 exports set a record, topping USD 60 million (+25% YoY), driven by demand in legacy and new global markets.
• Sector faces margin squeeze as prices soften despite volume increases. Price dips are attributed to competition, quality standards, and some demand rationing in Europe and Asia.
• Long-term growth depends on traceability, processing investments, and market branding to capture value and support rural economies.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Northern Vietnam (Lang Son, Cao Bang, Quang Ninh, Thai Nguyen): Current August weather is trending moderately wet with scattered showers and high humidity. Moderate temperatures and favorable rainfall benefit fruit setting and maturation, ensuring normal crop development.
• Risks: Prolonged rains could challenge harvest and drying, but no immediate threats to yield are foreseen. Weather-watch is recommended as typhoon season continues through August and September.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025 Production (Est. Tons)	Stocks (Est. Tons)	Role
Vietnam	10,000–12,000	Moderate	Major Exporter
China	~20,000	Abundant	Largest Supplier
India	N/A	Low	Top Importer
Pakistan	N/A	Low	Growing Importer

📌 Key Market Drivers

• India’s continued raw spice and extract demand provides a reliable export anchor for Vietnam.
• Global movement toward natural/organic ingredients boosts mid-to-long term outlook.
• Stronger competition from China, stricter EU traceability rules, and quality certification requirements will be decisive for profitability.
• Investment in deep-processing and branding is needed to move export positioning up the value chain.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term volatility persists; prices in Vietnam are firm as volume slows, but higher stock levels in China could cap upside.
• Exporters advised to lock in contracts for Q3–Q4 at current or higher price levels, particularly for organic-certified grades.
• Buyers should monitor September weather in northern Vietnam and China as a significant risk factor for the new harvest campaign.
• Long-term: Invest in quality, traceability, and processing to ensure competitiveness, especially in premium and organic market segments.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (EUR/kg, FOB)

Origin	Organic	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
VN Hanoi	Yes	7.27	7.27–7.35	7.30–7.38	7.32–7.40
VN Hanoi	No	7.85	7.85–7.90	7.88–7.95	7.90–7.98
IN New Delhi	Yes	6.32	6.30–6.38	6.32–6.40	6.34–6.42
SY Dordrecht	No	3.25	3.25	3.25	3.25

Vietnam prices expected to be steady to slightly firmer on lighter July shipments and firm forward commitments, while non-organic grades may see incremental gains as weather poses potential risk. Indian prices may trend upward if procurement for Diwali builds pace in September.