The global rice market remains highly dynamic as 2025 unfolds, particularly marked by Vietnam’s prominent position in Singapore despite recent shifts in pricing and supply dynamics. While Vietnam retained its ranking as the third-largest supplier to Singapore with exports worth over $47.7 million, the market witnessed a year-on-year decline of 17.1% in value—a direct result of lower average export prices, which have fallen by 18.4% to just $517.5 per tonne.
Surprisingly, within this challenging environment, white rice exports from Vietnam surged by 11.9% to $30.2 million, illustrating robust consumer demand and the country’s ability to maintain competitiveness. Milled fragrant and glutinous rice segments also exhibited strong market shares (57% and 61%, respectively), cementing Vietnam’s lead despite minor declines in export revenues. Overall, Singapore’s rice imports are up 10.8% year-on-year, intensifying competition among Vietnam, India, and Thailand. The proposed bilateral trade agreement between Singapore and Vietnam is poised to further boost Vietnamese rice’s market stability and competitiveness in the months ahead.
📈 Rice Market Prices at Key Exchanges
| Origin | Type | Location | Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | All Golden, Sella | New Delhi (FOB) | 1.06 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| IN | All Steam, PR11 | New Delhi (FOB) | 0.57 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| IN | Al ıSteam, Sharbati | New Delhi (FOB) | 0.72 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| VN | Long, White, 5% | Hanoi (FOB) | 0.61 | +0.01 | Slightly Bullish |
| VN | Jasmine | Hanoi (FOB) | 0.63 | +0.01 | Slightly Bullish |
| VN | Japonica | Hanoi (FOB) | 0.73 | +0.01 | Slightly Bullish |
| VN | White Glutinous | Hanoi (FOB) | 0.71 | +0.01 | Firm Demand |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Vietnam is the third-largest rice supplier to Singapore, accounting for 24.5% of imports but down 17.1% by value YoY due to export price pressure.
- White rice exports from Vietnam to Singapore rose 11.9% YoY, capturing 29.6% of that segment (second to India).
- Vietnam leads Singapore’s fragrant and glutinous rice imports, with market shares of 57% and 61%, even as values modestly decline.
- Singapore’s total rice imports increased 10.8% YoY to $195 million, signaling robust regional demand.
- India and Thailand continue to dominate Singapore’s rice market, but Vietnam remains structurally important in multiple rice varieties.
- A prospective Vietnam–Singapore rice trade agreement could further stabilize and expand Vietnam’s exports in the second half of 2025.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison
- Export prices from Vietnam have fallen sharply to $517.5/tonne (down 18.4% YoY), contrasting with India’s market share growth.
- India leads Singapore’s white rice market (46.7% share, $47.7 million), slightly expanding its gap over Vietnam.
- Global inventories remain sufficient, but tightness in select aromatic and specialty rice submarkets is supporting prices regionally.
- Milled fragrant rice and glutinous rice from Vietnam continue to command high shares (57% and 61%) despite value decreases.
- Export competition is intensifying as Thailand, India, and Japan also increase outbound shipments, causing price pressure for Vietnamese rice.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Southern Vietnam: Favorable monsoon rains are reported, boosting sowing and early growth conditions, though flood risks persist in key Mekong Delta areas.
- India: Seasonal rainfall has been near normal, supporting robust planting in major rice regions; however, localized flooding in the east may delay harvests and impact quality.
- Thailand: Drought conditions are easing, but soil moisture remains below average in some northern growing belts, which may slightly constrain yields if dry weather returns.
- Short-Term Impact: Adequate moisture in Southeast Asia is lowering supply risk, but vigilance is warranted for disease outbreaks in wet zones.
🗺️ Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (mmt) | 2024-25 Stocks (mmt) | Key Export Segments |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 126.0 | 34.1 | Basmati, White, Parboiled |
| Vietnam | 43.5 | 6.5 | White, Fragrant, Glutinous |
| Thailand | 30.0 | 6.2 | Jasmine, White |
| Pakistan | 9.7 | 1.9 | Basmati, IRRI-6 |
| China | 148.0 | 71.6 | All types (mostly domestic use) |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Vietnamese exporters should monitor evolving FOB prices and act to capture demand before competitors adjust their pricing downward.
- Buyers in Singapore and other Asian importers may find opportunities as Vietnamese prices show signs of bottoming out and product quality remains consistent.
- Aromatic and specialty rice categories (fragrant, glutinous) from Vietnam maintain leadership—watch these segments for price resilience.
- Continued strong regional demand supports stable prices, though aggressive Indian, Thai, and Japanese exports may pose downside risks if supply outpaces consumption.
- The upcoming Vietnam–Singapore trade agreement could offer Vietnamese rice added stability—market participants should position accordingly for Q3-Q4 2025.
- Stay alert to weather-driven disruptions, particularly in the critical Mekong and Ganges basins.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast: Key Exchanges
| Origin | Type | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast (€/kg) Day +1 | Forecast (€/kg) Day +2 | Forecast (€/kg) Day +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | All Golden, Sella | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| IN | All Steam, PR11 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| IN | Al ıSteam, Sharbati | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| VN | Long, White, 5% | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| VN | Jasmine | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| VN | Japonica | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.72 |