The global cashew market has entered a dynamic transition phase following a rollercoaster start to 2025. After a slow first quarter—marked by a 31.8% drop in Vietnam’s export volume and a 13.7% fall in export earnings—April saw a remarkable reversal, with Vietnamese cashew export earnings surging by 28.6% month-over-month to $494.06 million. This turnaround is driven by revitalized import demand from key markets such as the US, China, and the EU, as stock levels return to normal and purchasing confidence rebounds. Vietnam remains the world’s primary supplier of processed cashew, even as its domestic raw cashew production lags behind the growing needs of its processing industry. Heavy reliance on raw cashew imports from Cambodia, Indonesia, and African suppliers underpins both price stability and risk in Vietnam’s export-driven model. The strong second-quarter start, combined with positive buying signals for May and June, opens up new windows for market participants, though caution persists amidst unresolved stock and weather uncertainties. This report details current price trends, core market drivers, global flows, and the trading outlook for June 2025, providing actionable insights for buyers, exporters, and investors.
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Cashew kernels
WW320
FOB 6.80 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
W450
FOB 6.50 €/kg
(from IN)
Cashew kernels
W320
FOB 9.07 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Latest Cashew Prices
| Origin | Location | Type/Grade | Organic | Delivery | Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Hanoi | WW320 | No | FOB | 6.80 | 0 |
| Vietnam | Hanoi | WW240 | No | FOB | 7.70 | 0 |
| India | New Delhi | W320 | No | FOB | 7.14 | 0 |
| India | New Delhi | W320 | Yes | FOB | 9.07 | 0 |
| India | New Delhi | W450 | No | FOB | 6.50 | 0 |
| Netherlands | Dordrecht | WW320 | No | FCA | 5.35 | -0.03 |
| Netherlands | Dordrecht | WW320 | Yes | FCA | 6.44 | -0.03 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Exports Rebound: Vietnam’s April 2025 cashew export earnings rose 28.6% MoM, reaching $494.06 million. Jan–Apr export value is up 10% YoY to $1.33 billion despite a weak Q1.
- Key Markets: The US continues to dominate Vietnamese cashew imports (23.7% of April shipments), followed by China and the EU. Export value to the US rose 28.5% compared to last year.
- Cautious Buying Shifts: Early-year price softness and ample global stocks meant buyers delayed orders until April, when robust demand returned.
- Raw Cashew Import Reliance: Vietnam’s processing sector depends increasingly on imports from Cambodia, Indonesia, and Africa due to insufficient domestic raw cashew.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Inventories: Ample global stocks earlier this year reduced price pressure, but drawdown is ongoing as demand normalizes in major destinations.
- Speculative Positioning: Short-term sentiment has shifted bullish, with increased forward contracting by importers through May/June.
- Trade Flows: Jan-Feb 2025 exports from Vietnam totaled 62,400 tonnes. Shift in trade flows expected to accelerate with improved US/EU demand.
☁️ Weather & Yield Outlook
- Vietnam: The main crop season (Feb–May) witnessed mixed rainfall patterns, but no major weather disruptions are forecast for key processing provinces in June 2025. Mild weather is supporting ongoing harvests and quality.
- West Africa & Cambodia: Good harvest prospects in West Africa and Cambodia ensure stable supply of raw cashew to Vietnam, supporting current processing rates.
- Risks: Any late monsoon onset or drought in producing regions could impact raw supply for Q3, but current outlook is neutral-to-positive.
🌎 Production & Stocks Snapshot
| Country | 2025 Projected Production (kt) | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 410 | Largest processor/exporter; imports majority of raw nuts |
| India | 800 | Top producer; major local and export market |
| Ivory Coast | 950 | World’s largest raw cashew producer |
| Cambodia | 700 | Key raw cashew supplier to Vietnam |
| Indonesia | 400 | Rising raw nut supplier |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔹 Bullish near-term: Seasonal demand and calmer inventories support steady-to-firm pricing through June.
- 🔹 Vietnamese offers: Remain competitive for WW320 grade at $6.80/kg FOB. Consider forward cover as spot demand is strong.
- 🔹 India spreads: Premiums for organic grades in India remain sizeable, indicating robust niche demand.
- 🔹 Monitor weather: Watch for weather impact signals for July/August in West Africa and Southeast Asia.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Location | Grade | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (Next 3 Days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | WW320 | 6.80 | 6.75–6.85 | Stable/Firm |
| New Delhi (IN) | W320 | 7.14 | 7.10–7.20 | Stable |
| Dordrecht (NL) | WW320 | 5.35 | 5.30–5.40 | Neutral-to-Bearish (due to high EU stocks) |
