Vietnam’s Coconut Market Soars: Export Growth, Global Opportunities & Price Trends (June 2025)

Vietnam’s coconut industry is experiencing a remarkable upswing, solidifying its position as a global powerhouse in both fresh and processed coconut products. Over just 8–9 years, exports have grown tenfold, reaching over $1 billion in 2024. This rapid rise is underpinned by strategic market openings: the US officially welcomed Vietnamese coconuts in August 2023, triggering an elevenfold export surge, while the China-Vietnam export protocol established in August 2024 instantly propelled Vietnam to supplying 20% of China’s coconut imports. The opening months of 2025 continue the trend, with fresh coconut exports up 18% overall—and a staggering 46% in the US market. Meanwhile, processed coconut products saw an 86% jump year-on-year, reflecting robust global demand. As the government enacts policies to designate coconut as a strategic crop and certifications like VietGAP expand, production capacity and sustainability indicators are also rising. Regionally, Ben Tre remains the heart of production, benefitting from stable domestic pricing. With favorable weather and continued policy support, the outlook is bullish for 2025 and beyond.

📈 Prices: Latest Market Overview

The table below summarizes current coconut product prices at key trade hubs:

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price (USD/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Coconut dried	flakes	VN	Hanoi, VN	FOB	4.63	4.63	2025-06-07	Stable
Coconut dried	flakes (organic)	PH	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	3.00	3.05	2025-06-05	Softer
Coconut dried	flakes	PH	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.62	2.67	2025-06-05	Softer
Coconut dried	desiccated medium grade	ID	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.87	1.91	2025-06-05	Softer
Coconut dried	desiccated	ID	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.90	1.95	2025-06-05	Softer

• Fresh coconut prices in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta: 180,000–210,000 VND/dozen (approx. $7–$8.2 USD/dozen at 25,000 VND/USD).
• Retail price (Type 1): 25,000 VND ($1 USD) per coconut.
• Type 2: 140,000–170,000 VND/dozen.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Rapid expansion into China and the US: Exports to both are growing much faster than global averages.
• Vietnam is now the 3rd-largest coconut supplier to China, with policy backing and streamlined logistics.
• US market access drove exports up 11x since August 2023. This momentum is likely to continue in 2025.
• Processed coconut exports hit $43.8M in Jan–Feb 2025, up 86% YoY—they now outpace fresh coconut export increases.
• China’s limited domestic production: Ongoing high demand with production constraints.
• Vietnam’s stable but limited expanding acreage (200,000 ha) and increased areas under VietGAP certification are supporting export quality and sustainability.

📊 Fundamentals & Production Data

• Total national area: 200,000 ha (primarily Mekong Delta: 175,000 ha).
• Ben Tre Province: 78,000 ha, annual output ~688 million coconuts.
• Production 2024 (VN): Over 900 million USD in exports; expected >1.2 billion USD in 2025.
• Certified area: 30% VietGAP-certified; 30% w/ traceability codes—favors exports to premium markets.
• Global production leaders: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, India. Philippines/Indonesia remain key for flakes/desiccated product exports to Europe.
• Inventories: Tight in major importing nations, especially as Chinese and US orders surge.
• Speculative positioning: Bullish, with buyers frontloading ahead of possible further price upswings following recent growth.

🌦️ Weather & Outlook

• Mekong Delta (VN): Stable weather conditions forecast June–August; average rainfall expected, reducing drought/flood stress. High probability for a robust harvest through Q3 2025.
• Philippines, Indonesia: No extreme weather events in short-term forecasts; normal monsoon development, supporting output stability in export-oriented processed coconut products.
• Potential risks: Late-year typhoon activity may threaten harvests, but not imminent for June.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Estimated Production (million nuts)	2024 Export Value (USD million)	Key Markets
Vietnam	~1,200	>1,000	China, US, Europe, Middle East
Philippines	~15,200	>1,600	EU, US, China
Indonesia	~18,000	1,200	US, China, Malaysia, EU
India	~24,000	900	Middle East, ASEAN

📅 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish outlook for Vietnamese fresh and processed coconuts; recommend securing contracts early for Q3/Q4 delivery as demand is likely to continue climbing.
• Monitor US and China demand velocity: Both are key for 2025 price formation; upside risks remain if Chinese purchasing persists at current rates.
• Track weather/disaster risk in the Mekong Delta and southern Philippines—adverse events could reduce availability and push prices higher.
• Competitive Buyers: Premium for certified (VietGAP/org) product likely to expand as traceability/quality requirements increase from US/China/EU buyers.
• Watch for further government interventions and tariff changes, especially as Vietnam advances coconut as a “key national crop.”

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (June 8-10, 2025)

Date	Product	Location	Price Forecast (USD/kg)	Trend
2025-06-08	Coconut dried flakes	Hanoi (VN, FOB)	4.60–4.65	Stable
2025-06-08	Coconut dried flakes (organic)	Dordrecht (NL, FCA, PH origin)	2.95–3.05	Soft
2025-06-08	Coconut dried, desiccated	Dordrecht (NL, FCA, ID origin)	1.85–1.92	Soft
2025-06-09	Coconut dried flakes	Hanoi (VN, FOB)	4.60–4.68	Stable
2025-06-09	Coconut dried flakes (organic)	Dordrecht (NL, FCA, PH origin)	2.95–3.02	Soft
2025-06-09	Coconut dried, desiccated	Dordrecht (NL, FCA, ID origin)	1.85–1.90	Soft
2025-06-10	Coconut dried flakes	Hanoi (VN, FOB)	4.63–4.70	Stable
2025-06-10	Coconut dried flakes (organic)	Dordrecht (NL, FCA, PH origin)	2.95–3.05	Soft
2025-06-10	Coconut dried, desiccated	Dordrecht (NL, FCA, ID origin)	1.85–1.95	Soft