Vietnam’s passion fruit sector is experiencing an impressive surge, leveraging fertile ground to establish itself as a leading global player in both volume and value. With over 12,000 hectares under cultivation and annual output of 200,000 tons, Vietnam has become a linchpin in the international supply chain for this exotic fruit. Thanks to three harvests per year and robust agronomic practices, Vietnam is able to offer year-round availability — a critical competitive edge over many Latin American rivals. The expansion of export markets, particularly following official phytosanitary clearance to China in 2022 and recent protocol agreements in 2025, has cemented China as the top export destination.
Meanwhile, the anticipated opening of the U.S. market later this year adds another high-potential avenue for growth. Shifting from bulk exports to high-value products, Vietnamese passion fruit now reaches over 20 markets worldwide, from juice and syrups to fresh and dried formats. As quality, traceability, and sustainability efforts ramp up, Vietnam’s industry is well-positioned for further ascent, though stricter global standards and the need for reliable traceability present ongoing challenges. Recent momentum — highlighted by 14.5% year-on-year export growth in early 2025 — strongly signals Vietnam’s potential to push passion fruit into its billion-dollar club.
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passion fruit | Dried | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 6.90 | 6.88 | +0.29 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- 2024 Exports: $172 million (full year)
- 2025 YTD (Jan-May): $89.5 million, +14.5% YoY
- 70-80% of Vietnam’s production is exported to over 20 countries.
- Main Markets: China (largest), South Korea, Europe, expected USA in late 2025
- Processed products (juice, syrup) offer stable income and supply-chain resilience.
- Adoption of organic and traceable production is boosting access to premium markets.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Crop Area: 12,000+ hectares (mainly Central Highlands; >90%)
- Annual Production: ~200,000 tons
- Vietnam’s purple passion fruit variety is strongly favored in China and Europe over South America’s yellow types.
- Industry heavily export-oriented due to relative profitability versus domestic market.
- Major contract signed with China ensures phytosanitary standards and market stability from April 2025 onward.
- U.S. expected to open as an emerging, high-value destination this year.
- Comparison to Previous Period: Export volume and value have surged over 300% in five years, reaffirming the market’s sustained momentum.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- Current Weather (Central Highlands): Mostly favorable with regular monsoon rains ensuring ideal moisture for crop growth.
- Short-term Forecast: No severe droughts or excessive rain events predicted in the coming fortnight; steady growing conditions.
- Yield Expectations: Stable, with potential for slightly above-average output barring late-season storms.
- Weather remains a competitive advantage, enabling up to three harvests per year and year-round supply.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Estimated 2025 Production (tons) | Export Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 200,000 | High |
| Brazil | 600,000+ | Low (domestic market dominant) |
| Colombia | 65,000+ | Medium |
| Peru | 50,000+ | Medium |
| South Africa | 20,000+ | Medium |
Vietnam competes globally with a uniquely export-focused industry and a reputation for high traceability and quality, especially in the EU and Chinese markets.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Traders: Current momentum and robust demand, especially from China and Europe, point toward price stability/higher offers in Q3-Q4 2025.
- Exporters: Maintain strict compliance with new protocols and invest in traceability systems to unlock higher-value markets.
- Importers: Secure contracts early—weather is favorable, but risks remain for late-season storms; Vietnam’s year-round supply is a buffer.
- Processors: Capitalize on demand for juice/syrup in Europe and North Asia.
- Investors: Long-term potential remains strong; sector likely to join Vietnam’s billion-dollar club by 2026 if quality standards hold.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Exchange/Market | Product | Expected Price (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-15 | FOB Hanoi | Dried Passion fruit | 6.91 – 6.93 | ⬆️ Slightly Bullish |
| 2025-08-16 | FOB Hanoi | Dried Passion fruit | 6.92 – 6.95 | ⬆️ Bullish |
| 2025-08-17 | FOB Hanoi | Dried Passion fruit | 6.90 – 6.93 | ➡️ Stable |
Anticipate steady demand-driven price support, barring unforeseen weather or logistics disruptions.