Vietnam’s pepper industry, renowned as the world’s leading “black gold” supplier, is navigating a high-stakes landscape in 2025. Despite facing new US tariffs and only modest volume growth, the sector remains robust and resilient. Recent export data shows Vietnam shipped nearly 11,000 tons in early August, with export prices outpacing any minor declines in shipment volume. The industry has brilliantly offset the US’s 20% countervailing duties through stronger global prices and persistent demand from top importers, especially the US—which now buys over 60% of its pepper from Vietnam.
Domestically, farmgate prices have swiftly rebounded, and domestic bids have topped USD 5.80/kg, indicating short-lived tariff impacts. With Vietnamese exporters quickly recalibrating to a shifting global landscape and tighter world pepper inventories, the country’s export receipts are projected to approach USD 1.4 billion for 2025. Analysts forecast renewed US buying in the final months of the year and persistently firm global prices, pushing Vietnam toward another solid marketing season. Weather conditions remain favorable, cementing the case for bullish pricing as output falls but values surge.
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Pepper powder
black
FOB 8.83 €/kg
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Pepper
green dehydrated
FOB 8.53 €/kg
(from LK)
📈 Latest Market Prices & Sentiment
| Type | Origin | Grade/Specs | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper powder, black, organic | IN | – | New Delhi | FOB | 8.80 | 8.75 | +0.6% | Bullish |
| Pepper, white whole, organic | IN | – | New Delhi | FOB | 7.07 | 7.02 | +0.7% | Bullish |
| Pepper, green dehydrated, organic | LK | – | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | FOB | 8.50 | 8.45 | +0.6% | Bullish |
| Pepper, black whole 500 g/l | IN | Whole, 500 g/l | New Delhi | FOB | 8.10 | 8.05 | +0.6% | Bullish |
| Pepper, black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Black, 600 g/l, clean | Hanoi | FOB | 6.43 | 6.38 | +0.8% | Firm |
| Pepper, black 550 g/l, faq | VN | Black, 550 g/l, faq | Hanoi | FOB | 6.05 | 6.00 | +0.8% | Firm |
| Pepper, black 550 g/l, clean | VN | Black, 550 g/l, clean | Hanoi | FOB | 6.12 | 6.08 | +0.7% | Firm |
| Pepper, black 500 g/l, faq | VN | Black, 500 g/l, faq | Hanoi | FOB | 5.85 | 5.80 | +0.9% | Firm |
| Pepper, black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Black, 500 g/l, clean | Hanoi | FOB | 6.15 | 6.10 | +0.8% | Firm |
| Pepper, black 5 mm, extra bold | VN | Black, 5 mm, extra bold | Hanoi | FOB | 6.55 | 6.50 | +0.8% | Firm |
| Pepper, black 500 g/l, clean | IN | Black, 500 g/l, clean | New Delhi | FOB | 5.65 | 5.59 | +1.1% | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Market Drivers
- Vietnam exported 11,000 tons in early August 2025 (USD 72 million); despite a marginal 0.2% dip in volume, value rose by 2.1% owing to higher prices.
- Total pepper export turnover has reached USD 1.06 billion by mid-August.
- Vietnam sent nearly 33,000 tons to the US (Jan–Jul 2025), up 21% YoY, dominating US market share (64.4%).
- US countervailing duty (20%) pressured prices temporarily, but market rebounded strongly.
- Vietnam’s 2025 export volume is projected at 220,000 tons (down from 250,000 tons in 2024), but value expected to hit USD 1.4 billion due to higher prices.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Inventory
- 2024 exports: 250,600 tons (USD 1.32 billion); black pepper averaged USD 6,476/ton, white pepper USD 8,198/ton.
- Export receipts likely to remain stable (~USD 1.3 billion) after US duties impact revenue.
- Contracted 2025 supply and robust demand point to continued tightness in world stocks.
- Speculative interest remains high amid price rally and lower Vietnam output.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Favorable monsoon conditions reported in southern Vietnam and main pepper areas; no major reports of drought or pests this season.
- Continued mild weather bodes well for late 2025 harvests and quality but may slightly temper the size of the crop.
🌍 Global Production & Stock Snapshot
| Country | 2024 Production (tons) | 2025E Production (tons) | 2025E Export (tons) | Estimated Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | ~275,000 | ~245,000 | 220,000 | ~55 |
| India | 65,000 | 63,000 | 16,000 | 14 |
| Indonesia | 59,500 | 57,500 | 50,000 | 13 |
| Brazil | 53,000 | 50,000 | 45,000 | 11 |
| Others | 40,000 | 39,000 | 18,000 | 7 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish undertone: Persistently high global prices and limited export availability support a positive medium-term outlook.
- Inventory building: Importers and traders are likely to secure contracts by late Q3, ahead of anticipated US seasonal demand surge.
- Potential volatility: Watch for speculative activity and tariff adjustments that could trigger short-term swings.
- Domestic buyers: Lock in current prices if possible, as Southeast Asian supply tightness should keep upward pressure on spot and forward values.
- Exporters: Focus on quality assurance for premium contract opportunities, especially as European and North American buyers scramble for limited high-grade lots.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Origin | FOB Location | Product / Grade | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Sentiment (Next 3 days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Hanoi | Black 550 g/l, clean | 6.12 | 6.10–6.18 | Bullish to Firm |
| Vietnam | Hanoi | Black 500 g/l, faq | 5.85 | 5.82–5.90 | Bullish |
| India | New Delhi | Black, organic, 500 g/l | 5.65 | 5.62–5.72 | Firm |
| India | New Delhi | White whole, organic | 7.07 | 7.05–7.15 | Bullish |
