The global walnut market is undergoing subtle but significant changes, as both traditional exporters and innovative, mission-driven producers adapt to shifting consumer demands and market realignments. Notable among new entrants, Ukraine’s Food for Thought exemplifies the rise of sustainability-focused, value-added walnut production, emphasizing organic standards and advanced processing technologies. Meanwhile, international trade flows remain stable, with China, the US, Iran, and India continuing to dominate cross-border walnut trade. Market prices on key exchanges are largely steady, reflecting strong harvest expectations in major producing areas and resilience in demand despite macroeconomic headwinds.
The expansion of organic walnut operations is starting to shift the market narrative, especially as premium buyers in Europe and North America seek traceable and eco-certified supplies. However, organic walnuts command a clear price premium and face additional cost and regulatory hurdles, which could influence supply trends moving into the new season. Looking ahead, the walnut sector is well-positioned for modest growth with innovations in processing, positive weather outlooks for critical growing regions, and encouraging signs for both domestic consumption and export potential.
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Walnut kernels
light quarter
FOB 3.40 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light amber pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.35 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.90 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices: Recent Walnut Market Benchmarks
| Product | Origin | Organic | Location | Type/Grade | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walnut kernels | CN | No | Dalian | Light quarter | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | CN | No | Dalian | Light amber pieces, 8-12 mm | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | CN | No | Dalian | Light pieces, 8-12 mm | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | CN | No | Dalian | Light broken, 4-8 mm | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels (Light halves 80%) | US | Yes | London | Light halves | 4.65 | 4.67 | 2025-08-14 | Mildly Bearish |
| Walnut kernels | IN | Yes | New Delhi | Light halves | 5.50 | 5.52 | 2025-08-14 | Mildly Bearish |
| Walnut kernels | IR | No | Tehran | Premium | 9.53 | 9.30 | 2025-07-23 | Bullish |
| Walnut kernels | IR | No | Tehran | Grade B | 6.00 | 5.94 | 2025-07-23 | Bullish |
| Walnut kernels | IR | No | Tehran | Grade A | 7.65 | 7.53 | 2025-07-23 | Bullish |
| Walnut kernels (inshell, premium) | IR | No | Tehran | Inshell, premium | 4.41 | 4.41 | 2025-07-23 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels (inshell, grade B) | IR | No | Tehran | Inshell, grade B | 3.47 | 3.47 | 2025-07-23 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels (inshell, grade A) | IR | No | Tehran | Inshell, grade A | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2025-07-23 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Production: China remains the leading producer, followed by the United States, Iran, Turkey, and Ukraine. New entrants like Food for Thought boost organic supply.
- Demand: EU and North America show steady consumption, with interest rising in certified organic nuts. Asian markets remain robust for bulk and processed walnuts.
- Processing Trends: Vertical integration (example: Food for Thought) and investment in processing innovation are expected to drive value-added growth and premium product categories.
- Stock Levels: Inventories in key exporting countries are stable. US cold storage is ample, but some regional tightness is noted in premium and organic categories.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Crop Reports & Acreage: The USDA projects US walnut acreage to be mildly down for the next crop year, but yield per hectare remains at strong levels thanks to favorable weather and modern agricultural practices.
- Speculative Positioning: No significant speculative buildup. The market for processed and organic walnuts is more supply-driven than speculative or financialized.
- Trade Pressures: Global sanctions and shipping disruptions have had limited direct effect on walnut flows, but exporters from Ukraine and Iran pay close attention to logistical bottlenecks.
- Quality Segmentation: Organic and large-piece kernels maintain a price premium. Greater traceability and food safety certification (as practiced by Food for Thought with HACCP and European standards) increasingly drive trade contracts.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- US Central Valley (CA): Current forecasts indicate continued mild, dry weather with occasional cool fronts—ideal for nut set and maturation. No severe heat stress expected in the next 10 days.
- China (Xinjiang, Shanxi): Rainfall patterns normal to light; irrigation reserves sufficient. Minor localized flooding risk but overall outlook positive.
- Ukraine: Ukrainian walnut regions, including Kyiv and Vinnytsia, anticipate seasonally moderate rainfall, supporting orchard soil moisture. No late frost or drought risk forecasted short-term; excellent conditions for organic growers such as Food for Thought.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Table
| Country | 2023/24 Prod. (1,000 MT) | 2023/24 Stocks (1,000 MT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 1,150 | 380 | Steady output, robust domestic use |
| USA | 700 | 155 | High quality; shift toward organic |
| Iran | 265 | 44 | Export-oriented, some logistic delays |
| Ukraine | 110 | 17 | Growth in premium organic segment |
| Turkey | 77 | 16 | Rising, mostly for domestic |
📌 Trading Outlook & Strategic Insights
- Organic walnut demand is strong in Europe and North America—producers with traceable supply should prioritize export contracts.
- Conventional segment remains price-competitive; focus on kernel sizing and appearance for maximum value.
- Monitor global freight rates and potential shipping bottlenecks, especially on the Black Sea route for Ukrainian and Iranian exporters.
- Bullish: Iranian grades A and B, premium segment showed recent upward price pressure—potential for further gains if demand persists.
- Mildly bearish: US and Indian organic walnut halves saw slight price easing—reflects seasonal demand variation.
- Processing and packaging innovation (e.g., by Food for Thought) can unlock new premium market opportunities, especially for oil and specialty products.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Origin | 2025-08-15 | 2025-08-16 | 2025-08-17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| China (Dalian) | 3.40 €/kg | 3.40 €/kg | 3.40 €/kg |
| USA (London) | 4.64 €/kg | 4.65 €/kg | 4.66 €/kg |
| India (New Delhi) | 5.49 €/kg | 5.50 €/kg | 5.50 €/kg |
| Iran (Tehran, Premium) | 9.55 €/kg | 9.60 €/kg | 9.60 €/kg |
Note: Prices based on current spot and futures offers; minor variations may occur due to local supply, logistics, and currency risk.
