Walnut Market Outlook: Global Recovery Strengthens, Stable Prices Ahead of Harvest Surge

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The global walnut market is entering a period of notable stability and cautious optimism as main producing regions report favorable weather and promising harvests. In China, the world’s leading walnut supplier, harvest begins in September with early arrivals expected by the end of August. The Xinjiang and Yunnan growing areas have benefited from excellent weather, supporting expectations of stable yields. However, with currently limited inventories, suppliers remain reticent to release old stock, a stance reinforced by high domestic demand surging around the mid-autumn festival in October. Meanwhile, California—the United States’ top walnut region—and Chile are both seeing a recovery in output thanks to improved growing conditions. Early signs suggest an easing of last season’s supply constraints.

Price action in the European market has been steady, with 40% LHP US Chandler walnut kernels transacting at about $7.73/kg FCA Antwerp for prompt shipments. At origin, Chinese walnut kernel prices have held firm in early August, with little variation across major grades and formats, reflecting measured trading activity and anticipation ahead of the new crop arrival. As the market navigates the seasonal transition, participants are weighing robust demand against tightening old-crop supplies and the outlook for global production. In the coming weeks, all eyes will be on the magnitude and pace of Chinese and US harvests, as well as evolving buying patterns in key importing countries.

📈 Walnut Prices at a Glance

Origin Product Type Location Delivery Terms Current Price (EUR/kg) Weekly Change Sentiment
China Light quarter Dalian FOB 3.40 0.00 Neutral
China Light Amber 8-12 mm Dalian FOB 2.35 0.00 Neutral
China Light Pieces 8-12 mm Dalian FOB 2.90 0.00 Neutral
US Light Halves 80% Organic London FOB 4.67 0.00 Stable
US 40% LHP Chandler Kernel Antwerp FCA 7.73 (USD) +0.00 Stable
Iran Premium Tehran FOB 9.53 +0.23 Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

  • China: Favorable weather in Xinjiang and Yunnan underpins yield stability. Old crop inventories remain tight as suppliers hold for better prices ahead of festival demand spikes.
  • United States: California’s crop is recovering after previous weather setbacks, projecting an uptick in exportable volumes, especially to Europe and Asia.
  • Chile: Positive production rebound adds further stability to international supply chains.
  • Europe: Consistent demand from confectionery and bakery sectors sustains price stability, with prompt-shipment kernels well bid.
  • India & Iran: Limited impact expected as major demand-side pull remains in Asia-Pacific and EU.

📊 Global Production & Stocks

Country 2024/25 Production (est. 1,000 mt) Stock Position Note
China 1,150 Low, old-crop Harvest begins Sep; old stocks tightly held
USA 760 Improving Production recovery underway
Chile 155 Normal Good 2024 output
Iran 84 Low Weather-affected earlier, slower export

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

  • China: Recent weather in main walnut growing regions (Xinjiang, Yunnan) has remained favorable—ample sun and moisture. No frost or drought risks reported. Early harvest window beginning end of August may be lengthy, supporting steady arrivals.
  • USA: California reports mild temperatures and sufficient water supplies. The outlook is positive for both kernel size and yields through harvest.
  • Chile: Weather continues to cooperate, signaling above-average yields and kernel quality.
  • Outlook: No short-term weather shock expected in any major growing region for next 3–5 days, supporting stable price and supply outlooks.

📌 Market Drivers & Fundamentals

  • Suppliers holding back old stock in China due to inventory tightness.
  • Peak domestic demand in October likely to push prices higher in Asian spot markets.
  • Production recovery in the US and Chile eases some medium-term supply worries.
  • European buyers remain active, while wholesale prices in Antwerp set the international tone.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • Buyers: Consider covering short-term needs now; prices are stable with potential upside as China’s festival nears and old-crop inventories dwindle.
  • 📦 Sellers: Hold on to remaining old crop until mid-September, when demand peaks may present stronger spot opportunities.
  • 🌊 Exporters (US, Chile): Prepare for active October trade as Chinese demand could tighten global availabilities and lift prices in the EU.
  • 🔍 Watch: Early arrival of Chinese crop. If pace is slow, expect spot prices to firm in September, especially for premium grades.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange Current Bid (EUR/kg) 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) Sentiment
China FOB Dalian (Light Quarter) 3.40 3.40–3.45 Stable to Firm
US FOB London (Light Halves 80% Org.) 4.67 4.65–4.72 Stable
Antwerp FCA (Chandler 40%) 7.73 (USD) 7.70–7.80 (USD) Stable