India’s walnut market remains resilient against the backdrop of sluggish consumer demand and slower retail movement. Despite international walnut prices falling, Indian wholesale and retail prices have maintained a firm tone, propped up by reduced import volumes and limited domestic availability. This restricted supply, particularly as import inflows slow dramatically, has effectively shielded the market from potential price softening, even as buying remains measured.
Currently, wholesale walnut prices in India range from $6 to $9 per kg, heavily influenced by quality, while retail prices for premium product climb to $16–$20 per kg. Lower imports have kept the local market tight, preventing the development of a supply glut and supporting overall price stability.
As the festive season approaches—including Diwali, from September to November—market participants are cautiously optimistic about a resurgence in demand. Many expect improved retail movement and increased consumption, although supply remains notably lower versus last year. Sellers currently face little pressure to discount or liquidate inventory. For the coming months, unless an unexpected influx of cheap imports occurs, Indian walnut prices are likely to remain firm or appreciate slightly as demand rebounds.
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FOB 2.90 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Light Quarter | Dalian | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2025-07-26 | Stable |
| China | Light Amber Pieces (8-12mm) | Dalian | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2025-07-26 | Stable |
| China | Light Pieces (8-12mm) | Dalian | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2025-07-26 | Stable |
| China | Light Broken (4-8mm) | Dalian | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2025-07-26 | Stable |
| USA | Light Halves (Organic, 80%) | London | 4.67 | 4.67 | 2025-07-26 | Stable |
| India | Light Halves (Organic) | New Delhi | 5.52 | 5.52 | 2025-07-26 | Stable |
| Iran | Premium | Tehran | 9.53 | 9.30 | 2025-07-23 | Firm |
| Iran | Grade B | Tehran | 6.00 | 5.94 | 2025-07-23 | Firm |
| Iran | Grade A | Tehran | 7.65 | 7.53 | 2025-07-23 | Firm |
| Iran | Inshell Premium | Tehran | 4.41 | 4.41 | 2025-07-23 | Stable |
| Iran | Inshell Grade B | Tehran | 3.47 | 3.47 | 2025-07-23 | Stable |
| Iran | Inshell Grade A | Tehran | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2025-07-23 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Weak retail demand persists, but supply constraints due to reduced import availability keep the market firm.
- Imports: Global prices are lower, which theoretically benefits importers, yet actual import flows to India remain slow—limiting domestic availability.
- Festive Season (September–November): Expected uptick in consumer demand with Diwali and associated festivals, likely boosting retail movement.
- Global Market: Oversupply is evident internationally, but shipment bottlenecks and selective Indian buying support local price floors.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Wholesale Prices (IN): $6–$9/kg
- Retail Prices (IN): $16–$20/kg
- Recent Price Trend: Stable, with minor firming for premium origins (notably IR, US, IN) on tighter supplies.
- Inventory: Trade reports note sellers are not pressured to discount, indicating healthy pipeline management.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Forecast
- India (Jammu & Kashmir): Normal monsoon thus far, but a brief dry spell reported. If dryness persists, yield could be slightly impacted, potentially exacerbating supply tightness into the festive peak.
- US (California): Favorable summer so far, with mild heat spells. Crop projections remain in line with USDA’s estimate—ample global supply but local logistical challenges.
- Iran: Some hail and uneven precipitation earlier in the season; final impacts on quality/volume are still being assessed.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Expected Output (mt) | Stock Change |
|---|---|---|
| China | ~1,100,000 | Stable |
| USA | ~700,000 | Slightly Lower |
| Iran | ~350,000 | Uncertain (due to weather) |
| India | ~40,000 | Lower than LY |
| EU | ~120,000 | Slight Increase |
🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Buyers: Secure supplies for the festive season; prices likely to stay firm or rise modestly given current supply bottlenecks.
- For Sellers: Hold inventory for now, target festive demand spikes before adjusting offer prices.
- Importers: Watch global spot markets for sudden dips—any sharp international price fall may briefly open arbitrage windows.
- Monitor: Weather developments in India and Iran for late-season crop risks, and any policy changes on agri-imports.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region & Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| India (Wholesale) | 6.00–9.00 ($/kg) | Stable to Firm ⬆️ |
| India (Retail) | 16.00–20.00 ($/kg) | Stable |
| Iran (Tehran) | 6.00–9.53 | Firm |
| China (Dalian, FOB) | 2.35–3.40 | Stable |
| US (London, FOB) | 4.67 | Stable |