The global walnut market is navigating a tumultuous phase as Indian growers, especially from Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), face declining profitability against the backdrop of surging imports and sluggish domestic demand. With harvest underway in Kashmir—the epicenter of India’s walnut production—local farmers report that prices remain flat after last year’s steep declines. Large-scale imports from California, Chile, and China offer competitive pricing and uniform quality, making them increasingly attractive for domestic buyers.
Meanwhile, Kashmiri walnuts, prized for their organic cultivation and rich flavor profile, are struggling to maintain a premium due to market pressures, GST imposition, and a lack of concerted governmental support. Despite producing 95% of India’s walnuts and upholding traditional, organic methods, local growers warn that without immediate policy intervention, many could exit walnut farming entirely, threatening the region’s agricultural heritage.
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Walnut kernels
light quarter
FOB 3.35 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light amber pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.30 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.85 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Organic | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walnut kernels | China | Dalian | Light quarter | No | 3.40 | 0% | Stable, weak demand |
| Walnut kernels | China | Dalian | Light amber, pieces (8-12mm) | No | 2.35 | 0% | Bearish |
| Walnut kernels | China | Dalian | Light pieces (8-12mm) | No | 2.90 | 0% | Bearish |
| Walnut kernels | China | Dalian | Light broken (4-8mm) | No | 3.00 | 0% | Bearish |
| Walnut kernels (light halves, 80%) | USA | London | Light halves | Yes | 4.65 | 0% | Firm on specialty demand |
| Walnut kernels | India | New Delhi | Light halves | Yes | 5.50 | 0% | Weak, niche interest |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- J&K supplies 95% of India’s walnuts: 275,000 tons/year from 89,000 ha.
- Main production districts: Anantnag (9,915 t), Kupwara (8,824 t), Ganderbal (5,454 t).
- Import pressure: Low-cost competition from California, Chile & China threatens local growers—imported walnuts preferred for size & appearance.
- Quality gap: Kashmiri walnuts valued for organic & chemical-free production but undercut by price and appearance of imports.
- Domestic demand: Stagnant; industry sentiment remains bearish.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- GST impact: A 5% Goods & Services Tax makes Indian walnuts less competitive.
- Imports: Record imports from US, Chile & China erode domestic prices.
- Farmer margins squeezed: Many smallholders see profits evaporate.
- Marketing deficit: Lack of state/institutional support for branding and marketing Kashmiri walnuts.
- Inventory build-up: Persistent oversupply and weak offtake exacerbate price weakness.
- Previous year comparison: Sentiment unchanged from last review; prices are flat and demand remains subdued.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- J&K weather 3-day forecast: Mostly dry with mild temperatures (25–28°C); no major rains expected, favorable for harvest completion.
- Potential impact: Stable weather should ensure good post-harvest handling and reduce spoilage risks. However, prolonged price weakness is the bigger concern for farmer income.
🌏 Global Production & Inventories
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Est.) | Exports | Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (J&K) | 275,000 t | Minimal | Rising/local |
| USA (CA) | 710,000 t | High | Large |
| China | 1,100,000 t | Substantial | High |
| Chile | 185,000 t | Strong | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔴 Bears prevail: Significant import pressure and oversupply will likely keep local prices subdued near current levels.
- ⚠️ Cautious buying: Buyers can find value among Chinese origins; use price weakness to secure coverage for near-term requirements.
- 🟢 Watch for intervention: Any Indian government move to limit imports or incentivize local buying could trigger rapid price recovery—monitor policy news.
- 🔵 Branding & niche marketing: Exporters & cooperatives may benefit from promoting the organic quality of Kashmiri walnuts in select international markets.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- China (Dalian, bulk kernels): EUR 2.35–3.40/kg – Weak demand, stable/soft bias.
- India (New Delhi, organic halves): EUR 5.40–5.50/kg – Limited recovery, sluggish sales.
- UK (London, US organic halves): EUR 4.60–4.70/kg – Premium holding on specialty trade.