The global walnut market is experiencing a notable shift, driven primarily by recent geopolitical developments in South Asia. India’s decision to impose a blanket ban on imports from Pakistan, including Afghan walnuts that previously entered via the Attari-Wagah border, has sent ripples through the industry. This move, while disrupting cross-border trade, has brought unexpected relief to walnut growers in Jammu and Kashmir. For years, local producers struggled against a flood of cheaper Afghan and global walnuts, resulting in declining demand and prices for domestic output. However, with imports now halted, local demand and prices have surged by 15-20%, offering a much-needed lifeline to an industry long under duress.
Despite this positive momentum, the sector faces persistent challenges. The area under walnut cultivation in Kashmir has steadily declined, and export volumes remain below historical highs. Meanwhile, the international market continues to be shaped by major exporters such as California, China, and Chile, while India remains a key importer. The current market landscape is characterized by tightening supply, upward price pressure, and heightened uncertainty over future trade policies and weather conditions. In this report, we analyze the latest price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and fundamental factors shaping the walnut market, with a focus on the implications of India’s trade policy shift and global production outlook.
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Walnut kernels
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FOB 3.40 €/kg
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Walnut kernels
light amber pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.35 €/kg
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📈 Prices: Latest Walnut Market Prices
| Origin | Type | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price (USD/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN | Light pieces, 8-12 mm | Dalian | FOB | 2.90 | 2.88 | 2025-05-23 | Firm |
| CN | Light quarter | Dalian | FOB | 3.40 | 3.45 | 2025-05-23 | Softening |
| CN | Light amber pieces, 8-12 mm | Dalian | FOB | 2.35 | 2.41 | 2025-05-23 | Softening |
| CN | Light broken, 4-8 mm | Dalian | FOB | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2025-05-23 | Softening |
| US | Light halves (organic, 80%) | London | FOB | 4.70 | 4.75 | 2025-05-23 | Stable |
| IN | Light halves (organic) | New Delhi | FOB | 5.55 | 5.60 | 2025-05-23 | Firm |
| IR | Premium | Tehran | FOB | 9.09 | 8.51 | 2025-05-03 | Rising |
| IR | Grade B | Tehran | FOB | 5.97 | 5.59 | 2025-05-03 | Rising |
| IR | Grade A | Tehran | FOB | 7.47 | 6.99 | 2025-05-03 | Rising |
| IR | Inshell, premium | Tehran | FOB | 4.42 | 4.13 | 2025-05-03 | Rising |
| IR | Inshell, grade B | Tehran | FOB | 3.51 | 3.28 | 2025-05-03 | Rising |
| IR | Inshell, grade A | Tehran | FOB | 4.03 | 3.77 | 2025-05-03 | Rising |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- India’s Import Ban: The ban on Pakistani imports (including Afghan walnuts) has sharply increased demand and prices for Indian-grown walnuts, boosting local industry sentiment.
- Reduced Competition: Previously, Afghan walnuts undercut local prices. Their absence has allowed Indian producers to regain market share and pricing power.
- Declining Cultivation: Area under walnut cultivation in Kashmir has gradually decreased from 47,004 ha (2017-18) to 46,197 ha (2021-22), indicating a structural supply constraint.
- Export Trends: Kashmir’s walnut exports have not recovered to pre-2019 highs, despite a modest rebound in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
- Global Trade Flows: India imported nearly 1.9 million kg of Afghan walnuts in 2023, valued at $9.59 million, now halted due to policy change.
- Major Exporters: US (California), China, Iran, and Chile continue to dominate global exports, affecting international price benchmarks.
📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Trade
| Country | 2023 Production (est.) | 2023 Exports (est.) | 2023 Imports (est.) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (Kashmir) | ~270,000 MT | 267,000 MT | 1,900 MT (Afghanistan, now 0) | Declining |
| USA (California) | ~720,000 MT | 620,000 MT | Low | Stable |
| China | ~1,200,000 MT | 80,000 MT | Low | Stable |
| Iran | ~350,000 MT | 100,000 MT | Low | Rising |
| Chile | ~170,000 MT | 150,000 MT | Low | Stable |
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Kashmir: Current weather is favorable, with adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures supporting walnut development. No major adverse events reported, but late spring rains could affect pollination.
- California: After a wet winter, water availability is good, but growers monitor for late frost risks. Crop prospects are stable.
- China: Weather conditions are normal; no significant disruptions expected in main walnut-producing provinces.
- Chile/Iran: Entering post-harvest phase; no major quality issues reported.
📌 Key Insights & Trading Outlook
- Indian walnut prices are trending higher due to the import ban and supply constraints – expect continued firmness in the short term.
- International prices are mixed: Chinese and US walnut prices are softening, while Iranian grades show strong gains.
- Monitor Indian government policies for potential further trade restrictions or support to local growers.
- Watch for any weather disruptions in Kashmir or California that could impact 2025 crop yields.
- Exporters may benefit from the firming Indian market, while importers should anticipate higher costs and potential delays in supply adjustment.
- Speculative buying could intensify if further trade disruptions or weather events occur.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian (CN) | Light pieces, 8-12 mm | 2.90 | 2.92 – 2.95 | Firm |
| London (GB) | Light halves (organic) | 4.70 | 4.68 – 4.72 | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN) | Light halves (organic) | 5.55 | 5.60 – 5.65 | Firm |
| Tehran (IR) | Premium | 9.09 | 9.10 – 9.20 | Rising |