Walnut Market Surges as Inshell Shipments Skyrocket & Packers Sell Out

The global walnut market has entered a period of substantial change, marked by a record-breaking surge in inshell shipment volumes and a tightening supply scenario, especially in California. In February 2026, inshell walnut shipments reached an unprecedented 35.7 million lbs, a monumental increase compared to February 2025’s 6.5 million lbs. Kernel shipments have also registered significant growth, climbing from 45.0 million lbs last year to 54.9 million lbs this year. The finalized 2025/2026 California crop is 789,370 tons of conventional nuts with an additional 19,532 tons of organic, providing crucial context for the strong export activity observed.

The market is seeing vigorous demand for inshell walnuts, juxtaposed against sporadic kernel demand. Notably, many California packers are close to being sold out as they prepare for the seasonal high temperatures of April and May, which force those lacking cold storage to clear inventory quickly. Market prices for inshell walnuts remain firm, with limited availability of premium, pre-rain non-stained lots adding further upward pressure. Competitive supply dynamics are heightened by upcoming new-crop activity from Chile, set to commence from mid-March onwards. Current global demand trends, paired with these supply fundamentals, suggest heightened price sensitivity and particular volatility in the coming months.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type / Grade	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date
Walnut kernels	CN	Light quarters	FOB Dalian	3.30	3.30	2026-03-05
Walnut kernels	CN	Light amber pieces, 8-12mm	FOB Dalian	2.25	2.25	2026-03-05
Walnut kernels	CN	Light pieces, 8-12mm	FOB Dalian	2.80	2.80	2026-03-05
Walnut kernels	CN	Light broken, 4-8mm	FOB Dalian	2.90	2.90	2026-03-05
Walnut kernels (organic)	IN	Light halves	FOB New Delhi	5.30	5.30	2026-03-05
Walnut kernels (organic, 80%)	US/GB	Light halves	FOB London	4.50	4.50	2026-03-05

California Inshell Market:
– Stained inshell: ~0.95 USD/lb FAS
– Non-stained inshell: 1.05–1.10 USD/lb FAS

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Inshell demand remains exceptionally robust: February shipments exceeded last year by over 400%.
• Kernel/halves demand is elevated but volatile: There is a preference for higher halve count Chandler material.
• California is almost 90% sold out: Packers without cold storage seek to clear inventory before hot weather arrives.
• Chilean harvest enters market soon: The first Chilean walnuts will ship from late March, potentially introducing fresh competition in global trade.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Crop size: Final 2025/2026 receipts total 789,370 tons conventional, 19,532 tons organic in California.
• Shipping bottlenecks: The Middle East situation could risk delays in March shipments, adding to near-term volatility.
• Inventory squeeze: Limited supplies of pre-rain, non-stained inshell and packers almost sold out suggest a tightening premium quality market.
• Firm pricing: Both inshell and kernel prices remain stable at high levels, underpinning bullish sentiment.
• Speculative positioning: With very little carryout expected by end of season, further upward price adjustments are possible.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• California: Approaching seasonal heat in April/May makes logistics and cold storage critical, accelerating packers’ efforts to sell out.
• Chile: The harvest window begins early March; current indications suggest normal crop development, but the pace and quality of new-crop arrivals may affect global replacement values starting April.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• California:
  • 789,370 tons (conventional)
  • 19,532 tons (organic)
• Chile: Expected to contribute significantly to inshell exports from late March forward, potentially easing tightness in some markets.
• China: Remains a major player, particularly in kernel trade, with current export prices providing a benchmark for FOB Asian deliveries.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor March shipment performance and global logistics disruptions for near-term volatility triggers.
• Expect continued tightness and possible firmer pricing for high-quality, non-stained inshell lots in California.
• Price risk leans bullish until early April; Chilean crop arrival will be watched closely for relief in supply.
• Buyers with quality/halves requirement should secure supplies soon, as packers report being up to 90% sold out nearing seasonal heat.
• For kernel buyers, consider forward contracting before increased competition from new-crop Chilean origins alters price dynamics.
• Traders: Supply-demand fundamentals favor holding remaining premium inventory in the short term, but be swift to react to incoming new-crop Chilean offer curves from April onwards.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin & Product	Current Price (EUR/kg or USD/lb)	Forecast (3 days)	Sentiment
California Inshell (non-stained)	1.05–1.10 USD/lb	Unchanged to slightly firm	Bullish
California Inshell (stained)	0.95 USD/lb	Stable	Neutral-Bullish
China Kernels (light qtrs)	3.30 EUR/kg	Stable	Neutral
Chilean Inshell	N/A (pre-harvest)	First prices likely firm on arrival	Watching