Walnut Market Surges: Chilean Exports Boost Global Flows, Prices Stay Stable

The global walnut market is in the midst of dynamic shifts, shaped by robust Chilean exports, divergent regional demand, and stable product pricing. Between March and July, Chile, one of the world’s major walnut suppliers, recorded a notable 15% year-on-year increase in total exports, reaching 73,787 tons (in-shell equivalent). This impressive surge was driven by particularly strong demand in Europe and the Middle East, which managed to counterbalance a marked contraction in Asian imports. However, recent data reveal a slowdown in July, suggesting that elevated supply may not fully translate to sustained export momentum or higher prices in the coming months. German and Italian markets experienced outstanding growth, while the Middle East—especially the UAE and Turkey—captured sizable gains. Meanwhile, Asian demand fell sharply, most notably in India and China, with only Vietnam bucking the trend.

Market prices for walnut kernels across key origins (China, US, and India) remain stable, with little change from previous weeks, reflecting a well-supplied market and subdued spot demand. Fundamentals such as global stock movement, shipment patterns, and expected crop yields continue to paint a picture of balance. Weather patterns in leading growing regions—Chile, California, and China—are currently supportive, with mostly favorable conditions pointing to average-to-above-average output for the next harvest. Speculative positioning is muted, as traders weigh the impact of recent export surges against weaker Asian buys and potential currency shifts. For walnut stakeholders, these factors suggest a market in transition—holding ample supply, yet watching for demand triggers and weather risks that could reshape the landscape ahead.

📈 Prices: Global Walnut Offers & Market Sentiment

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Walnut kernels	Light quarter	China	Dalian	FOB	3.40	0.00	Stable/Supplied
Walnut kernels	Light amber pieces, 8-12 mm	China	Dalian	FOB	2.35	0.00	Stable/Supplied
Walnut kernels	Light pieces, 8-12 mm	China	Dalian	FOB	2.90	0.00	Stable/Supplied
Walnut kernels	Light broken, 4-8 mm	China	Dalian	FOB	3.00	0.00	Stable/Supplied
Walnut kernels	Light halves (organic, 80%)	US	London	FOB	4.65	0.00	Premium/Organic
Walnut kernels	Light halves (organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	5.50	0.00	Premium/Organic

🌍 Supply & Demand: Export, Regional Flows, and Consumer Trends

• Chilean Exports: +15% YoY (Mar-Jul 2024)—Total 73,787 tons in-shell equivalent.
• In-shell: +11% (48,159 tons), Shelled: +22% (11,738 tons).
• July Slowdown: In-shell -6%, Shelled +5%, overall -2% (24,782 tons) month-on-month.

• Europe: Most dynamic, with in-shell +35.5% (notably Germany +168%, Italy +39%) and shelled +31.3%.
• Middle East & Africa: In-shell +60.8% (UAE +493%, Turkey +60%), Morocco -60%; shelled -13.6%.
• Asia: Major contraction—In-shell -40.8%, Shelled -10.2% (India -43%, China: 0 imports vs 855t last year). Vietnam up 524% from a small base.
• Americas: In-shell +6.2%, Shelled -15.9%—mixed signals.

📊 Market Fundamentals & External Drivers

• Latest USDA/industry projections: World stocks remain comfortable, but key supplier inventories are expected to tighten without significant new demand growth.
• Speculative Positioning: Muted, with most traders hedged until clearer demand patterns or crop shocks emerge.
• Currency & Freight: Stable, with minor risks from freight bottlenecks or currency volatility in late 2024.
• Comparison to Last Report: Similar pricing levels; the latest period sees even greater divergence in regional demand, especially weakness in Asia offset by gains in Europe and Middle East.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Walnut Regions

• Chile: Recent rains have ensured soil moisture, supporting kernel development—prospects for average-to-above-average yield.
• California: Mild temperatures and good irrigation availability foreseen for the coming week—favorable for ongoing crop maturation.
• Xinjiang, China: Normal seasonal weather; no major concerns over stress or disease outbreaks reported.

Impact: Current regional weather conditions minimize immediate crop risk, supporting ongoing market stability.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Prod. Estimate (in-shell, 1000 MT)	Exports (2024, 1000 MT)	Key Trends
US (California)	750	625	Steady, high-quality, some post-harvest quality issues.
Chile	180	~74 (Mar-Jul)	Strong growth in exports, Europe/Middle East-led.
China	1400	225	Most production for domestic use, some export signals.
India	38	11	Low production, mostly consumed domestically.
Turkey	75	15	Rising imports, focusing on value-added sector.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Ample global stocks and steady shipments suggest no immediate supply crunch—prices likely to stay stable short-term.
• Divergence in regional demand: Monitor Europe and Middle East for additional price support; Asia likely to remain quiet near-term.
• Forward buyers should consider locking in contracts on kernels from stable origins (China, California) as global freight and weather risks may increase closer to harvest.
• Traders should watch freight and currency trends in Q3/Q4 for potential moves.
• Long-term investment: Focusing on premium organic/halves may offer upside with rising consumer trends in health-focused markets (e.g. Europe, NA).

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges & FOB)

Origin	Product	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)
China	Light quarter	3.40	3.40
China	Light amber pieces	2.35	2.35
China	Light pieces	2.90	2.90
China	Light broken	3.00	3.00
US (London)	Light halves (org, 80%)	4.65	4.65
India (Delhi)	Light halves (org)	5.50	5.50

Stability is forecasted across all reference origins with no major price deviations expected within the next 3 days.