Weather Uncertainty and Global Supply Chains Keep Lentils Market Cautious

The lentils market enters late August 2025 under a cloud of uncertainty—caught between comfortable production forecasts and a host of looming supply chain risks. Recent trends indicate a persistent wariness among traders and processors, shaped by volatile weather in key growing regions and external shocks across global trade routes. Prices for major lentil types have been steady, with Canadian origins reflecting last year’s robust output, while Chinese offers show minor upticks. However, the broader pulse market’s subdued demand, especially with pigeon pea (tur) under pressure in India, signals slow spot market momentum and thin trading volume.

This comes even as sowing in India has expanded, partly offsetting local weather disruptions “in pockets” with an underlying expectation of stable yields elsewhere. Yet, as India remains the world’s largest lentil importer, ongoing logistical challenges in Myanmar and East Africa introduce the risk of sudden volatility—a risk underscored by importers’ caution as they manage uncertain global inventories. For buyers and sellers alike, the message is clear: stay nimble, track pulses markets closely, and account for short-term weather realities extracting a premium, especially on premium organic and specialty grades.

📈 Prices: Latest Lentil Market Levels

Type	Origin	Location	Purity/Organic	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Small Green	CN	Beijing	Organic, 99.5%	1.32	1.31	+0.01	2025-08-20	Firm, gradual rise
Small Green	CN	Beijing	Conv., 99.5%	1.24	1.23	+0.01	2025-08-20	Firm, gradual rise
Red Football	CA	Ottawa	Conv.	2.48	2.48	0.00	2025-08-14	Stable
Laird Green	CA	Ottawa	Conv.	1.66	1.66	0.00	2025-08-14	Steady
Eston Green	CA	Ottawa	Conv.	1.53	1.53	0.00	2025-08-14	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• India’s expanded acreage and current season outlook signal supply stability, but excess rainfall has caused local losses—overall production for tur and lentils remains near trend if weather normalizes.
• Importers (especially India) are alert to disruptions: Myanmar’s shipments (including lentils) face ongoing restrictions; African supply is hampered by logistics.
• Global demand remains tepid, with Indian markets still reflecting weak trade for pigeon pea and similar pulses.

📊 Key Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA and Indian Ministry estimates: India expected to produce around 3.5 million tons of tur in 2025, with lentils continuing above 1.1–1.2 million tons if weather holds.
• Stocks in Canada—the world’s largest lentil exporter—remain solid after a normalized 2024/25 harvest, but tightness in specialty types persists.
• Speculators remain largely on the sidelines as price action lacks clear directional cues.
• The last vector report similarly noted Indian import dependency and global weather risk; the 2024/25 trend of cautious buying and stable prices continues.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Regions

• Canada: Prairie weather has remained less volatile than prior years, with timely rains supporting finishing and harvest. Any late heat expected to trim yields marginally, but no severe loss forecast.
• India: Excessive monsoon rainfall in central states (Maharashtra, MP, Karnataka) may trim yields locally but is not widespread; monsoon retreat due in early September to favor late sowing and harvest work.
• Australia: Mild winter-to-spring conditions point to normal lentil crop progression; some risk of rainfall deficit in southern grainbelt regions.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison Table

Country	2023/24 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Forecast (Mt)	Estimated Ending Stocks (Mt)
India	1.16	1.21	0.12
Canada	2.29	2.32	0.47
Australia	0.38	0.40	0.07
Turkey	0.28	0.28	0.03

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Procurement: Maintain minimum cover, especially for organic grades—stable prices favor slow, methodical buying.
• Producers: Lock in new-crop offers if local production risk (weather) is rising; monitor Indian demand for export triggers.
• Watch for: Indian import policy updates, logistical news from Myanmar/Africa, and North American harvest progress.
• Speculative positions: Stay light until clear directional signals emerge; volatility could rise if weather disrupts Indian or Canadian harvests.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast
CN	Small Green (Organic)	1.32	1.32 – 1.34
CN	Small Green (Conv.)	1.24	1.24 – 1.25
CA	Red Football	2.48	2.48 – 2.50