The world wheat market remains under pressure to accelerate harvesting in the major exporting countries where good yields are being recorded. The favourable weather forecast for the next two weeks will allow the harvest to be completed. Wheat quotations on world exchanges have fallen for 5 consecutive days and are down 8.5-13.5% in a week.
Yesterday, September futures fell:
- by 2.1% to $230.4/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-13.5% for the week)
- by 2.6% to $282/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-12.9%)
- by 1.8% to $306.3/t – for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis 9-8.5%)
- by 0.8% to €232/t or $254.1/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-8.4%)
At the same time, Black Sea wheat in Chicago rose by 0.2% to $241.25/t (0%).
The intensity of rainfall in the EU and Ukraine is forecast to decrease over the next two weeks, allowing the harvest to be accelerated.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) raised its forecast for grain and oilseed production in Ukraine in FY 2023/24 by 7.8 million tonnes to 76.8 million tonnes (73.8 million tonnes in FY 2022/3), especially wheat – from 17.9 to 20.2 million tonnes, although the USDA estimates the wheat harvest at 17.5 million tonnes. Taking into account the season’s transitional stocks of 4.3 million tonnes, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture estimates wheat exports in 2023/24 at 15 million tonnes (USDA – at 17.5 million tonnes).
Prices were also not supported by the increase in export sales of wheat from the USA for the period 21-27 July by 20% compared with the previous week to 421,000 tonnes, bringing the total for the season to 5.84 million tonnes, which corresponds to last year’s pace.
Precipitation in the northern and southern plains of the US, the eastern Russian Federation and the Canadian prairies will continue to improve the condition of the spring wheat crop in the coming days, putting further pressure on prices.
Source: Graintrade