📜 Wheat Futures Continue to Rebound – U.S. Acreage Surprise and French Demand Support Market 📜

Wheat futures extended their recovery on Tuesday, with markets responding to lower-than-expected U.S. acreage and signs of increased French export demand. Despite export headwinds in the EU, tight U.S. plantings and a weaker euro-supported sentiment, helping the market bounce off recent lows.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025	€221.50/t	+€1.25	+0.57%
CBOT May 2025	540.50 ct/bu (€183.80/t)	+3.50 ct	+0.65%

📌 Euronext followed CBOT higher, buoyed by export optimism and tighter U.S. acreage.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 U.S. Wheat Acreage Estimates Remain Supportive

📊 Traders continued to digest the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, which showed:

• 2025 total wheat area at 45.35 million acres (2nd lowest since 1919)
• Winter wheat: 33.3 million acres, down 2% from the February Outlook Forum
• Spring wheat: 10.02 million acres, down 6% YoY
• Durum: 2.02 million acres, down 2% YoY

📌 Smaller acreage raised concerns about future production and support prices, especially in spring wheat (Minneapolis).

🔹 📦 USDA Export Inspections Highlight Solid YoY Gains

📊 For the week ending March 27:

• 435,644 tons shipped, down 10.2% from the previous week
• Still +16.4% above the same point last year
• Mexico (76,142 t) and South Korea (67,470 t) were key destinations

📌 Seasonal pace remains healthy despite week-to-week fluctuations.

🔹 📉 EU Export Pace Still Disappointing

📊 As of March 30:

• EU soft wheat exports: 16.68 million t (–36% YoY)
• Weekly increase: +220,000 t
• Germany: 1.89 million t (+50,000 t WoW)
• Imports down 12% YoY to 6.31 million t

📌 Despite some growth, the EU export pace remains far below historical norms.

🔹 📈 French Wheat Regains Competitiveness

📊 Support came from expectations of sales to Morocco and Egypt

• French FOB prices are now competitive vs. Black Sea offers
• A weaker euro added to export attractiveness

📌 The current low-price environment may finally be stimulating new demand.

🔹 🌧️ Weather Conditions Mixed Across Europe

📊 Dry weather across much of the EU is becoming a concern:

• March was drier than average from France to the Baltics
• Forecasts show continued dryness through April 9
• Warmer temps could lead to early-season drought stress
• Southeast Europe (Balkans) received abundant rainfall

📌 Spring weather will be key to determining yield potential across the EU.

🔹 📉 Russia 2025/26 Crop Outlook Revised Down

📊 Argus Media cut its Russian wheat production forecast to 80.3 million tons (from 81.5)

• Lower spring wheat area offsets improved winter wheat conditions
• Russian farmers are switching to oilseeds and pulses

📌 Tightening supply projections from Russia could provide mid-term support.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 3–5, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Range
Euronext May 2025	€220 – €224/t
CBOT May 2025	537 – 545 ct/bu (€183 – €186/t)

📌 Volatility may persist as traders balance export softness in the EU with tighter U.S. acreage.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA – Plains (Winter & Spring Wheat)

📍 Current: Moisture improving in spring wheat zones
📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Light rain expected across dry areas
• 🌡️ Mild temperatures favorable for planting

🇪🇺 EU – From France to the Baltics

📍 Current: Soil dryness is a growing concern
📆 Outlook:

• 🌡️ Temperatures rising
• 🌧️ Very little rain expected through April 9

📌 Moisture deficits could reintroduce a risk premium if conditions persist.

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📉 5. Export & Production Trends – Weekly Highlights

📍 Region	📦 Weekly Export Change	📉 YoY Comparison
EU Soft Wheat	+220,000 t	–36% YoY
Germany	+50,000 t (1.89 Mt total)	–

📍 USDA Wheat Plantings 2025	📊 Acreage (Mio ac)	📉 vs. 2024
Total Wheat	45.35	–2%
Winter Wheat	33.30	–1%
Spring Wheat	10.02	–6%
Durum	2.02	–2%

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways: ✅ U.S. planting intentions below expectations provided short-term price support
✅ French wheat becoming more competitive – demand may rise
✅ EU export data remains weak, capping rallies
✅ Dryness across much of Europe could affect winter crop development

📌 Recommendations: 🔹 Producers: Watch for demand-led rebounds to lock in old crop prices
🔹 Buyers: Take advantage of current price levels for nearby needs
🔹 Traders: Position for weather volatility and monitor weekly crop ratings from USDA (resuming Monday)

📍 Wheat markets are still fragile – any weather or export shift could spark sharp moves in April.