📜 Wheat Futures Firm Up – U.S. Gains Offset Euro Strength in Euronext Trade 📜

Wheat futures ended the week on a firmer note, supported by strength in U.S. markets. While a stronger euro limited Euronext gains, tight global supply expectations and a rebound in fund positioning helped prices recover from recent lows.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 Weekly Change
Euronext Sep 2025	€214.75/t	+€1.75	–€2.75 (–1.3%)
CBOT May 2025	555.75 ct/bu (€180/t)	+17.75 ct	+26.75 ct (+5.1%)

📌 Gains on Friday trimmed the week’s losses in Paris and extended the rebound in Chicago.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📈 U.S. Futures Pull Euronext Higher

📊 Paris wheat followed Chicago’s rally:

• Euronext gained on strong U.S. momentum
• A stronger euro capped further upside, with EUR/USD at 1.1346, up 2.6% WoW (a 3-year high)

📌 The euro’s rise has undermined EU export competitiveness and could limit gains this week.

🔹 📉 Currency Markets in Focus

📊 Investors are fleeing the dollar due to uncertainty over U.S. trade policy:

• The euro broke key resistance levels, with analysts projecting 1.20 USD possible within 3–4 months

📌 Stronger euro = weaker European wheat on export markets.

🔹 📈 Crop Ratings Slip in France

📊 FranceAgriMer reported:

• 75% of soft wheat rated good/excellent, down 1 pp WoW
• Still +11 pp vs. last year, but below the long-term average

📌 Crop conditions are decent but not strong enough to spark selling.

🔹 🌧️ Rain Outlook Mixed Across Europe

📊 Forecasts suggest:

• End to Europe’s long dry spell, but showers may be uneven
• Persistent dryness in Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Benelux, Baltics
• The Balkans saw abundant rainfall

📌 Uncertainty remains about how much relief rainfall will bring to drought-affected areas.

🔹 📈 CBOT Boosted by Technicals & Fund Positioning

📊 In the U.S.:

• Wheat rose despite a lacklustre WASDE report
• Drought concerns remain in the southern Plains
• CFTC data (Apr 8):
  • Chicago net short reduced by 9,908 contracts to 102,132
  • Kansas net short increased by 4,159 to 49,834

📌 Funds remain short but are cautiously reducing exposure amid tight global stocks.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 15–17, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Range
Euronext Sep 2025	€212 – €217/t
CBOT May 2025	550 – 560 ct/bu (€179 – €182/t)

📌 Currency pressure could limit Euronext gains, but weather and positioning may support CBOT.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇪🇺 EU – Central & Northern Europe

📍 Current: Soil conditions remain dry
📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Rain is forecasted, but coverage uneven
• 🌡️ Warmer temperatures increase evapotranspiration risk

🇺🇸 USA – Great Plains

📍 Current: Drought in parts of southern Plains
📆 Outlook:

• 🌡️ Mild temperatures aid development
• 🌧️ Rain is possible, but unlikely to resolve deficits fully

📌 Weather will remain a decisive factor in spring market direction.

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📉 5. Market Data Highlights – CFTC Report

📍 Market	📊 Net Short (Apr 8)	🔄 Weekly Change
CBOT Wheat	102,132 contracts	–9,908
KC Wheat	49,834 contracts	+4,159

📌 Funds remain heavily short, leaving room for rallies on adverse weather or technical breaks.

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways: ✅ U.S. futures led a global rebound – helped by technical buying
✅ The euro’s strength is a headwind for EU exports
✅ Crop conditions in France weakened slightly – dryness remains a concern
✅ Funds reducing shorts = price floor building

📌 Recommendations: 🔹 Producers: Consider hedging new crops if weather rallies emerge
🔹 Buyers: Monitor France for competitive pricing as the euro weighs on export potential
🔹 Traders: Prepare for volatility driven by weather and macro flows

📍 Weather risks and fund positioning will drive wheat markets as April progresses.

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✔ This report follows the standardized format for commodity market reports. 🚜