Wheat Futures Pressured by Weather and Weak Demand – CBoT Hits New Lows

Wheat markets remained under pressure at the end of the week. Despite minor gains in Paris, the broader trend remains bearish. Improved crop conditions, weak global demand, and large short positions continue to weigh on sentiment, even as investors position themselves ahead of key USDA reports.

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1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

Contract	Closing Price	Change	Weekly Change
Euronext May 2025	€218.75/t	+€0.50	–€7.50 (–3.3%)
CBOT May 2025	528.25 ct/bu (€179/t)	–3.75 ct	–30 ct (–5.4%)

Wheat futures closed near multi-month lows as rainfall in key growing regions and low export activity weighed on prices.

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2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

Weather Conditions Pressure Prices

Rainfall in key wheat regions of the U.S. and Russia along with favorable EU conditions have reduced weather risk premiums:

• U.S. Plains, Russia, and parts of Eastern Europe report improved soil moisture
• Short-covering has yet to materialize, keeping the market biased lower

Traders see little urgency amid improving crop outlooks.

France: Crop Conditions Stable but Below Average

As of March 24, 74% of French soft wheat rated good/excellent, unchanged WoW

• Higher than 66% last year, but still below the multi-year average
• Durum wheat ratings slightly down from 81% to 80%

Stability in French crop conditions limits upside potential.

Russian Wheat Prices Rise Slightly

Russian wheat (11.5% protein, April/May delivery):

• Up $2 to $244–247/t FOB
• French wheat is $4–6/t cheaper, while Ukrainian, Romanian, and Bulgarian wheat trades $3–5/t below Russian prices

Black Sea competition remains fierce, limiting European export gains.

Fund Positioning Still Bearish

CFTC data (as of March 25):

• Net short in CBOT wheat rose by 11,919 contracts to 92,587 contracts
• Kansas City short reduced by 1,213 contracts to 45,450 contracts

Large speculative short positions increase the risk of sharp rebounds on adverse news.

USDA Reports in Focus

Traders await USDA’s quarterly grain stocks and 2025 planting intentions (due March 31):

• Grain stocks expected around 1.221 billion bu (range: 1.169–1.26)
• Last year’s March figure: 1.098 billion bu
• Wheat acreage forecast: 46.475 million acres (range: 45.4–47.815);
  analysts expect more winter wheat, less spring wheat and durum

These reports could redefine price direction heading into Q2.

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3. Price Forecast (April 1–3, 2025)

Contract	Expected Price Range
Euronext May 2025	€217 – €221/t
CBOT May 2025	525 – 535 ct/bu (€177 – €181/t)

Unless export activity improves or weather concerns resurface, downside pressure may persist into early April.

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4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

USA – Kansas, Oklahoma, Great Plains

Current: Soil moisture improved, planting outlook firming
Forecast:

• Mild temperatures, moderate rainfall
• Continued moisture likely to support crop growth

Russia & Ukraine – Black Sea Region

Current: Rain in southern Russia, improving planting conditions
Forecast:

• No frost risks, continued mild weather
• Moderate rainfall to aid crop development

Weather conditions continue to favor wheat growth – bearish for prices.

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5. Long-Term Market Data: Fund Positioning & Export Trends

Fund Positioning – CFTC (Week Ending March 25)

Market	Net Short Position	Weekly Change
CBOT Wheat	92,587 contracts	+11,919
KC Wheat	45,450 contracts	–1,213

Global Wheat Export Overview

Region	Export Price (USD/t FOB)	Discount vs. Russia
Russia	244–247	–
France	~240–243	–$4 to –$6
Ukraine/Bulgaria/Romania	~239–242	–$3 to –$5

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6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

Key Takeaways:
Weaker demand and improved weather continue to pressure wheat prices
CBOT and Euronext hit multi-month lows
French and Black Sea wheat remains competitively priced
Speculative short positions remain large – the risk of short squeezes if weather shifts

Strategic Recommendations:
Producers: Avoid panic selling; consider covering old crops on weather rallies
Buyers: Take advantage of dips, especially from non-Russian Black Sea origins
Traders: Positioning ahead of USDA data will be key – volatility expected

All eyes are now on USDA’s March 31 reports and further developments in Black Sea trade logistics.