📜 Wheat Futures Pressured by Weather and Weak Demand – CBoT Hits New Lows 📜

Wheat markets remained under pressure at the end of the week. Despite minor gains in Paris, the broader trend remains bearish. Improved crop conditions, weak global demand, and large short positions continue to weigh on sentiment, even as investors position themselves ahead of key USDA reports.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 Weekly Change
Euronext May 2025	€218.75/t	+€0.50	–€7.50 (–3.3%)
CBOT May 2025	528.25 ct/bu (€179/t)	–3.75 ct	–30 ct (–5.4%)

📌 Wheat futures closed near multi-month lows as rainfall in key growing regions and low export activity weighed on prices.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 Weather Conditions Pressure Prices

📊 Rainfall in key wheat regions of the U.S. and Russia along with favorable EU conditions have reduced weather risk premiums:

• U.S. Plains, Russia, and parts of Eastern Europe report improved soil moisture
• Short-covering has yet to materialize, keeping the market biased lower

📌 Traders see little urgency amid improving crop outlooks.

🔹 📈 France: Crop Conditions Stable but Below Average

📊 As of March 24, 74% of French soft wheat rated good/excellent, unchanged WoW

• Higher than 66% last year, but still below the multi-year average
• Durum wheat ratings slightly down from 81% to 80%

📌 Stability in French crop conditions limits upside potential.

🔹 📉 Russian Wheat Prices Rise Slightly

📊 Russian wheat (11.5% protein, April/May delivery):

• Up $2 to $244–247/t FOB
• French wheat is $4–6/t cheaper, while Ukrainian, Romanian, and Bulgarian wheat trades $3–5/t below Russian prices

📌 Black Sea competition remains fierce, limiting European export gains.

🔹 📉 Fund Positioning Still Bearish

📊 CFTC data (as of March 25):

• Net short in CBOT wheat rose by 11,919 contracts to 92,587 contracts
• Kansas City short reduced by 1,213 contracts to 45,450 contracts

📌 Large speculative short positions increase the risk of sharp rebounds on adverse news.

🔹 📊 USDA Reports in Focus

📊 Traders await USDA’s quarterly grain stocks and 2025 planting intentions (due March 31):

• Grain stocks expected around 1.221 billion bu (range: 1.169–1.26)
• Last year’s March figure: 1.098 billion bu
• Wheat acreage forecast: 46.475 million acres (range: 45.4–47.815);
  analysts expect more winter wheat, less spring wheat and durum

📌 These reports could redefine price direction heading into Q2.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 1–3, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Price Range
Euronext May 2025	€217 – €221/t
CBOT May 2025	525 – 535 ct/bu (€177 – €181/t)

📌 Unless export activity improves or weather concerns resurface, downside pressure may persist into early April.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA – Kansas, Oklahoma, Great Plains

📍 Current: Soil moisture improved, planting outlook firming
📆 Forecast:

• 🌡️ Mild temperatures, moderate rainfall
• 🌧️ Continued moisture likely to support crop growth

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine – Black Sea Region

📍 Current: Rain in southern Russia, improving planting conditions
📆 Forecast:

• 🌡️ No frost risks, continued mild weather
• 🌧️ Moderate rainfall to aid crop development

📌 Weather conditions continue to favor wheat growth – bearish for prices.

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📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Fund Positioning & Export Trends

📉 Fund Positioning – CFTC (Week Ending March 25)

📍 Market	📉 Net Short Position	📊 Weekly Change
CBOT Wheat	92,587 contracts	+11,919
KC Wheat	45,450 contracts	–1,213

📊 Global Wheat Export Overview

🌍 Region	📅 Export Price (USD/t FOB)	📉 Discount vs. Russia
Russia	244–247	–
France	~240–243	–$4 to –$6
Ukraine/Bulgaria/Romania	~239–242	–$3 to –$5

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Weaker demand and improved weather continue to pressure wheat prices
✅ CBOT and Euronext hit multi-month lows
✅ French and Black Sea wheat remains competitively priced
✅ Speculative short positions remain large – the risk of short squeezes if weather shifts

📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Avoid panic selling; consider covering old crops on weather rallies
🔹 Buyers: Take advantage of dips, especially from non-Russian Black Sea origins
🔹 Traders: Positioning ahead of USDA data will be key – volatility expected

📍 All eyes are now on USDA’s March 31 reports and further developments in Black Sea trade logistics.