📜 Wheat Futures Remain Under Pressure – Weather Outlook and Global Competition Weigh on Market 📜

Wheat futures eased midweek as contract-near prices on the Euronext held steady while longer-dated contracts slipped to multi-year lows. U.S. prices dropped more sharply, weighed down by improving weather forecasts in key global growing regions and lacklustre export momentum.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025	€208.75/t	+€0.25	+0.12%
Euronext Sep 2025	€207.50/t	–€0.75	–0.36%
CBOT Jul 2025	543.50 ct/bu (€176/t)	–6.75 ct	–1.23%

📌 Euronext held relatively stable, while CBOT wheat faced steeper declines.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 🌦️ Wetter Outlook Improves for Key Regions

📊 Traders reacted to:

• Forecasted rainfall across the U.S. Plains
• Better soil moisture in the Black Sea region
• Improved growing conditions in Western & Central Europe
• Continued dryness in Northern Germany, Poland, and Southern Scandinavia

📌 Favourable weather continues to suppress risk premiums in global wheat markets.

🔹 📉 EU Exports Still Face Headwinds

📊 Key challenges:

• Jordan’s wheat tender for 120,000 t is likely to favour Black Sea origins
• Ongoing diplomatic tensions between France and Algeria
• Improved Moroccan crop outlook further dampens demand for French wheat

📌 Low Euronext prices could help attract interest from West Africa, but global competition remains fierce.

🔹 📊 Global Competition Intensifies

📊 Export price comparisons:

• 🇺🇦 Ukrainian wheat (11.5% protein): $239–242/t (≈€211–214/t)
• 🇺🇸 U.S. SRW (Gulf): $228–232/t (≈€201–205/t)
• 🇪🇺 French wheat: trading slightly higher

📌 European wheat remains overpriced relative to global benchmarks.

🔹 📉 Funds Increase Short Positions on Euronext

📊 According to Euronext data (as of April 18):

• Net short positions in wheat futures/options rose from 203,107 to 212,759 contracts

📌 Speculators continue to bet on falling prices amid ample supply and weak demand.

🔹 📦 USDA Weekly Export Sales Expected Today

📊 Market expects:

• Old-crop wheat sales (2023/24): 150,000–200,000 t
• New-crop (2024/25): 100,000–300,000 t

📌 US export figures may help shape sentiment heading into next week.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 25–27, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Range
Euronext Sep 2025	€206 – €210/t
CBOT Jul 2025	540 – 550 ct/bu (€175 – €179/t)

📌 Unless export sales surprise, downward pressure may continue into the weekend.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Regions

🇺🇸 USA – Plains

📍 Current: Improved outlook
📆 Forecast:

• 🌧️ Scattered showers across the wheat belt
• 🌡️ Seasonally warm temperatures

🇺🇦 Ukraine / 🇷🇺 Russia – Black Sea Region

📍 Current: Soil conditions improving
📆 Forecast:

• 🌧️ Widespread rain is expected in the southern growing zones
• 🌡️ Mild conditions aid crop development

🇪🇺 Europe – Germany, Poland, Baltic

📍 Current: Dryness persists in northern zones
📆 Forecast:

• 🌧️ Patchy rain, insufficient to fully recharge soils
• 🌡️ Risk of yield losses increasing in drier regions

📌 Wheat market remains weather-sensitive – improving conditions could suppress further rallies.

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📉 5. Market Data Highlights – Fund & Export Positions

📍 Region	📊 Position/Volume	📉 Weekly Change
Euronext Wheat	212,759 net short contracts	+9,652
U.S. Wheat Exports (expected)	150,000–200,000 t (old) / 100,000–300,000 t (new)	–

🌍 Export Prices (FOB)	USD/t	EUR/t
🇺🇸 U.S. SRW (Gulf)	228–232	201–205
🇺🇦 Ukrainian (11.5%)	239–242	211–214
🇪🇺 French (est.)	~€215–220	–

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Weather improvements continue to drive prices lower
✅ Euronext wheat hits multi-year lows despite slight front-month gain
✅ EU export potential hurt by diplomatic tensions and Moroccan production
✅ Funds increased short exposure on Euronext, capping rebound potential

📌 Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Hold off on selling unless demand emerges; monitor rain in drier EU regions
🔹 Buyers: Take advantage of low prices for forward bookings, especially if euro weakens
🔹 Traders: Expect choppy trade until new demand or weather stress returns

📍 Pressure may persist through the end of April unless USDA exports or weather shocks shift sentiment.