Wheat Futures Stabilize Further – EU Export Momentum and U.S. Weather in Focus

Wheat futures extended their rebound on Tuesday. Stronger prices for the 2025 crop, improving EU exports, and lingering U.S. weather concerns continued to support the market. Despite macro uncertainty and trade tensions, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.

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1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

Contract	Closing Price	Change	% Change
Euronext May 2025	€224.75/t	0.00	0.00%
CBOT May 2025	540.00 ct/bu (€182.50/t)	+3.50 ct	+0.65%

New-crop contracts gained further, while nearby maturities stabilized.

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2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

Export Activity Picks Up in the EU

European Commission data (as of April 6) shows:

• EU soft wheat exports: 16.36 million t (+680,000 t WoW)
• Year-on-year deficit remains at –34%
• Top exporters:
  • Romania: 4.54 million t
  • Lithuania: 2.28 million t
  • Germany: 2.00 million t (+110,000 t WoW)
  • Latvia: 1.93 million t
  • France: 1.79 million t
• Deliveries to Morocco surged by 196,000 t WoW

French wheat appears competitive again – Morocco and Egypt could resume buying.

Trade Tensions Fade into Background

Despite concerns over the U.S.–China trade dispute:

• The market largely ignored these risks on Tuesday
• The focus shifted to weather conditions and Thursday’s USDA WASDE report

Tensions remain, but their short-term impact on wheat prices is muted.

U.S. Weather Risks and Planting Progress

Key U.S. concerns:

• Southern Plains remain dry, but rainfall has been sporadic
• USDA Crop Progress (Apr 1):
  • Winter wheat: 48% good/excellent
  • Spring wheat planting: 3% complete, in line with average
• Traders await updated ratings next Monday

Conditions are slightly better than feared but remain uncertain.

Fund Positioning Limits Further Losses

Funds remain heavily short in wheat futures:

• Large short positions have capped further declines
• Unwillingness to add to bearish bets supports recent bounce

Any negative surprises in weather or USDA data could trigger short-covering rallies.

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3. Price Forecast (April 10–12, 2025)

Contract	Expected Range
Euronext May 2025	€223 – €227/t
CBOT May 2025	537 – 545 ct/bu (€182 – €184/t)

Markets await Thursday’s WASDE report – risk of volatility on unexpected changes.

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4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

USA – Plains & Midwest

Current: Mixed conditions
Outlook:

• Rain possible in central and northern Plains
• Ohio and Mississippi Valley flood recovery ongoing
• Warmer temperatures aid crop development

EU – France, Germany, Baltics

Current: Soil conditions remain dry
Outlook:

• No significant rainfall through April 9
• Rising temperatures could add stress to winter crops

Weather will remain a key factor through the spring growing season.

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5. Export & Market Highlights

Region	Weekly Export Growth	Seasonal Total
EU (All)	+680,000 t	16.36 million t (–34% YoY)
Germany	+110,000 t	2.00 million t
Morocco (import)	+196,000 t	–

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6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

Key Takeaways:
Prices remain firm as traders position ahead of the WASDE
EU exports are gaining momentum, led by Morocco and Germany
Weather remains a wildcard in both the EU and the U.S.
Funds are still net short – limited downside unless crop outlook improves

Recommendations:
Producers: Consider early new-crop sales if prices firm further
Buyers: Evaluate French origins for competitive values
Traders: Stay nimble – short covering possible on whether or WASDE surprises

Thursday’s WASDE and spring weather will shape the next major move in wheat markets.