📜 Wheat Futures Stabilize Further – EU Export Momentum and U.S. Weather in Focus 📜

Wheat futures extended their rebound on Tuesday. Stronger prices for the 2025 crop, improving EU exports, and lingering U.S. weather concerns continued to support the market. Despite macro uncertainty and trade tensions, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025	€224.75/t	0.00	0.00%
CBOT May 2025	540.00 ct/bu (€182.50/t)	+3.50 ct	+0.65%

📌 New-crop contracts gained further, while nearby maturities stabilized.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📈 Export Activity Picks Up in the EU

📊 European Commission data (as of April 6) shows:

• EU soft wheat exports: 16.36 million t (+680,000 t WoW)
• Year-on-year deficit remains at –34%
• Top exporters:
  • 🇷🇴 Romania: 4.54 million t
  • 🇱🇹 Lithuania: 2.28 million t
  • 🇩🇪 Germany: 2.00 million t (+110,000 t WoW)
  • 🇱🇻 Latvia: 1.93 million t
  • 🇫🇷 France: 1.79 million t
• Deliveries to Morocco surged by 196,000 t WoW

📌 French wheat appears competitive again – Morocco and Egypt could resume buying.

🔹 📉 Trade Tensions Fade into Background

📊 Despite concerns over the U.S.–China trade dispute:

• The market largely ignored these risks on Tuesday
• The focus shifted to weather conditions and Thursday’s USDA WASDE report

📌 Tensions remain, but their short-term impact on wheat prices is muted.

🔹 📈 U.S. Weather Risks and Planting Progress

📊 Key U.S. concerns:

• Southern Plains remain dry, but rainfall has been sporadic
• USDA Crop Progress (Apr 1):
  • Winter wheat: 48% good/excellent
  • Spring wheat planting: 3% complete, in line with average
• Traders await updated ratings next Monday

📌 Conditions are slightly better than feared but remain uncertain.

🔹 📈 Fund Positioning Limits Further Losses

📊 Funds remain heavily short in wheat futures:

• Large short positions have capped further declines
• Unwillingness to add to bearish bets supports recent bounce

📌 Any negative surprises in weather or USDA data could trigger short-covering rallies.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 10–12, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Range
Euronext May 2025	€223 – €227/t
CBOT May 2025	537 – 545 ct/bu (€182 – €184/t)

📌 Markets await Thursday’s WASDE report – risk of volatility on unexpected changes.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA – Plains & Midwest

📍 Current: Mixed conditions
📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Rain possible in central and northern Plains
• 🌊 Ohio and Mississippi Valley flood recovery ongoing
• 🌡️ Warmer temperatures aid crop development

🇪🇺 EU – France, Germany, Baltics

📍 Current: Soil conditions remain dry
📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ No significant rainfall through April 9
• 🌡️ Rising temperatures could add stress to winter crops

📌 Weather will remain a key factor through the spring growing season.

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📉 5. Export & Market Highlights

📍 Region	📦 Weekly Export Growth	📊 Seasonal Total
EU (All)	+680,000 t	16.36 million t (–34% YoY)
Germany	+110,000 t	2.00 million t
Morocco (import)	+196,000 t	–

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Prices remain firm as traders position ahead of the WASDE
✅ EU exports are gaining momentum, led by Morocco and Germany
✅ Weather remains a wildcard in both the EU and the U.S.
✅ Funds are still net short – limited downside unless crop outlook improves

📌 Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Consider early new-crop sales if prices firm further
🔹 Buyers: Evaluate French origins for competitive values
🔹 Traders: Stay nimble – short covering possible on whether or WASDE surprises

📍 Thursday’s WASDE and spring weather will shape the next major move in wheat markets.