📜 Wheat Futures Steady – Weaker Euro Supports Euronext, Weather Keeps Pressure on Outlook 📜

Wheat futures closed higher on Friday for most contracts, supported by a weaker euro and technical buying, while favourable weather conditions and weak global demand continued to cap upside momentum. Despite limited fundamental drivers, the U.S. market closed mixed, with gains across most maturities.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 Weekly Change
Euronext Sep 2025	€209.75/t	+€1.75	–€2.75 (–1.3%)
CBOT Jul 2025	545.00 ct/bu (€176/t)	+0.50 ct	–17.5 ct (–3.1%)

📌 Weaker euro supported Euronext; CBOT stabilised after weather-driven selling earlier in the week.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 Weather Conditions Improve Globally

📊 Key weather factors:

• Rainfall alleviated dryness in Central and Northern Europe
• Moisture improved across parts of the U.S. southern Plains and southern Russia
• Dry pockets persist in the Baltic region and northern Germany

📌 Better weather continues to limit price recovery.

🔹 📈 Technical Buying and Export Hopes in France

📊 Rumours circulated that:

• At least one vessel of French wheat was sold to Egypt for May delivery
• No official confirmation yet; past rumours have proven unreliable

📌 Hopes of revived demand helped support Paris futures.

🔹 📉 Slight Deterioration in French Crop Conditions

📊 FranceAgriMer update:

• 74% of soft wheat rated good/excellent, vs. 75% last week
• Still significantly better than 63% a year ago

📌 Rainfall over the past weekend offers hope for stabilisation.

🔹 📉 Middle East Demand Uncertainty

📊 In Syria:

• 100,000 t wheat tender ended without purchase
• Iraq reportedly donating 220,000 tons of wheat to Syria, possibly cancelling Syrian buying plans

📌 Political developments continue to complicate the Middle East demand outlook.

🔹 📉 India-Pakistan Water Tensions

📊 India suspended the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, raising:

• Long-term concerns for Pakistani agriculture
• No immediate impact on wheat exports, as Pakistan remains largely self-sufficient (30 Mt annually)

📌 Geopolitical risks may grow over time, but are not yet affecting global flows.

🔹 📊 Fund Positioning

📊 CFTC Report (week ending April 22):

• CBOT wheat net shorts reduced by 6,510 contracts to 89,929
• Kansas City wheat net shorts increased by 9,252 contracts to 56,624

📌 Funds reduced short exposure in CBOT wheat – slightly supportive for price action.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 29–May 1, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Range
Euronext Sep 2025	€207 – €211/t
CBOT Jul 2025	543 – 552 ct/bu (€175 – €178/t)

📌 The market may remain range-bound with modest recovery potential if export rumours are confirmed.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇪🇺 Europe – Central and Northern Europe

📍 Current: Improved soil moisture 📆 Forecast:

• 🌧️ More showers expected
• 🌡️ Temperatures are seasonally normal to slightly above average

🇺🇸 USA – Plains and Midwest

📍 Current: Improved soil conditions 📆 Forecast:

• 🌧️ Further rainfall is expected across the southern Plains
• 🌡️ Moderate temperatures are supportive of crop progress

📌 Weather improvements continue to cap rally potential in wheat markets.

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📉 5. Market Data Highlights

📍 Region	📉 Net Short Position	🔄 Weekly Change
CBOT Wheat	89,929 contracts	–6,510
KC Wheat	56,624 contracts	+9,252

🌍 FOB Export Prices (USD/t)	Current
U.S. SRW (Gulf)	228–232	(€201–205)
Ukrainian Wheat (11.5%)	239–242	(€211–214)

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Euronext wheat recovered slightly on technical buying and export hopes
✅ Favourable weather in major growing regions continues to pressure prices
✅ EU wheat remains overpriced relative to Black Sea origins
✅ Fund liquidation pace has slowed, stabilising markets somewhat

📌 Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Monitor price recovery; consider early forward sales if export demand confirms
🔹 Buyers: Take advantage of dips, especially in Black Sea origins
🔹 Traders: Positioning cautiously ahead of further weather developments and official export data releases

📍 Wheat markets remain in a fragile balance between technical support and fundamental weakness.