Wheat in Focus: Navigating Lower Canadian Yields, Global Dynamics & Price Stability

The global wheat market presents a complex picture as we transition into the tail end of 2025. Canadian wheat production forecasts are projecting a modest 1.1% year-on-year decline to 35.5 million tons, reflecting a critical shift in North America’s supply dynamic amid steady output growth in competing grains like corn and canola. While this reduction may appear limited, its roots in declining yields and shifting acreage underscore how weather and agronomic trends are increasingly driving market fundamentals. Offsetting Canada’s softer tone are competitive supplies from the Black Sea region and France, where stable to slightly higher yields are reported. However, with wheat still at the heart of Canada’s agricultural output and a bellwether for global supply, any disruptions or surprises in final yields could have outsized effects on world prices.

From a pricing standpoint, wheat at key exchanges remains steady, reflecting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach as market participants digest both the Canadian situation and strong global inventory levels. Demand from importing nations in North Africa and Asia is expected to hold firm, yet speculative positioning and weather forecasts—especially for the U.S. Plains, European grain belt, and Black Sea region—are shaping sentiment and could spur short-term volatility. With regional harvests progressing, all eyes are on the interplay between North American weather patterns and export developments elsewhere to determine if current prices can find support or drift lower in the coming weeks.

📈 Latest Wheat Prices

Origin	Location	Type	Protein	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US	Washington D.C.	CBOT	min. 11.50%	FOB	0.23	0.00	Steady
FR	Paris	–	min. 11.00%	FOB	0.29	0.00	Stable
UA	Odesa	–	min. 11.00%	FOB	0.20	0.00	Neutral
UA	Odesa	–	min. 10.50%	FOB	0.21	0.00	Neutral
UA	Kyiv	–	min. 11.50%	FCA	0.24	0.00	Stable
UA	Odesa	–	min. 11.50%	FCA	0.25	-0.01	Slightly Bearish
UA	Odesa	–	min. 9.50%	FCA	0.24	0.00	Stable
UA	Kyiv	–	min. 9.50%	FCA	0.22	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Canada’s wheat output is forecast at 35.5 million tons, down 1.1%, pressured by weaker average yields (3.2 t/ha vs. 3.37 t/ha in 2024).
• Durum output set to drop 2% (6.2 million tons), spring wheat down 1.5% (26 million tons).
• Winter wheat offers some upside, rising 4.7% due to improved acreage/yields.
• Rising corn (+3.1%) and canola (+5.7%) output in Canada could shift export priorities.
• Global output remains balanced as strong Black Sea and European harvests offset North American declines.
• Import demand from MENA and Asia remains robust; little sign of structural demand drop.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA Reports: Neutral-to-slightly bearish with global inventories remaining above 5-year averages.
• Speculative Positioning: Mixed—funds are adjusting positions but lack strong directional conviction amid macro uncertainty.
• Country Comparison, Output 2025 (Mt):
  • Canada: 35.5 (↓)
  • Russia: ~89 (steady)
  • EU: ~133 (↑ slightly)
  • US: ~46 (steady)
  • Australia: ~32 (volatile, weather risk)
• Inventory Trends: Russia, EU, and US carry ample stocks, reducing supply shock risk.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Prospects

• Prairie provinces (Canada): Mild temperatures and adequate precipitation improving crop conditions late season, though early drought trimmed yield potential.
• Black Sea: Wetter-than-average summer benefiting crop fill, risk of lodging and disease increases.
• US Plains: Hot, variable rainfall patterns; some concern for late-planted wheat, but overall manageable.
• Western Europe: Favorable summer weather; soil moisture optimal, except pockets of dryness in Spain and southern France.

🏭 Global Production & Stock Snapshot

Country/Region	Production 2025 (Mt)	Y/Y Change	Stock Levels
Canada	35.5	-1.1%	Adequate
Russia	~89	0%	High
EU	133	+1%	Strong
US	46	0%	Ample
Australia	32	0%	Tight

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical buyers: Secure coverage for Q4 2025 but avoid panic; stable global inventories should limit price rallies.
• Exporters: Monitor Canadian and Australian weather closely; lower yields there could open windows for EU/Black Sea trades.
• Investors: Favor range-bound strategies; speculative long entries may be opportunistic only after weather-induced dips.
• End-users: Watch for short-term volatility tied to September weather updates and official government crop revisions.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (Next 3 Days)	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	0.23	0.22 – 0.24	Stable/Neutral
Euronext (Paris)	0.29	0.28 – 0.30	Stable/Balanced
Odesa (Black Sea)	0.20	0.19 – 0.21	Slightly Bearish