Wheat Market Analysis: Price Stability Amid Weather & Supply Uncertainty

The global wheat market finds itself in a phase of relative calm, with prices showing only modest movements across major futures exchanges. Euronext (MATIF) wheat contracts for September and December 2025 have registered no change over the past session, stabilising around EUR 209/t and EUR 220.25/t, respectively. Similarly, CBOT contracts have dipped slightly, indicating a cautious sentiment driven by expectations of ample inventory but persistent concerns about weather conditions affecting upcoming harvests in Europe and North America.

Meanwhile, physical FOB prices in key origin markets like the US, France, and Ukraine also reflect this equilibrium, with marginal price reductions in most locations. Ongoing adjustments in global crop forecasts, recent USDA WASDE data releases, and speculative activity continue to shape the market dynamics. Weather developments—especially in the US Midwest, Black Sea region, and Western Europe—remain at the forefront, with drought and heat stress risks impacting yield outlooks. Participants are now carefully watching final acreage reports and crop progress to discern whether the market’s modest softness can persist or whether renewed supply-side fears could spark volatility.

📈 Prices & Trends

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Sep 2025	209.00 EUR/t	0.00%	Stable / Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	Dec 2025	220.25 EUR/t	0.00%	Stable / Neutral
CBOT	Jul 2025	566.50 USc/bu	-1.35%	Weak / Bearish
CBOT	Sep 2025	582.75 USc/bu	-1.31%	Weak / Bearish
ICE UK	Jul 2025 (Feed)	163.30 GBP/t	0.0%	Stable / Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Highlights

• The latest USDA WASDE report points to a modest increase in global ending stocks for 2025/26, but reductions in the EU, Ukraine, and Canada are anticipated.
• Speculative positioning at CBOT indicates a mild net short, suggesting fund managers remain cautious amid mixed fundamentals.
• Weather is a pivotal driver: US winter wheat harvests are progressing, but concerns remain over spring wheat due to variable rainfall in the Northern Plains and Canada.
• EU and Black Sea output estimates are being revised downwards due to persistent dryness, especially in France and southern Russia.
• China and MENA remain steady importers, while India’s role is watched closely; government import policy signals will be crucial if domestic conditions deteriorate.

📊 Physical Market Fundamentals

Origin	Type/Protein	Delivery	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change
US, Washington D.C.	Protein min. 11.5% (CBOT)	FOB	0.23	0.24	-0.01
France, Paris	Protein min. 11.0%	FOB	0.27	0.28	-0.01
Ukraine, Odesa	Protein min. 11.0%	FOB	0.20	0.20	0.00
Ukraine, Odesa	Protein min. 10.5%	FOB	0.20	0.21	-0.01
Ukraine, Odesa	Protein min. 12.5%	FOB	0.21	0.21	0.00
Ukraine, Odesa	Protein min. 11.5%	FCA	0.25	0.26	-0.01
Ukraine, Kyiv	Protein min. 11.5%	FCA	0.24	0.25	-0.01
Ukraine, Kyiv	Protein min. 9.5%	FCA	0.23	0.23	0.00
Ukraine, Odesa	Protein min. 9.5%	FCA	0.24	0.24	0.00

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest/Plains: Showers forecast for the next few days offering relief to dry areas, but not enough to offset ongoing soil moisture deficits.
• Canada (Prairies): Sporadic precipitation, but prolonged dry spells may reduce spring wheat yield potential.
• Black Sea (Ukraine & South Russia): Elevated temperatures and below-average rainfall could stress crops in key production zones, risking further downgrades to output forecasts.
• EU (France, Germany, Poland): Showers are likely to improve soil conditions in some regions but not uniformly; French wheat yield prospects remain a concern due to earlier dryness.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Overview

Country/Region	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)	Change vs Prior Year
EU-27	131.5	17.3	↓ (drought risk)
Russia	84.0	16.5	↓ (recent revisions)
USA	51.1	18.8	↑ (winter wheat harvest)
Canada	31.5	6.1	↓ (hot/dry threats)
Australia	29.0	4.9	~ (neutral)
Ukraine	21.9	1.8	↓ (weather, war impact)
China	138.0	73.8	↑ (stable)
India	108.5	10.1	~ (policy-sensitive)

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor upcoming weather systems in key growing regions; unexpected heat or droughts could trigger sharp rallies.
• Short-term: The Market remains range-bound. Hedgers may consider locking in prices or using options for downside protection.
• Watch for shifts in speculative fund positioning, particularly at CBOT, where funds remain lightly net short.
• Keep up-to-date with the USDA Acreage and Crop Progress reports for potential supply shocks.
• Monitor EU export pace and Russian wheat policy—both can rapidly adjust global trade flows.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Price	Trend
CBOT	Jul 2025	565 – 575 USc/bu	Steady/Weak
Euronext (MATIF)	Sep 2025	208 – 211 EUR/t	Stable
ICE UK	Jul 2025	163 – 165 GBP/t	Stable