Wheat Market Analysis: Prices Stabilize Amid Weather Concerns and Harvest Progress

The wheat market in July 2025 reflects a landscape of cautious stability mixed with latent volatility as harvests progress across the Northern Hemisphere. Major exchanges in Europe and the US show little immediate movement, hinting at markets waiting for clearer signals from global weather patterns, export activity, and updated supply forecasts. Euronext (MATIF) wheat futures remain unchanged across multiple contracts, with September 2025 quoted at EUR 195.75/t, while Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures show mild gains, highlighting regional nuances in sentiment and fundamentals. Meanwhile, physical wheat prices for standard FOB and FCA deliveries out of major producing regions (France, the US, and Ukraine) have held steady over recent sessions, suggesting well-matched short-term supply and demand.

At the same time, forward-looking market participants are tracking adverse weather risk in critical breadbaskets — from dryness in the US Midwest and southern Russia to wet harvest delays in western Europe — while keeping a sharp eye on USDA crop progress, Black Sea grain flows, and speculative positioning. As global end-stocks hover near multi-year lows, every weather development and logistical challenge could rapidly tilt the market’s balance. This report unpacks current spot and futures prices, dives into supply and demand drivers, scrutinizes key weather maps, and offers an actionable forecast for the days ahead.

📈 Wheat Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Sep 25	195.75	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	Dec 25	205.75	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
CBOT	Sep 25	548.75	+0.18%	USD c/bu	Slightly Bullish
CBOT	Dec 25	569.75	+0.22%	USD c/bu	Slightly Bullish
ICE Feed Wheat	Nov 25	176.45	+0.57%	GBP/t	Upward Bias

Spot Export Prices (Latest Offers in EUR/t, FOB/FCA)

Origin	Spec/Protein	Delivery	Location	Price (EUR/t)	Change
US	11.5% min, CBOT	FOB	Washington D.C.	0.21	0%
FR	11.0% min	FOB	Paris	0.27	0%
UA	11.0% min	FOB	Odesa	0.19	0%
UA	10.5% min	FOB	Odesa	0.20	+5.3%
UA	12.5% min	FOB	Odesa	0.20	0%
UA	11.5% min	FCA	Kyiv	0.23	0%
UA	9.5% min	FCA	Kyiv	0.22	0%

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA June WASDE: Global 2025/26 wheat production revised modestly higher, but end-stocks projected near five-year lows due to firm consumption and modest export growth.
• Crop Progress: US winter wheat harvest >60%, with yields mostly average in the southern Plains. Spring wheat areas report patchy emergence.
• Black Sea Exports: Russian and Ukrainian shipments are steady, but dry spells in southern Russia and logistical uncertainties in the Black Sea add upside risk.
• Spec Positioning: Managed money on CBOT modestly net short, suggesting room for short-covering rallies.
• EU Situation: France and Germany face harvest delays after wet early July; localised flooding is a concern for quality.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Global Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Export Outlook
EU	126	12.5	Stable
Russia	91	12	Uncertain
US	50	16.5	Steady
Ukraine	20	2.5	Steady
China	139	139	Non-exporter
India	109	15	Minimal

• Global ending stocks: 255 Mt (near 5-year lows, mostly in China; available exporters’ stocks remain tight).
• Import demand: North Africa and the Middle East maintain strong interest despite currency challenges.
• Quality premiums: May strengthen if EU harvest weather causes feed grade downgrades.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Midwest US: Scattered showers expected, beneficial for late spring wheat but could delay winter wheat harvest completion.
• Black Sea: Ongoing dryness in southern Russia and Ukraine remains a concern for yield potential; no major relief expected in the next 3 days.
• Western Europe: Persistent rains over northern France and Germany risk further harvest delays and potential quality loss.
• Australia: Southern regions remain seasonally dry but within normal range; planting largely finished.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider hedging post-harvest sales on spikes linked to weather or Black Sea headlines.
• Exporters: Monitor EU and Black Sea logistics; secure export slots early as port congestion risk rises with the new crop.
• Importers: Consider layering in cover for Q4 2025-Q1 2026; the market is highly sensitive to further production downgrades.
• Speculators: Watch for short-covering opportunities if US weather turns abruptly drier or further geopolitical tensions emerge.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange	Direction	Forecast Range	Sentiment
Euronext (Sep 25)	Sideways/Up	195-199 EUR/t	Neutral-to-Slightly Bullish
CBOT (Sep 25)	Up	547-555 USc/bu	Slightly Bullish
ICE Feed Wheat (Nov 25)	Up	176-179 GBP/t	Bullish