Wheat Market Analysis: Sideways Action Amid Supply Uncertainty and Weather Risks

The global wheat market finds itself at a pivotal moment. Commodity futures across major exchanges are showing subdued volatility and little price change, hinting at a temporary equilibrium—yet deep-seated uncertainty looms just below the surface. Prices on Euronext and CBOT remain nearly flat, with limited movement in both directions. Meanwhile, physical market offers from Ukraine and France reflect mild downward adjustment, underscoring competitive export dynamics and plentiful short-term availability. However, the underlying stability masks several key stressors.

In Ukraine, resilient logistics underpin export flows despite broader geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, concerns persist about weather conditions, especially as forecasts flag a mixed outlook for the US Plains, Black Sea, and parts of the EU. The risk of unfavourable dryness during critical development stages persists, keeping market participants on alert. Global wheat stocks are projected to remain tight, and any weather-driven downgrades could quickly reignite volatility. Advance USDA acreage data and speculative positioning offer clues to future market direction, but the next weather event or inspection data release could swiftly tip the balance. For now, buyers benefit from competitive options and steady supply, but the seeds of the next rally may already be sown in the soil.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext Sep 25	208.00	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
CBOT Jul 25	565.25	-0.44%	US¢/bu	Cautious
ICE Feed Wheat Jul 25	146.35	-11.58%	GBP/t	Bearish

 

Origin	Protein	Purity	Price	Prev. Price	Currency	Location	Terms	Last Updated
UA – Kyiv	11.5%	98%	0.24	0.24	EUR/kg	FCA	2025-06-20
UA – Odesa	11.5%	98%	0.25	0.25	EUR/kg	FCA	2025-06-20
UA – Odesa	9.5%	98%	0.23	0.24	EUR/kg	FCA	2025-06-20
UA – Kyiv	9.5%	98%	0.22	0.23	EUR/kg	FCA	2025-06-20
FR – Paris	11.0%	98%	0.26	0.27	EUR/kg	FOB	2025-06-20

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine & Black Sea: Exports holding steady amid logistical and geopolitical headwinds.
• EU: Strong supply, but late-season weather threats in France and Germany are being watched closely.
• US: Mixed crop conditions—good in parts of the Midwest, dry risks in the Plains; speculative positioning leans net short.
• Global: World ending stocks forecast near five-year lows according to USDA; China remains a major buyer, but import pace is steady, not spectacular.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA’s latest reports indicate flat to slightly rising US acreage.
• Speculative funds have cut long positions on CBOT, showing market caution.
• The Russian new crop harvest is underway; size and quality reports remain mixed.
• Export demand is robust for Ukrainian and French wheat, but global consumer interest wavers at highs.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Great Plains: Forecast calls for patchy dryness over next week—risk for yield loss if extended.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Southern Russia): Near-normal rainfall is expected, but localised thunderstorms could delay harvest.
• Western Europe: Cooler, wetter pattern to prevail, potentially slowing harvest but supporting kernel weight.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Prod. (mt)	YoY Chg	Ending Stocks (mt)	Notes
EU	133	+2%	15	Ample supply, mostly good quality
Russia	92	Flat	18	Harvest mixed, export pace active
Ukraine	22	-3%	2	Stable exports despite war risks
US	50	+1%	16	Mixed weather, quality issues, local
China	136	+1%	73	Largest stocks globally

📆 Trading & Market Outlook

• Market remains rangebound near current levels; wait for clearer direction from harvest, USDA data, and weather updates.
• Importers: Monitor for harvest-induced dips to secure forward coverage; availability currently good, especially ex Black Sea.
• Producers: Consider incremental selling on spot rallies if weather threats persist in key regions.
• Speculators: Short-term strategies favoured, as weather headlines could drive quick volatility spikes.
• Watch for further signals from Russia’s new crop progress and US Plains weather.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Contract	Current Price	Forecast Range	Sentiment
Euronext (Sep 25)	208.00 EUR/t	206.00 – 210.00 EUR/t	Neutral
CBOT (Jul 25)	565.25 US¢/bu	560.00 – 570.00 US¢/bu	Cautious/Neutral
ICE Feed Wheat (Jul 25)	146.35 GBP/t	145.00 – 150.00 GBP/t	Bearish/Stable