Wheat Market Analysis: Stable Exports, Mild Domestic Pressure as Harvest Nears Completion

The wheat market continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of mixed signals, marked by stable export prices and moderate downward pressure on domestic quotations, particularly in Kazakhstan and the Black Sea region. As the 2025 harvest wraps up, traders remain cautious, holding off on large purchases until volumes are finalized. Kazakhstan’s grain sector is experiencing a holding pattern, with little change in export sentiment; analysts expect domestic prices could soften slightly, potentially boosting export competitiveness once harvesting concludes. Meanwhile, global wheat prices at major exchanges like Euronext, CBOT, and Black Sea ports are influenced by ample harvests, competitive Russian and Ukrainian offers, and uneven demand from traditional importing countries.

Weather remains a wildcard: mostly favorable conditions in key producers (Ukraine, France, the US) support healthy yields, though isolated dryness in Central Asia and southern Russia could threaten late-harvest output. Speculative positioning on major futures exchanges suggests limited upward momentum, with commercial hedging dominating current flows. In the coming weeks, market participants should monitor the interplay between finalized harvest data, logistical bottlenecks, and shifting export policies across the Black Sea, all of which will guide price direction into early October.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

Origin	Location	Spec/Protein	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Previous Price	Date	Sentiment
UA (Ukraine)	Odesa	Protein 11.5%	FCA	0.25	0.25	2025-09-26	Stable
UA (Ukraine)	Kyiv	Protein 11.5%	FCA	0.24	0.24	2025-09-26	Stable
UA (Ukraine)	Kyiv	Protein 9.5%	FCA	0.22	0.22	2025-09-26	Stable
UA (Ukraine)	Odesa	Protein 9.5%	FCA	0.23	0.23	2025-09-26	Stable
US (CBOT)	Washington D.C.	Protein 11.5%	FOB	0.21	0.23	2025-09-25	Negative
FR (France/Euronext)	Paris	Protein 11.0%	FOB	0.27	0.29	2025-09-25	Negative

• Kazakhstan (Sept 29): Class 3 Wheat $94–129/t (USD), Grade 4 $88/t, Grade 5 $76/t, Durum $105–119/t (slightly lower for lower grades).
• Barley declined modestly, reflecting weak feed demand and ample supply.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Harvest Timing: Traders hesitating until full harvest completion; Kazakhstan’s domestic prices may dip, increasing export viability.
• Black Sea Competition: Russian/Ukrainian offers remain competitive, capping price upside in global markets.
• Global Demand: Importers including Egypt, Algeria, and China have slowed purchases on expectations of further price drops and strong supply.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money net positions at CBOT and Euronext are cautious, suggesting little directional conviction in the short-term.

📊 Fundamentals Comparison

Country	2024/25 Est. Production (mln t)	2024/25 Est. Exports (mln t)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mln t)
Russia	91	48	18
Ukraine	22	15	2.5
Kazakhstan	13.5	8	2.2
EU	128	33	11
US	49	19.5	15.5

Sources: USDA, industry reports, national ministries as of September 2025.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine & South Russia: Favorable with scattered rains, alleviating dryness concerns for late wheat fields.
• Kazakhstan: Mostly dry and cool; risk of further dryness could trim final yields, but current reports indicate near-average harvest.
• US Plains: Mild temperatures and adequate moisture support wheat sowing and early germination.
• France/Western Europe: Stable and cooler than average; supports grain fill, but persistent wet spells could slightly delay harvest in the north.

📆 Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-Term: Expect domestic prices in Kazakhstan and the broader Black Sea to ease further as new crop flows intensify.
• Medium-Term: Stable export prices likely, with downside risk if Russian and Ukrainian volumes accelerate or global demand softens further.
• Hedging/Trading: Producers may consider locking in export offers; buyers should closely monitor logistics and weather before making large-volume purchases.
• Speculators: Range-trading strategies favored given limited volatility and two-way risks on exchange markets.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Price Range (EUR/t)	Trend
CBOT (US, FOB)	0.20–0.22	Steady/Soft
Euronext (France, FOB)	0.27–0.29	Soft
UA (Odesa, FCA/FOB)	0.19–0.25	Steady
Kazakhstan (domestic/USD)	$90–125	Softening