Wheat Market at Crossroads: Bearish Stocks Collide with Yield Risks and Mixed Global Signals

The global wheat market finds itself at a critical juncture as bearish USDA reports and expanding US inventories send futures sliding, while localized yield concerns in Ukraine and mixed European figures inject short-term volatility. Last week witnessed significant downward pressure, with wheat prices dropping between 3.9% and 8.7% across major US exchanges. An uptick in US stockpiles—now at 23.15 million tons—surpassed analysts’ forecasts and has added to the supply glut fears, particularly as US plantings and exports see marginal adjustments. However, harvest delays and lower crop conditions in key US regions, together with reduced yield expectations in Ukraine, are lending support to spot and export prices in the Black Sea area—underscoring a divergence in regional market dynamics.

The European picture is equally nuanced: the EU is on track for a 15% y/y production rebound but faces headwinds from weaker exports and a strengthening euro, which is undercutting its competitiveness. In Ukraine, a sharply reduced harvest outlook is prompting premium purchases for quick delivery, as supply tightness looms on the horizon. The dynamic global interplay—fueled by erratic weather, currency movements, and shifting trade flows—is redefining wheat market sentiment week by week. This report synthesizes the latest data, weather outlooks, and trading cues, providing a comprehensive lens on the wheat market’s path forward.

📈 Prices

Market	Type/Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Jul SRW	$194.30/t	-4.5%	Bearish
Kansas City	Jul HRW	$185.90/t	-8.7%	Very Bearish
Minneapolis	Jul HRS	$221.60/t	-3.9%	Bearish
Euronext (Paris)	Sep	€195.00/t ($230.00/t)	-4.7%	Bearish

Origin	Type	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Last Updated
US	CBOT min. 11.5%	Washington D.C.	0.21	0.22	2025-07-01
France	min. 11.0%	Paris	0.27	0.26	2025-07-01
Ukraine (FOB)	min. 11.0%	Odesa	0.19	0.19	2025-07-01
Ukraine (FOB)	min. 10.5%	Odesa	0.19	0.20	2025-07-01
Ukraine (FOB)	min. 12.5%	Odesa	0.20	0.20	2025-07-01
Ukraine (FCA)	min. 11.5%	Kyiv	0.23	0.24	2025-06-27
Ukraine (FCA)	min. 11.5%	Odesa	0.24	0.25	2025-06-27
Ukraine (FCA)	min. 9.5%	Kyiv	0.22	0.22	2025-06-27
Ukraine (FCA)	min. 9.5%	Odesa	0.23	0.23	2025-06-27

🌍 Supply & Demand

• 📋 US Wheat Stocks (June 1): 23.15m tons (+1.8% vs. forecast; +4.19m tons y/y)
• 🗺 US Plantings: 45.478m acres (+40k vs. forecasts, +128k vs. March)
• 🚢 US Exports (2025/26 MY): 1.279m tons (-7.9% y/y), weekly up 70.5% (434.5k tons)
• 🇪🇺 EU Output (2025/26): 128.2m tons (+15% y/y); Exports: 19.9m tons (-35% y/y); Imports: 7.3m tons (-1.8m tons)
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine Output (2024/25): 21.88m tons (Argus), 23m tons (USDA); Export food wheat: $208–211/t, fodder: $199–201/t
• 🇪🇬 Egyptian Local Purchases: 3.9m tons (below 4–5m target; higher imports likely)

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Bearish USDA reports increase downward pressure—stocks above expectations, plantings higher, exports lagging
• EU production rebound, yet lower exports and strong euro impact global competitiveness
• Ukrainian harvest downgrade supports Black Sea prices, especially for prompt deliveries
• Egyptian shortfall in local procurement signals potential for increased global import demand
• Speculative positioning: Funds have expanded short bets on US wheat, according to latest CFTC data

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• US: Wet weather is slowing the winter wheat harvest, now 37% complete (vs. 52% last year). Crop conditions deteriorated slightly to 48% good/excellent (down 1% point); spring wheat condition also declined, indicating weather stress in northern plains.
• EU: Western/Eastern Europe mostly favorable with brief rains improving soil moisture, but harvest pace remains brisk. Further heat spells possible in southeastern Europe in the coming days.
• Ukraine: Drier weather in southern and central regions supports harvest progress but accentuates yield losses in already-impacted areas, supporting the premium for prompt delivery wheat.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)
USA	49.30	23.15
EU	128.20	Estimate: ~16.2
Ukraine	21.88–23.00	Estimate: ~1.7
Russia	85–90 (latest forecasts)	Estimate: ~15+
Australia	25–27 (subject to El Niño)	Estimate: ~4.5

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term momentum remains bearish for global wheat as US/EU inventories build and funds maintain short exposure
• Look for supportive bounces on weather-driven supply disruptions, especially in the Black Sea and northern US Plains
• Monitor shipping and currency trends—the weaker USD may underpin US export competitiveness, while a stronger euro is a headwind for EU prices
• For exporters: Favor prompt sales of available stocks, especially in Ukraine and the US, to capture current premiums before harvest glut peaks
• For importers: Stagger purchases, as short-term dips could provide advantageous buying opportunities, but keep an eye on Black Sea premiums if Ukraine’s crop shortfall deepens
• Watch for geopolitical, shipping, or supply chain disruption risks that could quickly alter market tone

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT SRW (Jul): $192–196/t (broadly stable to mildly softer, watch US Midwest harvest progress)
• Kansas City HRW (Jul): $184–187/t (stabilizing, may bottom if rains persist)
• Euronext Sep: €193–197/t (modest consolidation, following euro and harvest signals)
• Black Sea (Ukraine FOB, food): $209–212/t (firm on short supply, weather-sensitive)
• Ukrainian fodder wheat: $200–202/t (stable, but upside risk if more yield losses emerge)