Wheat Market Faces Persistent Pressure Amid Weak Arrivals and Global Headwinds

The global wheat market is undergoing a phase of notable price weakness, driven by limited grain arrivals and subdued demand dynamics. In key production and trading centers, wheat prices have consistently drifted lower over the past week, most recently falling by $3.10–$3.20 per quintal, despite attempts by authorities to bolster procurement activity. Market participants report that not only are arrivals lagging expected seasonal patterns, but the overall availability of wheat remains restricted, particularly across several core producing states.

This tightness on the supply side has not motivated stronger buying from local flour mills, leaving weekly trade volumes at subdued levels. Simultaneously, on the global stage, wheat prices have retraced by approximately 1.2% in response to intensifying export competition and a strengthening US dollar, both of which have exacerbated bearish sentiment in local and international markets. Importantly, unless arrivals recover more robustly in the coming period, market consensus anticipates ongoing price pressure. Compounding these trends, macroeconomic factors and evolving weather patterns in major wheat-growing regions could further influence supply-demand fundamentals as the season progresses.

📈 Wheat Prices Overview

Exchange/Market	Product / Protein	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Wheat, 11.50%	Washington D.C., US	FOB	€0.23/kg	€0.23/kg	0%	Weak
Euronext	Wheat, 11.00%	Paris, FR	FOB	€0.29/kg	€0.29/kg	0%	Neutral
Odesa (UA)	Wheat, 9.50%	Odesa, UA	FCA	€0.23/kg	€0.24/kg	-4.17%	Weak
Kyiv (UA)	Wheat, 9.50%	Kyiv, UA	FCA	€0.22/kg	€0.22/kg	0%	Weak
Odesa (UA)	Wheat, 11.50%	Odesa, UA	FCA	€0.25/kg	€0.25/kg	0%	Stable
Kyiv (UA)	Wheat, 11.50%	Kyiv, UA	FCA	€0.24/kg	€0.24/kg	0%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Wheat, 12.50%	Odesa, UA	FOB	€0.21/kg	€0.21/kg	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Limited Arrivals: Wheat arrivals into regional markets remain heavily restricted, especially in key producing states, which is keeping overall supply tight.
• Subdued Demand: Flour mills and end-users are hesitant in procurement due to uncertainties around further price declines.
• Global Export Competition: Major exporters (notably Russia, EU, and parts of Australia) are increasing market share amid favorable export pricing, adding further price pressure.
• Stronger Dollar: The stronger USD has made US-origin wheat more expensive for non-dollar denominated buyers, shifting demand to other exporters.
• Limited Speculative Interest: Current positioning shows no aggressive speculative buying as traders remain risk-averse in light of persistent bearish news flow.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Recent updates highlight stable to slightly lower global ending stocks, with output in the Black Sea region (Ukraine, Russia) exceeding earlier drought-impacted expectations.
• Crop Acreage: In India and other major producers, limited planting due to erratic monsoons and water shortages is noted, but offset by improved inputs in other key producers.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratios: Still above historic lows, lending a buffer to potential supply shocks; however, local inventories in South Asia and North Africa warrant monitoring as import needs grow.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Black Sea Region: Favorable rains have aided late-season crop development, supporting higher yields, but excess rainfall in some pockets could delay harvest and reduce quality.
• Midwest US: Cooler, scattered showers are maintaining adequate soil moisture, boding well for the later stages of spring wheat but slightly delaying harvest activities.
• EU (France, Germany): Conditions remain generally good, though patchy dryness in southern France requires attention for quality concerns.
• South Asia (India, Pakistan): Rising temperatures and sporadic rainfall could further curb late crop planting, potentially tightening the import outlook for 2025.

🌐 Global Production and Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	50.5	16.8
Russia	89.0	18.3
EU	134.6	12.7
India	107.0	10.4
Ukraine	21.2	5.1
China	136.9	133.4
Global Aggregate	790.8	266.3

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor arrivals in key producing regions; further delays could trigger short-term price volatility.
• Importers should consider forward contracts to lock-in current low prices where storage allows.
• End-users (e.g., flour mills) may benefit from staggered buying to exploit any additional short-term declines.
• Exporters from Black Sea and EU likely to remain aggressive, so watch for further price competition.
• Traders should keep abreast of currency movements—USD strength versus EUR impacts competitiveness.
• Keep close watch on speculative flows and any surprise regulatory/policy changes.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Outlook

Exchange/Market	Today	Day 2	Day 3
CBOT (US)	€0.23/kg	€0.23/kg	€0.22/kg
Euronext (FR)	€0.29/kg	€0.28/kg	€0.28/kg
Odesa (UA)	€0.20–0.25/kg	€0.20–0.25/kg	€0.20–0.24/kg