Wheat Market Faces Price Pressure Amid Sluggish Trade and Ample Farm Stocks

The global wheat market is currently navigating a complex scenario shaped by sluggish trade volumes, ample on-farm inventories, and declining prices across major exchanges. In the key Polish market, wheat supply remains concentrated in large farms, with many producers delaying sales in hopes of improved pricing, causing slow movement into the supply chain. Concurrently, wheat processors and exporters have responded to recent price drops on MATIF and at seaports by adjusting their purchase bids downward. Export demand has further weakened due to Poland’s comparatively high pricing, and the country’s wheat exports are expected to be about half of last season’s volume.

Internationally, market sentiment is bearish with recent wheat futures showing a steady downtrend at CBOT, MATIF, and Black Sea ports owing to favourable weather prospects in the Northern Hemisphere, large carryover stocks, and subdued import demand from traditional buyers such as North Africa and Asia. The coming days will be critical as market observers track weather developments and the pace of new crop marketing, but the near-term outlook maintains a cautious tone. Below is a comprehensive breakdown, including updated price tables, key market drivers, global supply comparisons, and actionable recommendations for traders and producers.

📈 Wheat Prices Overview

Exchange/Region	Product	Protein (%)	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg or PLN/t)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT (US)	Wheat	min. 11.5	FOB	0.23	0.24	-4.2%	Bearish
Euronext (FR)	Wheat	min. 11.0	FOB	0.27	0.28	-3.6%	Bearish
Black Sea (UA Odesa)	Wheat	min. 11.0	FOB	0.20	0.20	0%	Stable/Bearish
Poland – Domestic (June 2025)	Consumption Wheat	12.5	DAP	850–890 PLN/t	n/a	-10–15 PLN/t vs mid-week	Bearish
Poland – Ports (June 2025)	Cons. Wheat (13.5)	13.5	Port	905–915 PLN/t	n/a	-10–15 PLN/t	Bearish
Ukraine (FCA, Odesa)	Wheat	min. 11.5	FCA	0.25	0.26	-3.8%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• On-farm stocks: Polish farms holding large unsold wheat volumes, most of which may carry through to the next season.
• Processor & exporter demand: Domestic demand is slow. Millers appear covered for pre-harvest needs, and exporters have limited activity due to falling prices and tightening margins.
• Exports trending down: Poland shipped only 230,000 tons of wheat by sea in May 2025 (down from 856,000 tons in May 2024). Full-season forecast is 3.3–3.4 Mt vs last year’s 6.7 Mt.
• International competition: Cheaper wheat from the Black Sea region suppresses Polish and Western European export prospects.
• Speculative flows: Hedge funds remain net short on CBOT wheat, exerting additional downward price pressure.

📊 Fundamentals and Global Comparisons

• European Union: Decent projected harvest volumes, but high carryover stocks dampen new crop prospects. Lower overseas sales due to competition from Russia and Ukraine.
• Black Sea Region: Improved weather conditions and strong yields, but tense logistics due to ongoing regional conflicts.
• US: Crop conditions are generally good, but with localised drought risks in parts of the Midwest.
• Stocks-to-use ratios: Remain high globally, in particular for top exporters (Russia, EU, and US).

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact on Yields

• Poland & Central Europe: Rainfall in June has improved soil moisture, supporting grain fill. No severe weather disruptions expected in the next 2–3 days.
• Black Sea: Stable growing conditions, with some showers benefiting late crops. No major droughts reported.
• US Plains & Midwest: Conditions remain mostly favourable, but recent hot spells warrant monitoring.

🌍 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country / Region	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Export Estimate (Mt)
Russia	87	17	51
EU	131	14	34
US	50	16	19
Ukraine	21	5	14
Canada	33	4	22
Australia	29	3	19
China (import)	137	140	n/a
Egypt (import)	8	3	n/a

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔻 Producers: Postpone major sales if possible. Hold stocks awaiting stabilisation or seasonal rallies. Sell only to secure cash flow.
• 🔻 Exporters: Reduce spot offers; consider only short-term positions with minimal risk, given weak overseas demand.
• 🔻 Buyers (millers/processors): Take advantage of softer prices to accumulate inventory ahead of new crop arrivals.
• 🔹 Speculators: Maintain a defensive approach; avoid aggressive long positions until a clear price base emerges.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current (12-13 June 2025)	Forecast (3 days)	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	0.23 EUR/kg	0.22–0.23 EUR/kg	Weak/Bearish
Euronext (FR)	0.27 EUR/kg	0.26–0.27 EUR/kg	Cautious
Poland (Domestic)	850–890 PLN/t	840–880 PLN/t	Bearish
Ukraine (Odesa FOB)	0.20 EUR/kg	0.19–0.20 EUR/kg	Stable/Bearish

Summary: The wheat market faces ongoing headwinds from softening demand, high inventories, and solid crop prospects globally, keeping downside pressure on prices. Weather remains a watch factor, but absent notable surprises, the market’s short-term trend is expected to stay weak, especially for European and Black Sea origins.