The wheat market is facing a new wave of volatility as conflicting supply outlooks, geopolitical risks, and weather disruptions create uncertainty for producers, traders, and end users. Recent price corrections on both the Euronext and CBOT followed a brief recovery, reflecting the market’s struggle to balance tightening Black Sea supplies with stronger harvest prospects elsewhere, especially in Romania. Ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine not only heightens logistical and production risks but also casts a shadow over medium-term export flows, as both countries expect slightly reduced harvests and lower near-term shipments. Meanwhile, shifting EU import rules and uncertainties around quotas for Ukrainian grains are set to reshape trade routes and intra-European competition.

In Western Europe, slightly declining crop conditions in France have stabilised thanks to favourable moisture since late May, raising hopes for a manageable harvest despite persistent weather-related stress. Across the Atlantic, U.S. winter wheat harvest progress lags the average as heavy rains stall early cutting, particularly in Kansas and Oklahoma. Export demand remains lacklustre, with recent USDA data showing subdued US shipment levels, while managed money continues to reduce large net short positions, a sign that risk appetite for aggressively lower prices is waning. As a result, the wheat market remains delicately poised: bullish input from geopolitical flare-ups and tightening Russian and Ukrainian exports clashes with bumper crops elsewhere and sporadic demand. All eyes are now on official crop updates, weather in key growing regions, and the unfolding EU-Ukraine trade relationship.

📈 Prices and Market Sentiment

Exchange	Contract	Close	Wk Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Sep 25	201.75	+4.00 (+2%)	EUR/t	Volatile, cautious buying
CBOT	Jul 25	542.00	+20.75 (+2.2%)	US-Cent/bu	Sharp swings, short covering
ICE	Jul 25	155.85	-4.40 (-2.82%)	GBP/t	Pressured by ample UK supply

Spot Offers (FOB, Major Origins)

Origin	Type / Protein	Location	Delivery Terms	Price	Currency	Updated
US	CBOT, min. 11.5%	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.24	USD/lb	2025-06-05
FR	min. 11.0%	Paris	FOB	0.28	EUR/kg	2025-06-05
UA	min. 11.0%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	USD/kg	2025-06-05

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Black Sea disruption: War in Ukraine and Russia affects production, logistics, and export flows, with lower 2025 projections from APK-Inform and SovEcon.
• Harvest prospects: Ukraine 2025: 21.7 Mt (down 100,000 t); Russia: 82.8 Mt (down 1.8 Mt); Romania expects a record crop due to spring rains.
• EU-Ukraine quotas: Reinstated quotas add trade uncertainty; the new rules could redirect Ukrainian exports to Africa/Asia and boost intra-EU wheat use.
• French crop ratings: FranceAgriMer: 69% of soft wheat in good/excellent condition—down 1%, but above year-ago levels.
• US harvest pace: USDA Crop Progress: US winter wheat harvest at 4% (average: 7%), with rain slowing progress in key states.
• Weak US exports: Latest exports 290,957 t (down 47.5% w/w; 17.5% y/y).
• Speculator moves: Funds cut net short CBOT wheat positions by 654 contracts to 100,572 (as of June 3), suggesting hesitation to press bearish bets.
• Romania: Record crop expected, adding pressure to European prices.

📊 Wheat Market Fundamentals

• Stocks:
  • Global: End 2024/25 stocks expected to decrease marginally as smaller Russian/Ukraine crops offset increases in Romania and possibly the US.
  • Major Exporters: Tightening Black Sea supply could place renewed importance on North American and EU availability.
  • Importers: North Africa and Asia likely to see adjusted flows, with less direct dependence on European quotas for Ukrainian grain.
• Production:
  • Russia: 82.8 Mt (down from prior 84.6 Mt)
  • Ukraine: 21.7 Mt (slight downgrade)
  • Romania: Record crop expected (official data pending)
  • France: Crop in reasonable shape; weather key
  • US: Harvest delayed, crop quality improving

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Black Sea: Mixed. Some relief from earlier dryness, but variable conditions continue—risk for late yields persists.
• Romania: Ample spring rains underpin bumper forecast; slight risk of disease if excessive wetness persists at harvest.
• France: June showers have stabilised conditions, helping late-filling grains. No major threats currently, mild temperatures expected.
• US Plains: Strong rains forecast in Texas/Oklahoma this week, adding further risk of harvest delays and localised quality loss.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued volatility around Black Sea news and EU-Ukraine trade negotiations.
• Watch for US harvest pace and French crop condition updates as key short-term drivers.
• Monitor speculative positioning, as further short covering could add short-term upside risk.
• End users: Secure Q3-Q4 coverage on price dips, particularly from Romanian/EU sources; consider wider origin mix as EU quotas take effect.
• Exporters: Maintain close contact with logistics partners; be agile to shifts in demand to Africa/Asia.
• Speculators: Manage risk tightly—news-driven market remains susceptible to sharp reversals in either direction.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Period	Expected Range	Direction	Risk Factors
Euronext Sep 25	Next 3 Days	199–205 EUR/t	Sideways-volatile	War news, crop reports, EU quota clarity
CBOT Jul 25	Next 3 Days	530–545 c/bu	Sideways, possibly choppy	Harvest pace, rainfall in Plains
ICE Feed Wheat Jul 25	Next 3 Days	155–158 GBP/t	Stable to slightly higher	UK crop outlook, EU competition

Europe Weather Map