Wheat Market Holds Firm Amid OMSS Supply and Weak Milling Demand

The global wheat market remains steady against a backdrop of government intervention and subdued demand from flour millers and private buyers. Over the last week, wheat prices in major Indian mandis softened, trading between $26.60 and $27.80 per quintal, primarily due to ample government stock sales under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS). The Food Corporation of India’s strategy to offload wheat at auction base rates has effectively anchored prices, preventing upward volatility and dampening speculative activity in the spot market.

Across international cash and futures markets, European and Ukrainian wheat FOB and FCA prices are largely unchanged, reflecting a balance between steady global demand, sufficient inventories, and muted speculative interest as harvests progress. Flour millers, the largest volume buyers, are sitting on comfortable stock levels, leading to noticeably slower procurement in key North Indian markets. The weak milling demand coincides with continued assurance from the government of regular OMSS sales, discouraging private stockists from building inventory.

Looking ahead, the wheat market is expected to trade in a narrow range. Active government auction supply is set to cap any price rallies, though potential weather disruptions or abrupt surges in bulk demand could offer short-lived price support. Overall, the tone is calm but cautious, with downside risks limited by policy support and upside capped by weak offtake and high availability.

📈 Prices: Latest Wheat Market Overview

Origin	Type	Location / Exchange	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
UA	Protein min. 11.50%	Kyiv	FCA	0.24	0.24	0%	Neutral
UA	Protein min. 11.50%	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25	0%	Neutral
UA	Protein min. 9.50%	Kyiv	FCA	0.23	0.23	0%	Neutral
UA	Protein min. 9.50%	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25	0%	Neutral
US (CBOT)	Protein min. 11.50%	Washington	FOB	0.22	0.22	0%	Neutral
FR (Euronext)	Protein min. 11.00%	Paris	FOB	0.28	0.28	0%	Neutral
UA	Protein min. 11.00%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.19	+5%	Firm
UA	Protein min. 10.50%	Odesa	FOB	0.21	0.20	+5%	Slightly bullish
UA	Protein min. 12.50%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	0%	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand: Global and Local Drivers

• India: OMSS auctions remain a steady supply source, capping spot prices across major mandis (Delhi, MP, UP, Bihar, Rajasthan). Flour mills report low buying interest due to ample stocks and stable retail demand.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Export flow is stable; recent small uptick in Odesa FOB prices suggests local supply tightening or logistics pressures, but not enough to alter the broader equilibrium.
• Global: No major export demand surges; large importers (Egypt, Turkey) remain well-supplied. USDA data indicates global wheat inventories are adequate for the next quarter.
• Speculative positions: Managed money mostly neutral on new longs, as harvest pressure and government stock sales temper bullish sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals: Analysis and Data

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE shows world ending stocks slightly above 5-year average. No major production shortfalls in top exporters (US, Russia, EU, Ukraine).
• India: OMSS is a major market anchor, suppressing open buying. Market expects this will continue at least through upcoming quarters.
• Europe: Harvest near completion with protein quality variances in France and Germany, but overall volumes meet export norms.

Country/Block	2024-25 Output (Mt)	Year-on-Year Change	Ending Stocks (Mt)
EU	132.4	-1%	11.6
Russia	86.0	+2%	17.8
US	50.4	+3%	20.2
Ukraine	22.5	-5%	3.5
India	113.5	0%	8.1

☀️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• Black Sea: Moderate rains forecast in southern Ukraine and southern Russia, aiding late harvest progress. No major heat stress risks expected in the next week.
• Western Europe: France and Germany remain dry but harvest nearly complete, so minimal crop impact.
• US Plains: Mostly dry with seasonal temperatures, supporting early winter wheat plantings.
• India: Monsoon has receded; planting conditions for late wheat expected to be average. No weather threats.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term direction: Range-bound, with OMSS auctions acting as price ceiling.
• Downside support from government procurement, limited risk of sharp drop.
• Monitor OMSS scheduling and participation for any indications of supply constraints or demand spikes.
• Buyers can remain patient for spot purchases. End users should continue auction-based procurement to avoid unnecessary inventory build.
• Any weather shock or export ban announcement may trigger a brief price rally.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Direction
Kyiv FCA	0.24	0.23 – 0.24	Stable/Soft
Odesa FCA	0.25	0.24 – 0.25	Stable
Paris FOB	0.28	0.28	Stable
US (CBOT FOB)	0.22	0.22 – 0.23	Stable/Mildly Firm