Wheat Market Holds Steady: Domestic Stability Amid Global Shifts

The wheat market is at a crossroads, marked by remarkable domestic price stability despite global headwinds and mild international softness. Over the past week, Indian domestic markets such as Rajkot, Gondal, Jamnagar, and Junagadh have reported stable wheat prices ranging from $387–$393 per metric ton, reflecting steady arrivals and unwavering demand from millers and wholesalers. This calm persists even as international benchmark wheat prices dipped by 0.34%, suggesting that domestic fundamentals—moderate arrivals and predictable consumption—continue to underpin market firmness.

Notably, price volatility was minimal, and the spread between premium and regular-quality wheat remained consistent, hinting at equilibrium between supply and demand in local trade hubs. Globally, traders are watching the impact of weather in key producing regions, crop progress, and the latest USDA reports. While global benchmarks show some downward traction, India’s local demand and supply handshake seems resilient, a sharp contrast to the more fluid international scenario. For traders and food processors alike, this environment offers both stability and an opportunity to position ahead of any supply shocks or demand surges. Weather in top exporting nations and ongoing forecasts will be critical to monitor as the season progresses.

📈 Latest Wheat Market Prices

Location/Exchange	Type	Delivery Terms	Price	Previous Price	Change	Market Sentiment
Rajkot (IN)	Domestic	Spot	$387–$393/MT	–	Unchanged	Stable
Gondal (IN)	Domestic	Spot	$388–$393/MT	–	Unchanged	Stable
Jamnagar, Junagadh (IN)	Domestic	Spot	$389–$392/MT	–	Unchanged	Stable
Kyiv (UA)	Protein min. 11.50%	FCA	€0.24/kg	€0.24/kg	0.00%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Protein min. 11.50%	FCA	€0.26/kg	€0.25/kg	+4.00%	Firm
CBOT (US)	Protein min. 11.50%	FOB	€0.23/kg	€0.22/kg	+4.55%	Stable
Euronext (FR)	Protein min. 11.00%	FOB	€0.29/kg	€0.28/kg	+3.57%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Consistent domestic arrivals (Rajkot: ~1,000 quintals; Gondal: ~1,500 quintals) maintain balanced stocks.
• Stable premium and super-quality pricing shows reliable miller/wholesaler demand.
• International benchmarks (CBOT/Euronext) slightly down but not affecting India’s firm internal sentiment.
• USDA figures point to moderate global stocks, with weather patterns in Black Sea and North America as key risks.
• Speculative positioning remains within normal ranges, with no extreme long/short build-ups detected in recent CFTC trader reports.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• India: Wheat arrivals and local consumption pace continue to match, preventing glut or shortage.
• Ukraine: Export offers stable to slightly firmer; post-harvest grain flows robust despite logistic challenges.
• US & EU: Recent rains in some producing states support crop conditions; however, dry spells in parts of EU and North America still a concern.
• Global Stocks: Current pace suggests stocks-to-use ratio may tighten if adverse weather persists into September.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• India: Normal monsoon forecasts for key wheat-growing states raise confidence for upcoming sowing.
• Ukraine: Weather patterns mostly favorable; risk of scattered late-summer rain delays in Black Sea ports could impact logistic flows.
• US (Midwest): Rainfall improved in some areas, but patchy dryness persists; will be decisive in setting final yields.
• France: Slight drought alleviation reported, supporting near-term EU market stability.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (est., million MT)	Stocks (million MT)	Trend
India	110	22	Stable
EU	133	13	Steady
Russia	86	16	Slightly Down
Ukraine	24	4	Steady
United States	49	15	Steady
China	138	60	Steady

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term price range in India likely stable, with tight local spreads and firm consumer demand.
• Monitor weather in the Black Sea, US Midwest, and EU for any late-season supply risks.
• Watch for new USDA/WASDE updates for signals on global stocks and major exporter output revisions.
• Millers and processors advised to cover near-term needs on dips; exporters should hedge against Black Sea logistic uncertainties.
• Speculative traders can seek range-bound strategies until a clear trend from international signals emerges.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price	Forecast Range	Bias
Rajkot (IN)	$387–$393/MT	$387–$395/MT	Stable/Up
Odesa (UA, FCA 11.5%)	€0.26/kg	€0.25–€0.27/kg	Stable/Up
CBOT (US)	€0.23/kg	€0.23–€0.24/kg	Stable
Euronext (FR)	€0.29/kg	€0.28–€0.30/kg	Stable