Wheat Market Holds Steady: Signals of Demand Surge After Navratri

The global wheat market has entered a period of conspicuous stability, with minimal price movement witnessed in both domestic and international exchanges. Currently, wheat prices are holding at around $38.40 per quintal, reflecting a robust equilibrium between supply and demand. In local markets like Ahmedabad, arrivals remain steady at 1,000 quintals, and mill-quality wheat fetches slightly higher prices, indicative of unwavering industrial demand. On international platforms, benchmark Chicago wheat futures closed with a modest 0.12% gain, with overall market sentiment remaining neutral.

Behind this calm lies a combination of strong market fundamentals, stable weather conditions in key wheat-producing regions, and consistent logistical flows. Analysts are eyeing the post-Navratri period as a potential inflection point, anticipating heightened procurement activity from millers and traders. This could provide a tailwind for prices in the weeks ahead, especially if current weather trends persist and global stocks remain balanced. Sidelined traders are advised to watch closely for any shifts in market arrivals and weather-driven supply disruptions.

📈 Prices

Exchange / Location	Grade	Protein	Price (USD/quintal or EUR/kg)	Change	Market Sentiment
Ahmedabad (India)	Mill Quality	–	$39.20	Unchanged	Neutral
Ahmedabad (India)	Lokwan	–	$40.80 – $41.60	Unchanged	Neutral
Ahmedabad (India)	Tukdi	–	$40.80 – $41.60	Unchanged	Stable
CBOT	Soft Red Winter	11.5%	€0.21/kg	-0.02	Neutral
Euronext (Paris)	Bread Wheat	11.0%	€0.27/kg	-0.02	Slightly Bearish
Odesa (UA)	Bread Wheat	11.5%	€0.25/kg	Unchanged	Stable
Kyiv (UA)	Bread Wheat	11.5%	€0.24/kg	Unchanged	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Domestic Market: Arrivals are steady in Indian mandis, especially Ahmedabad, with no major supply shocks reported.
• International Market: Global wheat stocks remain ample, but major exporters (Ukraine, US, EU) continue to monitor geopolitical risks and export corridor developments.
• Demand: Demand is expected to rise post-Navratri due to procurement from millers and traders, supporting a possible price uptick.
• Speculation: Minimal speculative activity; most market activity driven by commercial end-users.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: The latest WASDE report reflects stable global carryover stocks with minor revisions to the EU and Russian outlook.
• Acreage: Acreage under wheat is steady; some EU and Black Sea regions have slightly reduced areas due to wet conditions, but overall global acreage is near normal.
• Inventories: Major producers (India, Russia, Australia) are reporting comfortable stocks, matching last year’s levels.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Favorable dry, slightly cool weather supports harvest and logistics; no major disruptions expected short-term.
• Black Sea Region: Weather remains broadly supportive, but any escalation in regional conflict or blockades could disrupt flows.
• EU: Damp conditions in parts of France and Germany may slow fieldwork but are not yet impacting yield outlook.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (Forecast)	End Stocks (mmt)	Comments
Russia	88 mmt	18 mmt	Harvest nearly complete, stable supplies
India	108 mmt	17 mmt	Stocks steady, strong domestic demand
US	50 mmt	16 mmt	Adequate, minor quality concerns
Ukraine	20 mmt	3 mmt	Export risks remain, corridor stable for now
EU	130 mmt	15 mmt	Mixed weather, stocks robust

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor post-Navratri demand from millers/traders for early signs of a price rally.
• Track weather conditions in EU and Black Sea for any late-season disruptions.
• Exporters should leverage stable prices to lock in sales for Q4 2025 delivery.
• Importers can continue hand-to-mouth buying until any firm upward trend emerges.
• Speculators: Neutral stance advised with low volatility and tight price range dominance.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Direction
Ahmedabad (India)	$38.40/qtl	$38.40–$39.00/qtl	Stable–Slightly Higher
CBOT (US)	€0.21/kg	€0.21–€0.22/kg	Stable
Euronext (Paris)	€0.27/kg	€0.26–€0.27/kg	Stable/Soft
Odesa (UA)	€0.25/kg	€0.24–€0.25/kg	Stable