Wheat Market in a Holding Pattern: Local Stability Amid Global Pressure

The wheat market continues to tread water, characterized by a prolonged spell of stability and minimal price volatility. Market participants across key regions such as Gondal, Rajkot, Himatnagar, and Surat report steady arrivals paired with modest mill demand, keeping prices tightly range-bound. While domestic wheat values remain fairly robust—Gondal and Rajkot both quoting between $360–$365 per ton and Himatnagar hovering near $368 per ton—global benchmarks have painted a slightly weaker picture in the latest trading sessions. Wheat indices on major exchanges slipped by roughly 1.25–1.5%, a signal that international sentiment is softening even as local support holds.

This external price pressure, coupled with cautious trade, has prevented any meaningful rally in Indian prices despite rising demand expectations ahead of upcoming festivals. Many traders now look to the near term with tempered optimism, anticipating that a seasonal surge in mill procurement could finally provide the upward momentum the market needs. In this complex, crosswind-filled landscape, the wheat market exemplifies a delicate balance between resilient fundamentals and global market headwinds.

📈 Prices: Key Exchange and Cash Market Overview

Location/Exchange	Grade	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Gondal (IN)	Domestic	$360–$365/ton	Steady	Neutral
Rajkot (IN)	Domestic	$365/ton	Steady	Neutral
Himatnagar (IN)	Domestic	$368/ton	Steady	Neutral
Surat (IN)	Domestic	$370/ton	Steady	Neutral
CBOT (US)	11.5% protein	€0.23/kg	0%	Weak
Euronext (FR)	11.0% protein	€0.29/kg	0%	Neutral
UA (Kyiv/Odesa)	9.5–12.5% protein	€0.20–€0.25/kg	-0.01 (10.50% only)	Mixed

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Steady arrivals in Indian mandis preventing inventory depletion.
• Mill demand remains subdued but is expected to rise ahead of festival season.
• Global benchmarks weakened (down ~1.25–1.5%), capping local upside.
• No significant speculative activity or sudden policy shifts observed in recent weeks.
• Import demand in some Asian and Middle Eastern countries remains strong due to climatic concerns and lower domestic output.

📊 Fundamentals: Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023/24 Output (MMT)	2023/24 Ending Stocks (MMT)	Latest Trend
India	112	10.0	Stable, good arrivals
Russia	91	8.0	Slightly lower on higher exports
EU	134	13.2	Stable, weather concern
US	50	16.5	Slight export uptick
Ukraine	21	3.2	Firm export program

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Northern India: Clear weather forecast for the next week, supporting ongoing procurement and stable supply.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Conditions remain favorable, with above-average rainfall—supportive for late stages of crop development.
• US Plains: No significant weather disruptions; moderate temperatures will aid fieldwork and ongoing harvest in the south.
• France & Western EU: Slightly above-average rainfall may delay harvest marginally, but upside yield risk is possible if rains persist.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain hedged positions if exposed to export/import contracts—volatility may increase with festival demand uptick.
• Watch for upside risk if Indian mill demand rises more sharply than expected or if global weather turns adverse.
• Monitor global benchmarks: Persistent weakness on CBOT/Euronext may pressure Indian prices, but festival-led consumption is a key short-term counterweight.
• Short-term trades favor range-bound strategies; long-term holds should track inventory and new-crop forecasts.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Level	Forecast (3 Days)
Gondal (IN)	$360–$365/ton	$361–$366/ton
Himatnagar (IN)	$368/ton	$368–$370/ton
CBOT	€0.23/kg	€0.22–€0.24/kg
Euronext	€0.29/kg	€0.28–€0.29/kg