Wheat Market in Flux: New Crop Pressure Drives Prices Lower as Harvest Nears

The global wheat market is currently experiencing a significant transition, with new crop wheat increasingly taking centre stage and pushing last year’s grain out of the spotlight. Demand for old crop wheat has plummeted, resulting in softer prices and fading interest. Buyers, including major importers and millers, have shifted their focus to the upcoming harvests in anticipation of an abundant supply, further weighing on new crop prices. Evidence from Ukrainian export hubs such as Odesa demonstrates this trend, as both milling and feed wheat prices for 2024 and 2025 harvests show a noticeable drop, reflecting not only current market sentiment but also an expectation of improved supply and possibly macroeconomic headwinds.

International exchanges mirror these developments, with the CBOT and Euronext futures showing mixed but predominantly downward momentum amid ample global stocks and relatively stable global demand. Additionally, changing weather patterns in the Black Sea region, North America, and Western Europe add further complexity as market participants weigh yield prospects against logistical constraints. In this environment, both producers and buyers must carefully monitor ongoing developments in weather, logistics, and policy. In the following sections, we explore the latest price indications, core market drivers, and actionable outlooks for global wheat trade.

📈 Prices

Origin	Location	Type / Protein	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Odesa	Milling, 11.5%	FCA	0.25	0.26	2025-06-12	🔻 Bearish
Ukraine	Kyiv	Milling, 11.5%	FCA	0.24	0.25	2025-06-12	🔻 Weak
Ukraine	Kyiv	Feed, 9.5%	FCA	0.23	0.23	2025-06-12	🔺 Stable
Ukraine	Odesa	Feed, 9.5%	FCA	0.24	0.24	2025-06-12	🔺 Stable
Ukraine	Odesa	Milling, 11.0% (FOB)	FOB	0.20	0.20	2025-06-05	🔺 Flat
Ukraine	Odesa	Milling, 10.5% (FOB)	FOB	0.21	0.20	2025-06-05	🔼 Slightly Up
Ukraine	Odesa	Milling, 12.5% (FOB)	FOB	0.21	0.21	2025-06-05	🔺 Flat
US (CBOT)	Washington D.C.	Milling, 11.5%	FOB	0.24	0.23	2025-06-05	🔼 Firm
France (Euronext)	Paris	Milling, 11.0%	FOB	0.28	0.27	2025-06-05	🔼 Slightly Up

Latest Buyer Indications (DAP, USD/MT):
2024 harvest: Odesa 12.5% = $230; 11.5% = $225; fodder = $210-215
2025 harvest: Odesa 12% = $210; 11.5% = $205; fodder = $195

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Strong anticipation of new crop supply in the Black Sea region (notably Ukraine and Russia) is weighing heavily on both old and new crop prices.
• Demand for old-crop wheat has evaporated as end-users and traders switch to the new harvest due to quality, logistical, and cost considerations.
• USDA’s most recent WASDE report points to globally ample ending stocks, though North American hard red winter areas have lingering dryness risks.
• Speculative activity has turned cautious, with money managers noticeably reducing long exposure on major exchanges.
• Feed wheat values remain generally under pressure, tracking high global maize availability and muted feed demand in several importing regions.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Data

• Global Stocks: Forecasts place 2024/25 ending wheat stocks near 260 MMT, on par with the last season; China and India hold ~50% of global inventories, while exporter stocks (US/EU/AUS/RU/UA/CAN) are tighter.
• Production: Black Sea region expected to rebound from weather-impacted 2023, but Russian crop size remains uncertain after spring frosts; EU sees average-to-above-average yield outlook.
• Exporters: Russia, EU, Canada, US, Argentina, and Australia remain the main market anchors, while Ukraine’s logistics and political risks continue to temper free-flowing supply.
• Importers: Egypt, Turkey, SE Asia, and MENA remain active but more price sensitive; some buying reduced on ample inventories and cautious currency outlooks.

Country	2023/24 Prod. (MMT)	2023/24 Stocks (MMT)	2024/25 Forecast Prod. (MMT)	2024/25 Forecast Stocks (MMT)
Russia	91	14	89	11
EU	127	15	129	17
Ukraine	22	4	24	4
US	48	15	47	13
Canada	34	5	32	6

☀️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia): Recent rains improved soil moisture, but uneven precipitation leaves pockets at risk; moderate to warm temperatures ahead, generally positive for early harvest potential.
• European Union: Mild weather pattern, with occasional rain showers expected, supports grain fill; modest yield upside if dryness in Spain and SE France does not intensify.
• US Plains: Mixed signals, with the southern Plains still dealing with soil moisture deficits. Harvest pressures are expected in Kansas and Oklahoma into next week.
• Canada: Spring wheat plantings progressing; cool start turning warmer, normal to slightly below-average yield outlook as long as timely rains persist.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Short-term pressure is likely to persist as new crop supply hits the market and buyers concentrate on fresh deliveries, especially from Ukraine, Russia, and the EU.
• Monitor Black Sea harvest results and Russian export policy closely, as surprises on either could cause sharp volatility.
• Feed wheat buyers should remain patient—ample maize and soft fundamentals suggest more downside risk in the coming weeks.
• Procurement teams: Lock in short-term requirements with optionality; avoid taking heavy long-term physical exposure until there is clarity on yield and logistics from the Black Sea and US harvests.
• Producers: Take advantage of any short-covering or weather-driven rallies for forward sales, especially for higher protein lots.

3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Region	Current Price (USD/MT)	3-Day Outlook
CBOT (US)	240	🔻 Slight Weakness amid harvest progress
Euronext (Paris)	280	🔼 Slightly Firmer on EU weather support
Odesa (Ukraine)	225	🔻 Soft as Black Sea supply expands