Wheat Market Outlook June 2025: Exports Drop Sharply and Uncertain Weather Adds Volatility

The wheat market enters June 2025 gripped by fresh uncertainty as Ukraine, one of the world’s major wheat exporters, reports a sharp fall in export volumes. According to Ukraine’s State Customs Service, wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year as of June 6 reached 15 million tons—down 15% from the same period last season, and only 92% of the export volume set in export agreements. Overall, Ukraine’s grain and pulses exports across the board are down 19% year over year. This contraction in supply comes against a background of resilient global demand and mixed output projections in other key regions, amplifying concerns about tightening wheat stocks globally and providing bullish undertones for prices. US and French wheat prices are showing upward pressure, while Ukrainian FOB prices remain stable to marginally firmer. Market participants are watchful of weather risks, particularly in the US Midwest and the Black Sea region, where dry and volatile conditions could further dent yields. Meanwhile, recent global stock figures and production forecasts underscore the market’s sensitivity to both supply disruptions and speculative fund positions. This shifting landscape is compelling traders, processors, and flour millers to recalibrate procurement and risk management strategies as the summer harvest approaches.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange/Location	Type	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
CBOT (US, Washington D.C.)	Protein min. 11.50%	0.24	+4.3%	Bullish
Euronext (FR, Paris)	Protein min. 11.00%	0.28	+3.7%	Bullish
Odesa (UA, FOB)	Protein min. 11.00%	0.20	0.0%	Steady
Odesa (UA, FOB)	Protein min. 10.50%	0.21	+5.0%	Firm
Odesa (UA, FCA)	Protein min. 11.50%	0.26	0.0%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Developments

• Ukraine’s exports: 15 Mt of wheat shipped so far in 2024/25 (down 15% y/y). 92% of total agreed export volume reached, suggesting limited remaining export availability for the summer months.
• US/Canada/EU: Steady to slightly lower production is expected in the US Plains and Canada due to persistent dryness, while EU harvest prospects are mixed, with Western Europe recovering from a wet spring and Eastern Europe facing heat risks.
• Global demand: Importers from North Africa and Asia remain active amid supply risk fears, with tenders showing steady purchasing interest—but with escalating price sensitivity.
• Flour exports: Collapse in Ukrainian flour exports (-302% y/y) is further tightening the wheat product markets.

📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: June WASDE shows world wheat ending stocks to fall to multi-year lows. Key adjustments include downward revisions for Black Sea and Australian output.
• Speculative activity: Managed funds on CBOT have aggressively reversed short positions in recent weeks, adding fuel to the rally.
• Inventories: Major exporters (US, EU, Ukraine) face multiyear low stocks-to-use ratios for 2024/25, supporting structurally tighter fundamentals.
• Policy risks: Black Sea logistics remain vulnerable due to geopolitical uncertainty and farmer protests in select EU member states threaten local logistics.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact on Yields

• US: Midwest wheat regions are forecast to remain drier than average in the coming week, heightening stress on late-developing Hard Red Winter wheat.
• Ukraine/Black Sea: Variable rainfall is expected, with the risk of localized drought limiting grain-fill in central and southern zones.
• Europe: Mixed conditions: France and Germany have seen rainfall recovery, whereas Southeastern Europe remains exposed to sustained heat events, risking yield drop-offs.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Projected Production (Mt)	2024/25 Projected Exports (Mt)	2023/24 Exports (Mt)
Ukraine	21.6*	16.2**	18.4
US	47	19.5	18.0
EU	129	36.0	35.2
Russia	83	50.0	48.0
Australia	27	18.0	21.5
China (importer)	137	–	10.0 (imports)

*Preliminary
**Maximum as per memorandum/agreement

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• End users (millers/feed producers): Consider locking in coverage for summer and early autumn as spot market tightness persists in the Black Sea/EU and freight costs may rise.
• Exporters: Monitor Ukrainian logistics and Black Sea geopolitical risks closely; potential positive price volatility if crop/port disruptions escalate.
• Speculators: Strengthening fundamentals and reversed fund positions suggest room for additional upside, especially if US weather deteriorates further.
• Importers: Diversify sourcing strategies to mitigate risks of further Black Sea supply shocks.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Location	Direction	Range (USD/kg)	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	⬆️	0.24 – 0.25	Firm/Bullish
Euronext (FR)	⬆️	0.28 – 0.29	Firm
Odesa (UA, FOB)	➡️	0.20 – 0.22	Steady/Low Upside

Volatility is likely as markets react to weather and export news. Coverage and flexibility remain crucial for participants.