Wheat Market Outlook: Record Procurement in India and Global Price Pressures Shape Summer Dynamics

The global wheat market enters summer 2025 with a complex mix of bullish supply news from India and persistent pressure on international prices. India’s wheat procurement for the 2024–25 season surged to a four-year high of 30 million tonnes, a feat largely achieved through Rajasthan’s robust late-season purchases. This recovery in Indian procurement, up over 60% from the lows struck two years ago, provides the country with ample buffer stocks to safeguard food security and intervene in the domestic market if needed. While Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh drove India’s gains with bonus payments above the Minimum Support Price (MSP), traditional procurement powerhouses like Punjab and Uttar Pradesh underperformed against targets.

Internationally, wheat pricing remains subdued. Ample supply from competing exporters; stable weather in the Black Sea region; and a firm US dollar are weighing on European and North American quotations. Ukrainian and Russian wheat offers are exerting downward pressure on world benchmarks, with both FCA and FOB prices showing slight week-on-week softening. Traders are closely tracking the evolving weather outlook before the Northern Hemisphere harvest peaks, amid concerns about patchy rains in parts of the US Midwest and dryness in southern Russia. With global production prospects still strong, volatility is likely to persist, but downside risks have increased as stocks are rebuilt.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Exchange/Location	Specification	Closing Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Ukraine/Kyiv (FCA)	min. 11.5% protein	0.24	0.00	Stable
Ukraine/Odesa (FCA)	min. 11.5% protein	0.25	0.00	Stable
Ukraine/Odesa (FCA)	min. 9.5% protein	0.23	-0.01	Softening
Ukraine/Kyiv (FCA)	min. 9.5% protein	0.22	-0.01	Softening
USA/CBOT (FOB)	min. 11.5% protein	0.22	0.00	Steady
France/Paris (FOB)	min. 11.0% protein	0.26	-0.01	Softening
Ukraine/Odesa (FOB)	min. 11.0% protein	0.19	-0.01	Weak
Ukraine/Odesa (FOB)	min. 10.5% protein	0.20	0.00	Stable
Ukraine/Odesa (FOB)	min. 12.5% protein	0.20	-0.01	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India’s Procurement Surge: The 2024–25 procurement of 30 million tonnes is the highest since 2021, providing a strong buffer for policy intervention. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh outperformed on bonus incentives, while Punjab and UP lagged their targets.
• USDA & Production Forecasts: India’s new wheat crop is estimated at a record 117.51 million tonnes, up sharply from recent years. As global production remains strong, the focus shifts to export competitiveness.
• Private Sector Purchases: Increased private procurement, particularly in Punjab, reduced the volume available for state stocks despite good harvests.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net short on major exchanges, anticipating continued supply pressure and limited upside for international prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Inventories

• India: Procurement—30 million tonnes (2024–25), up from 26.61m (2023–24) and 18.79m (2022–23). Production—117.51m tonnes (2024–25, record).
• Russia/Ukraine: Large expected harvests and aggressive export strategies continue to challenge global prices, especially for low- and mid-protein wheats.
• Europe (EU): French and German outputs are broadly steady, but quality concerns persist after wet June conditions.
• US: Production pacing on expectations, though localized drought persists in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Monsoon onset has been close to average; no major yield threat, further supporting India’s robust crop prospects.
• Black Sea Region: Moisture supplies remain sufficient for final grain fill; some dryness in southern Russia bears watching but not yet a material threat.
• US Midwest: Thunderstorms and hot spells create harvest pace variability; no widespread stress, but traders are alert for July heatwaves.
• Europe: Some disease/mold risk in NW France, but bulk of EU crop progressing satisfactorily.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mt)	Trend vs. Prior Year
India	117.5	21.8*	Significant Increase
Russia	87.0	19.7	Stable
EU	130.0	13.1	Slightly Lower
US	50.5	15.4	Flat
Ukraine	22.5	2.7	Lower
China	135.0	137.4	Flat

*Indian government figure, subject to revision

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bears may maintain pressure as ample new crop supply hits global channels and fund shorts persist.
• Physical buyers: Consider extending coverage as spot prices remain near seasonal lows—a window for procurement.
• Exporters: Price risk remains elevated; pro-active forward sales may be prudent given volatility around weather and policy signals.
• Watch for policy headlines from India: With strong stocks, sudden export ban relaxation or state tenders could move markets.
• Monitor Black Sea and US weather daily—emergent stress could spark a rally, but for now, fundamentals favor range-bound prices.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Region/Exchange	Spot Price (€/kg)	Bias (3-day)	Forecast Range (€/kg)
CBOT (US, FOB)	0.22	Steady / Weak	0.21 – 0.22
Euronext (Paris, FOB)	0.26	Soft	0.25 – 0.26
Ukraine (Odesa, FCA)	0.23	Softening	0.22 – 0.23
India (Domestic MSP, €/kg)	0.27*	Firm	0.27 – 0.28

*Converted from MSP at prevailing rate; actual trade flows low due to export restrictions