Wheat Market Report: Steady Prices with Cautious Optimism Amid Stable Arrivals

The global wheat market enters the new trading week with a sense of calm and cautious optimism. Across key markets in India, such as Dahod and Gondal, arrivals continued at a modest pace (1,000–1,800 quintals), which has helped maintain an equilibrium in prices despite typical fluctuations seen in periods of reduced inflow. In Madhya Pradesh and Gondal, wholesale wheat is trading in a close range of USD 3.52–3.96 per 20 kg—a testament to robust, yet unspectacular, buying from flour mills and wholesalers targeting the highest quality wheat.

On the world stage, wheat futures remain firm, supported by steady export demand, but traders are watching for fresh cues as global stocks and weather play into medium-term sentiment. With no major price swings and underlying demand intact, the atmosphere is marked by stability. Both domestic and international market players appear content to follow arrivals and global news closely, ready to adjust positions as the first signals of new trends emerge in weather patterns or governmental reports. This snapshot sets the stage for a dynamic, closely watched period ahead.

📈 Wheat Prices: Market Snapshot

Location	Type	Protein (%)	Purity (%)	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Sentiment
CBOT (US, Washington D.C.)	Wheat	11.50	98	FOB	0.22	0.22	Stable
Euronext (FR, Paris)	Wheat	11.00	98	FOB	0.28	0.28	Stable
UA (Odesa)	Wheat	11.00/12.50	98	FOB	0.20	0.20	Stable
UA (Odesa)	Wheat	10.50	95	FOB	0.21	0.20	Slightly Up
UA (Kyiv)	Wheat	11.50	98	FCA	0.24	0.24	Stable
UA (Odesa)	Wheat	11.50	98	FCA	0.25	0.25	Stable
UA (Kyiv)	Wheat	9.50	98	FCA	0.23	0.23	Stable
UA (Odesa)	Wheat	9.50	98	FCA	0.24	0.24	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• India (domestic): Market arrivals remain limited but steady (1,000–1,800 quintals). Retail and wholesale demand is robust, especially from flour mills, supporting price stability.
• Global: Export demand remains firm, though not exceptionally strong—most buyers are cautious, awaiting clarity on harvest size and export policies.
• Premiums are observed for high-quality wheat, especially in wholesale channels. Medium grades saw moderate pricing with less volatility.

📊 Key Fundamentals

• USDA reports indicate stable global inventories, with no major shocks anticipated in the short term.
• Crop acreage in major exporting regions (US, EU, Ukraine) aligns closely with previous season; minor increases in Ukraine post-conflict are monitored, but logistics remain a challenge.
• Speculative positioning on futures markets is neutral to mildly bullish, as traders await weather and export updates.

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• US Midwest: Favorable rainfall over the last week supports wheat development. Mild temperatures, low drought risk.
• EU (France): Mixed prospects—recent heat waves create concern, but timely showers in Northern France are reassuring. Crop stress in southern areas possible.
• Ukraine & Russia: Intermittent showers aid crops, yet hot spells persist in southern regions. Rapid weather changes could affect late-filling yields.
• India: Monsoon has performed close to average, underpinning crop prospects. Localized dry patches in central and western zones may limit upside.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Table

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)	Key Notes
US	49.6	19.9	Stable planting; improved yields
EU	134.1	16.2	Southern heat risk, mostly adequate reserves
Ukraine	21.0	4.1	Recovery in planted area, logistics constraints
India	110.5	14.5	Strong monsoon supports above-average crop
China	136.6	138.4	Largest global producer/stockholder
Russia	83.5	11.2	Volatile weather, strong export pace

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Watch for domestic arrival rates and quality premiums in India for near-term price triggers.
• Monitor Midwest and Black Sea weather dynamics for directional cues—any drought/flood headline could spur volatility.
• Export policy shifts (India/Russia/Ukraine) can rapidly change trade flows and price sentiment—stay alert for government announcements.
• End users: Consider forward bookings for high-quality grades as premiums persist.
• Traders: Strategy should focus on flexibility and short-term plays with weather-driven headlines.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range	Sentiment
CBOT	Washington D.C.	0.22	0.21–0.23	Stable/Narrow Range
Euronext	Paris	0.28	0.27–0.29	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Odesa	0.20	0.20–0.22	Slight Upside

Global wheat market is poised for low volatility and price stability in the short term, but traders should watch for sudden shifts in arrivals and early weather surprises for actionable opportunities.