Wheat Market Squeezed: Repeated Tender Failures Signal Sourcing Struggles Amid Stable Prices

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The wheat market continues to navigate a challenging environment marked by procurement hurdles and subdued price movement. Jordan’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has once again cancelled a tender for 120,000 tons of milling wheat, with five major global suppliers unable to strike a deal. This string of tender failures underscores mounting difficulties in securing supplies, not only for Jordan but also as a signal of a tighter global marketplace in the second half of 2025.

The market tone remains cautious, with buyers hesitant to commit amid continuing geopolitical instability, fluctuating shipping costs, and weather uncertainties in key growing areas. Although wheat prices at major exchanges have shown little week-on-week change, underlying sentiment reflects anxiety around future production risk and logistical bottlenecks, especially from Black Sea origins. Traders and end-users are now closely watching weather developments and policy signals, with the next Jordan tender set for August 21, 2025. All eyes turn to how these dynamics shape availability and cost for the new marketing year.

📈 Wheat Price Overview

Origin Exchange/Location Protein Delivery Terms Price (€/kg) Prev. Price (€/kg) Weekly Change Sentiment
US CBOT min. 11.5% FOB 0.22 0.22 0.0% Neutral
France Paris min. 11.0% FOB 0.28 0.28 0.0% Neutral
Ukraine Odesa min. 11.0% FOB 0.20 0.20 0.0% Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

  • Jordan Tender Cancelled: No deal reached despite wide supplier interest. Recurring cancellations hint at price resistance and quality fears.
  • USDA Reports: Recent WASDE highlights slightly lower global wheat ending stocks for 2024/2025, driven by downgraded Russian and Ukrainian output.
  • Speculative Positioning: Managed money maintains a cautious long stance on wheat amid modest backwardation in futures curves.
  • Regional Policy Risk: Increasing export restrictions and logistical constraints from Black Sea exporters remain a live risk.
  • Key Importers: Demand from North Africa and Middle Eastern countries remains robust but price-sensitive.

📊 Fundamental Data & Global Comparison

Country/Region 2024/25 Production (Mt) 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt) Market Share Export (%)
Russia 81 13.5 20
EU 131 11.2 17
US 48 16.4 13
Ukraine 22 2.6 7
China 137 142 Minor
India 106 15 Minor

🌦️ Weather Outlook: Impact on Key Regions

  • US Plains: Forecasts call for normal to above-average precipitation, aiding late-maturing summer wheat.
  • Black Sea: Mixed signals—southern Russia remains dry, raising yield risks; Ukraine and eastern Romania see much-needed scattered showers.
  • EU (France, Germany): Recent rains stabilize crops after early summer dryness, but quality remains under question as harvest progresses.

📆 Wheat Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations

  • Expect price sideways-to-firm in the near term amid thin physical deals and unresolved North African/Mideast import tenders.
  • Monitor upcoming weather data in Black Sea/EU regions for late-season yield impact.
  • Spot buyers should consider securing partial needs—price drops limited by global stocks outlook.
  • Exporters with FOB Black Sea capacity may benefit from intra-regional price volatility and could lock premiums on prompt shipments.
  • Watch for policy changes: further Russian or Ukrainian export restrictions could spark short-term rally.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange Current Price (€/kg) Forecast Range (€/kg) Trend
CBOT, US (FOB) 0.22 0.22 – 0.23 Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Euronext, FR (FOB) 0.28 0.28 – 0.29 Neutral
Odesa, UA (FOB) 0.20 0.20 – 0.21 Neutral