Wheat Market Steadies: Stabilizing Prices, Steady Supplies, and Bullish Underpinnings

The wheat market stands at a remarkable equilibrium point, marked by relative price stability despite ongoing volatility in the broader commodity sector. Over recent sessions, prices have remained range-bound—a sign of ongoing support from government tender activity and a lack of disruptive supply shocks. Medium-quality wheat in key domestic markets traded between $38.64–$39.00 per quintal, while premium wheat enjoyed a slight premium, realizing values up to $39.48 per quintal.

Volume of arrivals, notably in central trading hubs like Rajkot (2,300 quintals) and Gondal (1,800 quintals), shows no major shifts in supply, underpinning current firmness. Internationally, mild bullishness is reflected in a 1.2% uptick in CBOT wheat, driven by slightly firmer global fundamentals. Both millers and exporters are closely watching international trends, local harvest quality, and government procurement strategies as they make short-term buying decisions. In this context, market participants are advised to weigh steady arrivals and tender-driven support against external factors such as speculative positioning and global weather uncertainties, which could shape price trajectories moving forward.

📈 Prices & Market Action

Origin	Protein (%)	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Change
UA	9.50	Kyiv	FCA	0.22	0.22	0.0%
UA	11.50	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25	0.0%
UA	11.50	Kyiv	FCA	0.24	0.24	0.0%
UA	9.50	Odesa	FCA	0.23	0.24	-4.2%
US (CBOT)	11.50	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.23	0.23	0.0%
FR (Euronext)	11.00	Paris	FOB	0.29	0.29	0.0%
UA	11.00	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	0.0%
UA	10.50	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	0.0%
UA	12.50	Odesa	FOB	0.21	0.21	0.0%

• India Key Markets: $38.64–$39.48/quintal (medium to premium quality)
• CBOT: $5.30/bushel, +1.2%

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

• Arrivals steady in main markets: Rajkot (2,300 qt), Gondal (1,800 qt).
• No signs of a supply glut; inventory turnover tied primarily to local procurement and government tenders.
• Export volumes from key origins (Ukraine, France, US) remain robust, but logistics and geopolitical risks persist.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Government Policy: Ongoing tenders are supporting domestic price levels and providing a floor amid otherwise benign fundamentals.
• Inventories: No significant buildup or drawdowns; market is well-calibrated by arrivals and procurement.
• Speculative Positioning: CBOT’s mild upward movement suggests moderate speculative buying interest, but no excessive froth.
• Comparative Benchmark — Previous Report: Latest data confirm continued steadiness after minor fluctuations seen last month. Arrival and price ranges have tightened, indicating reduced volatility.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Black Sea Region: Mild, timely rains have benefited late-planted areas, but dryness lingers in some southern stretches. Outlook for next 7 days: generally favorable, but watch for short-term hot spells.
• India: Post-monsoon weather stable; no major threats to harvest quality expected in the coming week.
• US Plains: Weather expected to turn drier, potentially tightening next cycle’s sowing window. So far, impact remains contained.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023 Output (mmt)	2023/24 Ending Stocks (mmt)	Notes
China	137	139	Stocks remain high, limited exports
India	110	32	Tender-driven market
Russia	92	12	Robust exports, weather risks
EU	134	14	Stable exports, moderate supplies
US	49	16	Stocks low, price-sensitive
Ukraine	23	3	Logistics vulnerable

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Hold positions; expect stability as government tenders underpin the market.
• Medium-term: Monitor weather in Black Sea and US Plains; a change could disrupt the calm.
• Risk: Watch for export policy changes and unexpected weather events—potential triggers for volatility.
• Buyers: Consider incremental cover, especially if drawing from Ukraine or India, where logistics could tighten.
• Sellers: Advance sales only on price upticks; take advantage of any CBOT-driven spikes.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Regional Exchanges)

Exchange	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Direction
CBOT	$5.30/bushel	$5.31–$5.37/bu	⬆️ Mild upward bias
Euronext (Paris)	€0.29/kg	€0.29–€0.295/kg	⏸ Stable/slight uptick
Odesa (UA)	€0.20/kg	€0.20–€0.21/kg	⏸ Sideways