Wheat Market Surges Amid Record Indian Output and Steady Global Prices

The global wheat market is currently navigating a period of remarkable supply growth, led by India’s record-breaking wheat harvest. India’s production for the 2024-25 crop year has soared to 117.51 million tonnes (mt), a 3.7% increase over the previous year, contributing to an all-time high national foodgrain output. This surge is attributed to favorable weather, expanded acreage, and strong policy support. While India’s output is pivotal for global supply, international wheat prices remain relatively steady, reflecting both the robust harvests in key regions and ongoing uncertainties in Black Sea exports. The U.S. and French wheat markets show little week-on-week price movement, signaling a wait-and-see approach from traders as the Northern Hemisphere harvest approaches. Meanwhile, Ukrainian wheat prices display mild softness, with minor declines in lower-protein grades, hinting at competitive pressures and ample supply. Weather remains a critical watchpoint: forecasts for the U.S. Plains, EU, and Black Sea regions are broadly favorable, supporting yield prospects. However, localized heat waves and flooding risks could yet impact quality and harvest logistics. With India’s strong output offsetting minor setbacks elsewhere, global wheat inventories are set to rise, potentially capping further price gains. The market’s focus now shifts to weather developments, harvest progress, and export policy signals from major producers.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Closing Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US (CBOT)	Protein min. 11.50%	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.23	0.00	Neutral
France (Euronext)	Protein min. 11.00%	Paris	FOB	0.27	0.00	Neutral
Ukraine	Protein min. 11.00%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.00	Slightly Bearish
Ukraine	Protein min. 10.50%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	-0.01	Bearish
Ukraine	Protein min. 12.50%	Odesa	FOB	0.21	0.00	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Record wheat production at 117.51 mt (+3.7% y/y), supporting global supply growth.
• US & EU: Stable output expectations; harvests underway with mostly favorable weather.
• Ukraine: Steady export pace; minor price softening as new crop approaches.
• Global Inventories: Expected to rise due to strong Indian and Black Sea production.
• Demand: Steady global demand, with some importers waiting for further price declines as harvest peaks.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & Government Reports: India’s third advance estimate confirms larger-than-expected wheat and foodgrain output.
• Acreage: Expanded wheat area in India and steady acreage in the US and EU.
• Speculative Positioning: Neutral; funds are waiting for weather and harvest data before making large moves.
• Policy: No major export restrictions reported; India’s surplus may increase global competition if export bans are relaxed.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India: Monsoon onset is timely, supporting post-harvest activities and next crop planning.
• US Plains: Mild temperatures and occasional showers, beneficial for late-maturing wheat.
• EU (France, Germany): Mostly favorable, with some heat stress risk in southern regions.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Warm and dry, but within normal range; watch for late-June storms.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Output (mt)	2023/24 Output (mt)	Change (%)	Stocks (mt)
India	117.51	113.29	+3.7	Rising
US	49.3*	47.3*	+4.2*	Stable
EU	133.5*	130.2*	+2.5*	Stable
Ukraine	22.2*	21.7*	+2.3*	Ample
China	137.7*	136.6*	+0.8*	High

*Estimates based on latest USDA and government data.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor weather in Black Sea and EU regions for potential late-season risks.
• Watch for policy moves from India regarding wheat exports; surplus could pressure prices if bans are lifted.
• Buyers should consider gradual coverage as prices remain stable and inventories rise.
• Sellers may face increased competition from Indian and Black Sea wheat in Q3 2025.
• Speculators: Stay neutral until clearer weather and harvest data emerge.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (USD/kg)	Forecast Range (USD/kg)	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	0.23	0.22 – 0.24	Stable
Euronext (France)	0.27	0.26 – 0.28	Stable
Odesa (Ukraine)	0.20	0.19 – 0.21	Slightly Bearish